大規模購買ログの時系列解析に基づくLTV予測

Transcript

1. େن໛ߪങϩάͷ࣌ܥྻղੳʹ جͮ͘-57༧ଌ ઒ാޫر দݪ༃ࢠ ຊాਸਓ ࠓҪ༏࡞ ాౢ༏थ ᓎҪอࢤ େࡕେֶ࢈ۀՊֶݚڀॴ גࣜձࣾి௨σδλϧ
2. എܠ 4BLVSBJ
   -BC
   
   %FOUTV
   %JHJUBM
   *OD +4"*  利益を上げる には？ 顧客満⾜度を 上げるには？
3. എܠ • $VTUPNFS
   -JGFUJNF
   7BMVF
   $-7
   -57 • ސ٬ੜ֔Ձ஋ • ϚʔέςΟϯάࢦඪ 4BLVSBJ
   -BC
   
   %FOUTV
   %JHJUBM
   *OD ͋Δސ٬͕΋ͨΒ͢ ૯རӹ +4"*  ฏۉߪೖֹۚ ߪങස౓ ސ٬ੜଘظؒ
4. എܠ • -57ʢސ٬ੜ֔Ձ஋ʣ͕ߴ͍ • ސ٬ຬ଍౓͕ߴ͍ • ܧଓతʹαʔϏε͕ར༻͞Ε͍ͯΔ • ৽نސ٬֫ಘʹ͸ίετ͕͔͔Δ • -57༧ଌ • ޮՌతͳ༧ࢉ഑෼ʢ޿ࠂɺαʔϏεʣ • ച্ߴͷݟੵ΋Γʢඃܖ໿ܕͷαʔϏεͰ͸ݟੵ΋Γ͕೉͍͠ʣ +4"* 4BLVSBJ
   -BC
   
   %FOUTV
   %JHJUBM
   *OD 
5. ໨త • (JWFO ߪങཤྺσʔλ • $IBMMFOHF -57༧ଌ +4"* 4BLVSBJ
   -BC
   
   %FOUTV
   %JHJUBM
   *OD 
6. ൃද಺༰ • ໨త • ໰୊ఆٛ • ఏҊख๏ • ఏҊΞϧΰϦζϜ • ධՁ࣮ݧ • ·ͱΊ 4BLVSBJ
   -BC
   
   %FOUTV
   %JHJUBM
   *OD +4"* 
7. ໰୊ఆٛ • ߪങཤྺσʔλ +4"* 4BLVSBJ
   -BC
   
   %FOUTV
   %JHJUBM
   *OD  5JNFTUBNQ $VTUPNFS
   *% 1SPEVDU
   *% 2VBOUJUZ 5PUBM
   1SJDF  " 'PPE  =   # #PPL  =   " 4IPFT  =   $ &MFDUSPOJDT  =  ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ
8. ໰୊ఆٛ • -57༧ଌ +4"* 4BLVSBJ
   -BC
   
   %FOUTV
   %JHJUBM
   *OD 
9. ൃද಺༰ • ໨త • ໰୊ఆٛ • ఏҊख๏ • ఏҊΞϧΰϦζϜ • ධՁ࣮ݧ • ·ͱΊ 4BLVSBJ
   -BC
   
   %FOUTV
   %JHJUBM
   *OD +4"* 
10. ఏҊख๏ɿ֓ཁ 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD -57༧ଌ +4"*  ސ٬ಛੑͷ෼ੳ ߪങಛੑͷ෼ੳ ߪങཤྺ (JWFO )JEEFO
11. ఏҊख๏ • ސ٬ͷજࡏతͳߪങಛੑͷݕग़ • ΞΠσΞ̍ɿςϯιϧղੳ • ސ٬ಛੑʹجͮ͘-57༧ଌ • ΞΠσΞ̎ɿ3'.෼ੳ 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD +4"* 
12. ސ٬ಛੑͷݕग़ • (JWFO ߪങཤྺσʔλ • 'JOE ސ٬ಛੑ ∈ ℝ!×# +4"* 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD 
13. ΞΠσΞɿςϯιϧղੳ • ߪങཤྺ ˠ
    ֊ςϯιϧ 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD +4"*  5JNFTUBNQ $VTUPNFS
    *% 1SPEVDU
    *% 2VBOUJUZ 5PUBM
    1SJDF  " 'PPE  =   # #PPL  =   " 4IPFT  =   $ &MFDUSPOJDT  =  ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ $VTUPN FS 1SPEVDU 5JNF 5FOTPS
    ∈ ℤ$ ×× FH
    DVTUPNFS
    "
    CPVHIU
    4IPFT
    PO
    +VOF
    
