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Dr. Timothy M. Waring
Associate Professor of Social-Ecological Systems Modeling
School of Economics, Mitchell Center for Sustainability Solutions
University of Maine
The Evolution of Social-
Ecological Systems
SEANET Speaker Series
November 29, 2017
354 Aubert Hall
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Where are we?
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anthropocene
Waters et al., 2016. The Anthropocene is functionally and
stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene. Science 351.
Crutzen, Paul J. "The “anthropocene”." Earth system science in
the anthropocene. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2006. 13-18.
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anthropocene
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anthropocene
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anthropocene
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planetary boundaries
Rockström, Johan, et al. A safe operating space for humanity.
nature 461.7263 (2009): 472-475.
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how did we get here?
Oil Refinery
Richmond
California
United States
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outline
• how we got here (evolutionary history)
• two superpowers (culture & cooperation)
• how social-ecological systems evolve (examples)
• learning to use our superpowers for good
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How did we get here?
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Going global: How humans conquered the world
The New Scientist, 2007
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Going global: How humans conquered the world
The New Scientist, 2007
Mathew, S. and Perreault, C. (2015) Behavioural variation in 172 small-scale
societies indicates that social learning is the main mode of human adaptation,
Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 282 (1810), p. 61.
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Inuit technology
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!kung technology
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industrial technology
Oil Refinery
Richmond
California
United States
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The first superpower
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The first superpower
CULTURE
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Culture
Evolves.
behavior
beliefs
institutions
technology
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Evolution Refresher
variation + selection + inheritance
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Evolution Refresher
variation + selection + inheritance
= adaptation
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Genetic
Evolution
Cultural
Evolution
Variation random mutation guided innovation
Transmission vertical
parent -> offspring
vertical, horizontal,
oblique
Selection environmental forcing
strategic adoption of
adaptive traits
Types of Evolution
Mesoudi, A., Whiten, A. & Laland, K.N., 2004. Perspective: is human cultural evolution Darwinian?
Evidence reviewed from the perspective of the Origin of Species. Evolution, 58(1), pp.1–11.
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Cultural Evolution
Faster Perreault, C. (2012) ‘The Pace of Cultural
Evolution’, PLoS ONE, 7(9), p. e45150.
More Group
Structured
Bell, A. V., Richerson, P. J. and McElreath, R.
(2009) ‘Culture rather than genes provides
greater scope for the evolution of large-scale
human prosociality’, Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences, 106(42), p. 17671.
Cumulative
Dean, L. G. et al. (2014) ‘Human cumulative
culture: a comparative perspective’. Biological
Reviews, 89 (2) 284-301
Cultural Evolution is...
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Reticulate phylogenies
Borgerhoff Mulder, M., Nunn, C. & Towner, M.C., 2006. Cultural macroevolution
and the transmission of traits. Evolutionary Anthropology, 15, pp.52–64.
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The second superpower
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The second superpower
COOPERATION
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Coordination
Collective
Action
Cooperation
Altruism
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Social Dilemma
Prisoner’s Dilemma Player B
Cooperate Defect
Player A
Cooperate 2 , 2 0 , 3
Defect 3 , 0 1 , 1
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Social Dilemma
Prisoner’s Dilemma Player B
Cooperate Defect
Player A
Cooperate 2 , 2 0 , 3
Defect 3 , 0 1 , 1
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Social Dilemma
Prisoner’s Dilemma Player B
Cooperate Defect
Player A
Cooperate 2 , 2 0 , 3
Defect 3 , 0 1 , 1
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Cooperation Evolves
Nowak, M. A. (2006). Five Rules for the Evolution of
Cooperation. Science
• Kin selection
• Reciprocity
• Group selection
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cooperative
selfish
time 1
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cooperative
selfish
time 1
individual selection
time 2
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Individual selection
in a social dilemma
favors selfish individuals
cooperative
selfish
time 1
individual selection
time 2
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cooperative
selfish
time 1
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cooperative
selfish
time 1
group selection
time 2
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Group selection
in a social dilemma favors
groups of cooperative individuals
cooperative
selfish
time 1
group selection
time 2
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160% increase in clutch size
Muir, W., 1996. Group selection for adaptation to
multiple-hen cages: selection program and direct
responses. Journal of Poultry Science 75, 447–
458.
