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大規模購買ログの時系列解析に基づくLTV予測
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Dentsu Digital Tech Blog
June 22, 2020
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大規模購買ログの時系列解析に基づくLTV予測
Dentsu Digital Tech Blog
June 22, 2020
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Transcript
େنߪങϩάͷ࣌ܥྻղੳʹ جͮ͘-57༧ଌ ാޫر দݪ༃ࢠ ຊాਸਓ ࠓҪ༏࡞ ాౢ༏थ ᓎҪอࢤ େࡕେֶ࢈ۀՊֶݚڀॴ גࣜձࣾి௨σδλϧ
എܠ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"* 利益を上げる には? 顧客満⾜度を 上げるには?
എܠ • $VTUPNFS-JGFUJNF7BMVF $-7 -57 • ސ٬ੜ֔Ձ • ϚʔέςΟϯάࢦඪ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD
͋Δސ٬͕ͨΒ͢ ૯རӹ +4"* ฏۉߪೖֹۚ ߪങස ސ٬ੜଘظؒ
എܠ • -57ʢސ٬ੜ֔Ձʣ͕ߴ͍ • ސ٬ຬ͕ߴ͍ • ܧଓతʹαʔϏε͕ར༻͞Ε͍ͯΔ • ৽نސ٬֫ಘʹίετ͕͔͔Δ •
-57༧ଌ • ޮՌతͳ༧ࢉʢࠂɺαʔϏεʣ • ച্ߴͷݟੵΓʢඃܖܕͷαʔϏεͰݟੵΓ͕͍͠ʣ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD
త • (JWFO ߪങཤྺσʔλ • $IBMMFOHF -57༧ଌ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD
ൃද༰ • త • ఆٛ • ఏҊख๏ • ఏҊΞϧΰϦζϜ •
ධՁ࣮ݧ • ·ͱΊ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"*
ఆٛ • ߪങཤྺσʔλ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD 5JNFTUBNQ $VTUPNFS*% 1SPEVDU*% 2VBOUJUZ
5PUBM1SJDF " 'PPE = # #PPL = " 4IPFT = $ &MFDUSPOJDT = ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ
ఆٛ • -57༧ଌ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD
ൃද༰ • త • ఆٛ • ఏҊख๏ • ఏҊΞϧΰϦζϜ •
ධՁ࣮ݧ • ·ͱΊ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"*
ఏҊख๏ɿ֓ཁ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD -57༧ଌ +4"* ސ٬ಛੑͷੳ ߪങಛੑͷੳ ߪങཤྺ (JWFO )JEEFO
ఏҊख๏ • ސ٬ͷજࡏతͳߪങಛੑͷݕग़ • ΞΠσΞ̍ɿςϯιϧղੳ • ސ٬ಛੑʹجͮ͘-57༧ଌ • ΞΠσΞ̎ɿ3'.ੳ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD
+4"*
ސ٬ಛੑͷݕग़ • (JWFO ߪങཤྺσʔλ • 'JOE ސ٬ಛੑ ∈ ℝ!×# +4"*
4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD
ΞΠσΞɿςϯιϧղੳ • ߪങཤྺ ˠ֊ςϯιϧ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"* 5JNFTUBNQ $VTUPNFS*% 1SPEVDU*%
2VBOUJUZ 5PUBM1SJDF " 'PPE = # #PPL = " 4IPFT = $ &MFDUSPOJDT = ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ $VTUPN FS 1SPEVDU 5JNF 5FOTPS ∈ ℤ$ ×× FH DVTUPNFS"CPVHIU4IPFTPO+VOF
ΞΠσΞɿςϯιϧղੳ • ֊ςϯιϧ ˠ τϐοΫղ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD $ VTUPN
FS 1SPEVDU 5JNF 5FOTPS ∈ ℤ$ ×× ≈ + + ⋯ 5PQJD" 5PQJD# 5PQJD$
ΞΠσΞɿςϯιϧղੳ • ֊ςϯιϧ ˠ τϐοΫղ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD $ VTUPN
FS 1SPEVDU 5JNF ≈ × (JCCTTBNQMJOH 5FOTPS ∈ ℤ$ ××
ސ٬ಛੑʹجͮ͘-57༧ଌ • (JWFO ސ٬ಛੑ ∈ ℝ!×# • 'JOE -57 DVTUPNFSMJGFUJNFWBMVF
4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"* $VTUPNFST 5PQJDT
ΞΠσΞ̎ɿ3'.Ϟσϧ • 3'.ࢦඪɿ • 3FDFODZɿۙͷߪങ͔Βͷܦա • 'SFRVFODZɿߪങස • .POFUBSZɿฏۉߪങֹۚ +4"*
4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD #(/#%Ϟσϧ ((Ϟσϧ #(/#%Ϟσϧ ߪೖճɿϙΞιϯ ࣄલɿΨϯϚ , ֬ɿزԿ ࣄલɿϕʔλ , ℎ ߪങֹۚɿΨϯϚ , ࣄલɿΨϯϚ , ((Ϟσϧ , , , ℎ, , ,
ΞΠσΞ̎ɿ3'.Ϟσϧ • ύϥϝʔλਪఆ = exp (( + ⋯ + ##
+4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD $VTUPNFST 5PQJDT ∈ , , , ℎ, , , 1BSBNFUFST 5PQJDT L: 負の対数尤度
ൃද༰ • త • ఆٛ • ఏҊख๏ • ධՁ࣮ݧ •
·ͱΊ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"*
ධՁ࣮ݧ • σʔληοτ • ௨ൢαΠτΦϜχ̓ͷߪങཤྺ • ݸਓΞΧϯτʢ๏ਓʣ • ౦ژ •
ߪങཤྺɿ݅ • ސ٬ɿਓ • ධՁํ๏ • d • Ϟσϧֶश༻αϯϓϧ • d • ςετ-57ࢉग़༻αϯϓϧ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"* https://7net.omni7.jp/top
࣮ݧ݁ՌɿτϐοΫੳ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"* 5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD
5PQJD 5PQJD
࣮ݧ݁Ռɿ࣌ܥྻύλʔϯ • 5PQJD ݄ɾ݄̍̎ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD
࣮ݧ݁Ռɿ࣌ܥྻύλʔϯ • 5PQJD ฏɾि +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD
࣮ݧ݁Ռɿ-57༧ଌਫ਼ • #5:%ɿ 3'.ࢦඪ • $#5:%ɿސ٬ಛੑΛ༻ • ʢҬɼɼੑผʣ • 5#5:%ɿఏҊख๏
+4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD
·ͱΊ • -57༧ଌͷͨΊͷ৽ͨͳϞσϧΛఏҊ • େنߪങϩάσʔλ͔ΒಛతͳύλʔϯΛൃݟ • -57༧ଌਫ਼Λ̔ˋվળ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"*
Ҿ༻ • IUUQTJDPPPONPOPDPN 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"*