大規模購買ログの時系列解析に基づくLTV予測

by Dentsu Digital Tech Blog

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େن໛ߪങϩάͷ࣌ܥྻղੳʹ جͮ͘-57༧ଌ ઒ാޫر দݪ༃ࢠ ຊాਸਓ ࠓҪ༏࡞ ాౢ༏थ ᓎҪอࢤ େࡕେֶ࢈ۀՊֶݚڀॴ גࣜձࣾి௨σδλϧ

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എܠ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"* 利益を上げるには？顧客満⾜度を上げるには？

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എܠ • $VTUPNFS-JGFUJNF7BMVF $-7 -57 • ސ٬ੜ֔Ձ஋ • ϚʔέςΟϯάࢦඪ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD ͋Δސ٬͕΋ͨΒ͢ ૯རӹ +4"* ฏۉߪೖֹۚ ߪങස౓ ސ٬ੜଘظؒ

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എܠ • -57ʢސ٬ੜ֔Ձ஋ʣ͕ߴ͍ • ސ٬ຬ଍౓͕ߴ͍ • ܧଓతʹαʔϏε͕ར༻͞Ε͍ͯΔ • ৽نސ٬֫ಘʹ͸ίετ͕͔͔Δ • -57༧ଌ • ޮՌతͳ༧ࢉ഑෼ʢ޿ࠂɺαʔϏεʣ • ച্ߴͷݟੵ΋Γʢඃܖ໿ܕͷαʔϏεͰ͸ݟੵ΋Γ͕೉͍͠ʣ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD

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໨త • (JWFO ߪങཤྺσʔλ • $IBMMFOHF -57༧ଌ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD

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ൃද಺༰ • ໨త • ໰୊ఆٛ • ఏҊख๏ • ఏҊΞϧΰϦζϜ • ධՁ࣮ݧ • ·ͱΊ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"*

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໰୊ఆٛ • ߪങཤྺσʔλ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD 5JNFTUBNQ $VTUPNFS*% 1SPEVDU*% 2VBOUJUZ 5PUBM1SJDF " 'PPE = # #PPL = " 4IPFT = $ &MFDUSPOJDT = ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ

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໰୊ఆٛ • -57༧ଌ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD

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ൃද಺༰ • ໨త • ໰୊ఆٛ • ఏҊख๏ • ఏҊΞϧΰϦζϜ • ධՁ࣮ݧ • ·ͱΊ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"*

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ఏҊख๏ɿ֓ཁ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD -57༧ଌ +4"* ސ٬ಛੑͷ෼ੳ ߪങಛੑͷ෼ੳ ߪങཤྺ (JWFO )JEEFO

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ఏҊख๏ • ސ٬ͷજࡏతͳߪങಛੑͷݕग़ • ΞΠσΞ̍ɿςϯιϧղੳ • ސ٬ಛੑʹجͮ͘-57༧ଌ • ΞΠσΞ̎ɿ3'.෼ੳ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"*

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ސ٬ಛੑͷݕग़ • (JWFO ߪങཤྺσʔλ • 'JOE ސ٬ಛੑ ∈ ℝ!×# +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD

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ΞΠσΞɿςϯιϧղੳ • ߪങཤྺ ˠ֊ςϯιϧ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"* 5JNFTUBNQ $VTUPNFS*% 1SPEVDU*% 2VBOUJUZ 5PUBM1SJDF " 'PPE = # #PPL = " 4IPFT = $ &MFDUSPOJDT = ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ $VTUPN FS 1SPEVDU 5JNF 5FOTPS ∈ ℤ$ ×× FH DVTUPNFS"CPVHIU4IPFTPO+VOF

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ΞΠσΞɿςϯιϧղੳ • ֊ςϯιϧ ˠ τϐοΫ෼ղ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD $ VTUPN FS 1SPEVDU 5JNF 5FOTPS ∈ ℤ$ ×× ≈ + + ⋯ 5PQJD" 5PQJD# 5PQJD$

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ΞΠσΞɿςϯιϧղੳ • ֊ςϯιϧ ˠ τϐοΫ෼ղ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD $ VTUPN FS 1SPEVDU 5JNF ≈ × (JCCTTBNQMJOH 5FOTPS ∈ ℤ$ ××

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ސ٬ಛੑʹجͮ͘-57༧ଌ • (JWFO ސ٬ಛੑ ∈ ℝ!×# • 'JOE -57 DVTUPNFSMJGFUJNFWBMVF 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"* $VTUPNFST 5PQJDT

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ΞΠσΞ̎ɿ3'.Ϟσϧ • 3'.ࢦඪɿ • 3FDFODZɿ௚ۙͷߪങ͔Βͷܦա೔਺ • 'SFRVFODZɿߪങස౓ • .POFUBSZɿฏۉߪങֹۚ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD #(/#%Ϟσϧ ((Ϟσϧ #(/#%Ϟσϧ ߪೖճ਺ɿϙΞιϯ෼෍ ࣄલ෼෍ɿΨϯϚ෼෍ , ཭୤֬཰ɿزԿ෼෍ ࣄલ෼෍ɿϕʔλ෼෍ , ℎ ߪങֹۚɿΨϯϚ෼෍ , ࣄલ෼෍ɿΨϯϚ෼෍ , ((Ϟσϧ , , , ℎ, , ,

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ΞΠσΞ̎ɿ3'.Ϟσϧ • ύϥϝʔλਪఆ = exp (( + ⋯ + ## +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD $VTUPNFST 5PQJDT ∈ , , , ℎ, , , 1BSBNFUFST 5PQJDT L: 負の対数尤度

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ൃද಺༰ • ໨త • ໰୊ఆٛ • ఏҊख๏ • ධՁ࣮ݧ • ·ͱΊ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"*

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ධՁ࣮ݧ • σʔληοτ • ௨ൢαΠτΦϜχ̓ͷߪങཤྺ • ݸਓΞΧ΢ϯτʢ๏ਓʣ • ౦ژ౎ • ߪങཤྺɿ݅ • ސ٬ɿਓ • ධՁํ๏ • d • Ϟσϧֶश༻αϯϓϧ • d • ςετ-57ࢉग़༻αϯϓϧ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"* https://7net.omni7.jp/top

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࣮ݧ݁ՌɿτϐοΫ෼ੳ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"* 5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD

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࣮ݧ݁Ռɿ࣌ܥྻύλʔϯ • 5PQJD ݄ɾ݄̍̎ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD

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࣮ݧ݁Ռɿ࣌ܥྻύλʔϯ • 5PQJD ฏ೔ɾि຤ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD

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࣮ݧ݁Ռɿ-57༧ଌਫ਼౓ • #5:%ɿ 3'.ࢦඪ • $#5:%ɿސ٬ಛੑΛ࢖༻ • ʢ஍Ҭɼ೥୅ɼੑผʣ • 5#5:%ɿఏҊख๏ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD

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·ͱΊ • -57༧ଌͷͨΊͷ৽ͨͳϞσϧΛఏҊ • େن໛ߪങϩάσʔλ͔Βಛ௃తͳύλʔϯΛൃݟ • -57༧ଌਫ਼౓Λ໿̔ˋվળ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"*

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Ҿ༻ • IUUQTJDPPPONPOPDPN 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"*