Posted to Flickr by USDAgov at http://flickr.com/photos/41284017@N08/6354331371
Group Selection on Genes
(very rare in nature)
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Social Dilemmas are
Conflicts between Levels of Selection
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Social Dilemmas are
Conflicts between Levels of Selection
multilevel
selection
cooperative non-cooperative (‘selfish’)
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outcomes
depend on the
balance of
selection
Social Dilemmas are
Conflicts between Levels of Selection
multilevel
selection
cooperative non-cooperative (‘selfish’)
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Human cooperation is group-centric
Apicella, Marlowe, Fowler & Christakis, (2012) Nature 481, 497–501.
Group Selection on Genes
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The Battle of Agincourt.
Choi, Bowles, 2007. The coevolution of parochial altruism and
war. Science 318, 636–640.
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• docility, prosociality
• specialization
• language
• cooperative breeding
• technology
• conformity
• reputation
• social marking
• ethnocentrism
• xenophobia
Biological adaptations
to group life
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• docility, prosociality
• specialization
• language
• cooperative breeding
• technology
• conformity
• reputation
• social marking
• ethnocentrism
• xenophobia
Biological adaptations
to group life
}negative factors
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Cooperation
evolves culturally, too.
[thankfully]
Superpowers combined
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Molly Hayden, U.S. Army Garrison Grafenwoehr Public Affairs
Group selection selects
for group-functional
behaviors and institutions
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Cultural Group Selection
1. Proliferation, extinction, success of
groups
2. Imitation between groups
3. Migration between groups
Henrich, J. (2004). Cultural group selection, coevolutionary processes and large-scale
cooperation. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 53(1), 3–35.
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Things that accelerate the
evolution of cooperation
• small group size
• punishment
• reciprocity
• homogeneity
• competition between groups
• learning between groups
• supporting institutions
(via cultural group selection)
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Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the Commons:
The Evolution of Institutions for Collective
Action. Cambridge University Press.
Elinor Ostrom
Courtesy of Indiana University
Institutional
Design Principles
1. Clear social boundaries
2. Fair rules
3. Collective-choice
4. Monitoring
5. Graduated sanctions
6. Conflict resolution
7. Self determination
8. Nested governance
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Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the Commons:
The Evolution of Institutions for Collective
Action. Cambridge University Press.
Elinor Ostrom
Courtesy of Indiana University
Institutional
Design Principles
1. Clear social boundaries
2. Fair rules
3. Collective-choice
4. Monitoring
5. Graduated sanctions
6. Conflict resolution
7. Self determination
8. Nested governance
Evolution
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How
social-ecological systems
evolve.
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Research Questions
1. (theory) When does cultural group selection
accelerate the emergence of behaviors and
institutions of sustainable resource management?
2. (empirics) Can we find evidence in case studies?
3. (application) Can we design interventions for an
applied science?
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Research Questions
1. (theory) When does cultural group selection
accelerate the emergence of behaviors and
institutions of sustainable resource management?
2. (empirics) Can we find evidence in case studies?
3. (application) Can we design interventions for an
applied science?
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Manavanur, Tamil Nadu,
India
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How does environmental cooperation evolve?
individuals
villages
nations
Multi-village Forest
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How does environmental cooperation evolve?
individuals
villages
nations
Multi-village Forest
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How does environmental cooperation evolve?
individuals
villages
nations
Multi-village Forest
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How does environmental cooperation evolve?
individuals
villages
nations
Multi-village Forest Village Irrigation System
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How does environmental cooperation evolve?
individuals
villages
nations
Multi-village Forest Village Irrigation System
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How does environmental cooperation evolve?
individuals
villages
nations
Multi-village Forest Village Irrigation System
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Lobster gangs
learn from each other:
• territorial defense
• harvest limits
• legal strategies
• conservation practices
Jim Acheson
Waring, T., Acheson, J., 2017. Evidence of cultural group selection in
territorial lobstering in Maine. Sustainability Science 1–14.
