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2021/12/4
Japan.R 2021
@dropout009
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TVISION INSIGHTS
Twitter: @dropout009
Speaker Deck: dropout009
Blog: https://dropout009.hatenablog.com/
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No content
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CM
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CM
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0 してない
1 してない
2 してる
2 してる
… …
0 20%
1 50%
2 70%
3 80%
… …
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TVISION INSIGHTS CM
CM
•
• CM CM
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CM
0
1
2
2
…
してない
してない
してる
してる
…
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No content
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CM
• 𝑖 𝑖 = 1, … , 𝑁
• 𝐴!
𝑖 CM 1 0
• 𝑎 CM
𝑎 =
1
𝑁
%
!"#
$
𝐴!
CM
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CM
𝔼 𝑎 = 𝔼
1
𝑁
*
!"#
$
𝐴!
=
1
𝑁
*
!"#
$
𝔼 𝐴!
=
1
𝑁
*
!"#
$
Pr(𝐴! = 1)
=
1
𝑁
*
!"#
$
*
%"&
'
(
Pr(𝐴! = 1 ∣ 𝐹! = 𝑓) Pr(𝐹! = 𝑓)
𝑖 CM 𝑓
CM
𝐹!
𝑖 CM 𝐹!
= 1, … , 2
𝐹
𝑖 CM 𝑓
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𝔼 𝑎 = *
%"&
'
(
Pr(𝐴 = 1 ∣ 𝐹 = 𝑓) Pr(𝐹 = 𝑓)
CM 𝑓 CM CM 𝑓
CM
•
•
𝔼 𝑎 ∣ 𝑆 = 𝑠 = ∑%"&
'
( Pr(𝐴 = 1 ∣ 𝐹 = 𝑓, 𝑆 = 𝑠) Pr(𝐹 = 𝑓 ∣ 𝑆 = 𝑠)）
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CM
𝑎)
= *
%"&
'
(
𝛽%
𝑠%,)
+ 𝜖)
• 𝑡 𝑡 = 1, … , 𝑇
• 𝑎) 𝑡 CM
• 𝑠%,) 𝑡 𝑓
• 𝛽%
𝑓 CM
• 𝜖)
CM 𝑇
𝔼 𝑎 = $
!"#
$
%
Pr(𝐴 = 1 ∣ 𝐹 = 𝑓) Pr(𝐹 = 𝑓)
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min
+!,…,+"
#
*
)"#
-
𝑎) − *
%"&
'
(
𝛽%𝑠%,)
.
s. t. 0 ≤ 𝛽&
≤ 𝛽#
≤ ⋯ ≤ 𝛽'
(
≤ 1
• 𝛽%
0 1
• CM
𝛽& ≤ 𝛽# ≤ ⋯ ≤ 𝛽'
(
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Pr 𝐴 = 1 ∣ 𝐹 = 𝑓 = 1 − 1 − 𝜃 1 − 𝜋 #
CM
• 𝜃
• CM 1 CM 𝜋
𝑓 1 − 𝜋 %
• CM 1
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𝑎)
= *
%"&
'
(
1 − 1 − 𝜃 1 − 𝜋 % 𝑠%,)
+ 𝜖)
= 1 − 1 − 𝜃 *
%"&
'
(
1 − 𝜋 %𝑠%,) + 𝜖)
• 𝑡 𝑡 = 1, … , 𝑇
• 𝑎) 𝑡 CM
• 𝑠%,) 𝑡 𝑓
• 𝜃
• 𝜋 CM 1 CM
• 𝜖)
𝔼 𝑎 = $
!"#
$
%
Pr(𝐴 = 1 ∣ 𝐹 = 𝑓) Pr(𝐹 = 𝑓)
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# A tibble: 20 × 8
t awareness_prop s_0 s_1 s_2 s_3 s_4 s_5
1 1 0.446 0.500 0.500 0 0 0 0
2 2 0.639 0.247 0.499 0.254 0 0 0
3 3 0.746 0.122 0.373 0.376 0.128 0 0
4 4 0.814 0.0624 0.249 0.370 0.249 0.0692 0
5 5 0.852 0.0353 0.156 0.303 0.308 0.163 0.0342
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min
&!,…,&"
#
$
)"*
+
𝑎)
− $
!"#
$
%
𝛽!
𝑠!,)
,
s. t. 0 ≤ 𝛽# ≤ 𝛽* ≤ ⋯ ≤ 𝛽$
%
≤ 1
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NLS
awareness_prop ~ 1 – (1 - theta) * (1 - pi)^0 * s_0
- (1 - theta) * (1 - pi)^1 * s_1
- (1 - theta) * (1 - pi)^2 * s_2
- (1 - theta) * (1 - pi)^3 * s_3
- (1 - theta) * (1 - pi)^4 * s_4
- (1 - theta) * (1 - pi)^5 * s_5
𝑎! = 1 − 1 − 𝜃 )
"#$
%
&
1 − 𝜋 "𝑠",! + 𝜖!
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• NLS
•
• 5
• 1 − 1 − 0.2 1 − 0.3 !
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• NLS
•
• 20
• 0.1, 0.8, 0.85, 0.9, 0.95, 1
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No content
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• CM
•
CM
•
•
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𝑎! = 1 − 1 − 𝜃 )
"#$
%
&
1 − 𝜋 "𝑠",! + 𝜖!
𝜃 ∼ Beta 𝛼(, 𝛽(
𝜋 ∼ Beta 𝛼), 𝛽)
𝜖! ∼ 𝒩(0, 𝜎*)
Beta 1, 1
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CM
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R