14. ΞΠσΞɿςϯιϧղੳ • ֊ςϯιϧ ˠ τϐοΫ෼ղ +4"* 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD  $ VTUPN FS 1SPEVDU 5JNF 5FOTPS
    ∈ ℤ$ ×× ≈ + + ⋯ 5PQJD
    " 5PQJD
    # 5PQJD
    $
15. ΞΠσΞɿςϯιϧղੳ • ֊ςϯιϧ ˠ τϐοΫ෼ղ +4"* 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD  $ VTUPN FS 1SPEVDU 5JNF ≈ × (JCCT
    TBNQMJOH 5FOTPS
    ∈ ℤ$ ××
16. ސ٬ಛੑʹجͮ͘-57༧ଌ • (JWFO ސ٬ಛੑ ∈ ℝ!×# • 'JOE -57
    DVTUPNFS
    MJGFUJNF
    WBMVF 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD +4"*  $VTUPNFST 5PQJDT
17. ΞΠσΞ̎ɿ3'.Ϟσϧ • 3'.ࢦඪɿ • 3FDFODZɿ௚ۙͷߪങ͔Βͷܦա೔਺ • 'SFRVFODZɿߪങස౓ • .POFUBSZɿฏۉߪങֹۚ +4"* 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD  #(/#%
    Ϟσϧ ((Ϟσϧ #(/#%
    Ϟσϧ ߪೖճ਺ɿϙΞιϯ෼෍ ࣄલ෼෍ɿΨϯϚ෼෍ , ཭୤֬཰ɿزԿ෼෍ ࣄલ෼෍ɿϕʔλ෼෍ , ℎ ߪങֹۚɿΨϯϚ෼෍ , ࣄલ෼෍ɿΨϯϚ෼෍ , ((Ϟσϧ , , , ℎ, , ,
18. ΞΠσΞ̎ɿ3'.Ϟσϧ • ύϥϝʔλਪఆ = exp (( + ⋯ + ## +4"* 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD  $VTUPNFST 5PQJDT ∈ , , , ℎ, , , 1BSBNFUFST 5PQJDT L: 負の対数尤度
19. ൃද಺༰ • ໨త • ໰୊ఆٛ • ఏҊख๏ • ධՁ࣮ݧ • ·ͱΊ 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD +4"* 
20. ධՁ࣮ݧ • σʔληοτ • ௨ൢαΠτΦϜχ̓ͷߪങཤྺ • ݸਓΞΧ΢ϯτʢ๏ਓʣ • ౦ژ౎ • ߪങཤྺɿ݅ • ސ٬ɿਓ • ධՁํ๏ • 
    d
     • Ϟσϧֶश༻αϯϓϧ • 
    d
     • ςετ-57ࢉग़༻αϯϓϧ 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD +4"*  https://7net.omni7.jp/top
21. ࣮ݧ݁ՌɿτϐοΫ෼ੳ 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD +4"*  5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD 5PQJD
22. ࣮ݧ݁Ռɿ࣌ܥྻύλʔϯ • 5PQJD  ݄ɾ݄̍̎ +4"* 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD 
23. ࣮ݧ݁Ռɿ࣌ܥྻύλʔϯ • 5PQJD
     ฏ೔ɾि຤ +4"* 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD 
24. ࣮ݧ݁Ռɿ-57༧ଌਫ਼౓ • #5:%ɿ 3'.ࢦඪ • $#5:%ɿސ٬ಛੑΛ࢖༻ • ʢ஍Ҭɼ೥୅ɼੑผʣ • 5#5:%ɿఏҊख๏ +4"* 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD  
25. ·ͱΊ • -57༧ଌͷͨΊͷ৽ͨͳϞσϧΛఏҊ • େن໛ߪങϩάσʔλ͔Βಛ௃తͳύλʔϯΛൃݟ • -57༧ଌਫ਼౓Λ໿̔ˋվળ 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD +4"* 
26. Ҿ༻ • IUUQTJDPPPONPOPDPN 4BLVSBJ
    -BC
    
    %FOUTV
    %JHJUBM
    *OD +4"*