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rice irrigation in Bali
Brooks, Jeremy, Victoria Reyes-García, and William Burnside. Re-examining balinese
subaks through the lens of cultural multilevel selection. Sustainability Science: 1-13.
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rice irrigation in Bali
Brooks, Jeremy, Victoria Reyes-García, and William Burnside. Re-examining balinese
subaks through the lens of cultural multilevel selection. Sustainability Science: 1-13.
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blueberry industry
Sam Hanes
Producers cooperated:
• voluntary research tax
• inspection system
(But only after
statewide industry crises)
Hanes, S. P. and Waring, T. M. (2017) ‘Cultural evolution and US agricultural institutions:
a historical case study of Maine’s blueberry industry’, Sustainability Science, pp. 1–10.
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Bhutan
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Ethnic diversity within Bhutan
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or
How to
harness cooperation
for sustainability.
Learning to use our
superpowers for good.
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Research Questions
1. (theory) When does cultural group selection
accelerate the emergence of behaviors and
institutions of sustainable resource management?
2. (empirics) Can we find evidence in case studies?
3. (application) Can we design interventions for an
applied science?
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a recipe to grow sustainability
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1. A social dilemma for environmental resources.
a recipe to grow sustainability
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1. A social dilemma for environmental resources.
2. A type of group that can solve the dilemma locally.
a recipe to grow sustainability
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1. A social dilemma for environmental resources.
2. A type of group that can solve the dilemma locally.
3. A population of those groups.
a recipe to grow sustainability
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1. A social dilemma for environmental resources.
2. A type of group that can solve the dilemma locally.
3. A population of those groups.
4. Within groups
a recipe to grow sustainability
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1. A social dilemma for environmental resources.
2. A type of group that can solve the dilemma locally.
3. A population of those groups.
4. Within groups
4.1.High stakes for successful management
a recipe to grow sustainability
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1. A social dilemma for environmental resources.
2. A type of group that can solve the dilemma locally.
3. A population of those groups.
4. Within groups
4.1.High stakes for successful management
4.2.Strong group culture & institutions (Ostrom’s rules)
a recipe to grow sustainability
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1. A social dilemma for environmental resources.
2. A type of group that can solve the dilemma locally.
3. A population of those groups.
4. Within groups
4.1.High stakes for successful management
4.2.Strong group culture & institutions (Ostrom’s rules)
4.3.Reward cooperation, punish exploitation.
a recipe to grow sustainability
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1. A social dilemma for environmental resources.
2. A type of group that can solve the dilemma locally.
3. A population of those groups.
4. Within groups
4.1.High stakes for successful management
4.2.Strong group culture & institutions (Ostrom’s rules)
4.3.Reward cooperation, punish exploitation.
5. Between groups
a recipe to grow sustainability
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1. A social dilemma for environmental resources.
2. A type of group that can solve the dilemma locally.
3. A population of those groups.
4. Within groups
4.1.High stakes for successful management
4.2.Strong group culture & institutions (Ostrom’s rules)
4.3.Reward cooperation, punish exploitation.
5. Between groups
5.1.Peaceful competition to protect & enhance resources
a recipe to grow sustainability
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1. A social dilemma for environmental resources.
2. A type of group that can solve the dilemma locally.
3. A population of those groups.
4. Within groups
4.1.High stakes for successful management
4.2.Strong group culture & institutions (Ostrom’s rules)
4.3.Reward cooperation, punish exploitation.
5. Between groups
5.1.Peaceful competition to protect & enhance resources
5.2.Strategy imitation
a recipe to grow sustainability
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problems
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1. global commons (climate change)
problems
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1. global commons (climate change)
2. ethnocentric “solutions” too easy
problems
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nimbios.org/workinggroups/WG_sustainability
Tim Waring, University of Maine
Karolina Safarzyńska, Warsaw University
Marco Janssen, Arizona State University
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Jeremy Brooks, Ohio State University
Tim Waring, University of Maine
sesync.org/project/ventures/evolution-of-sustainability
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THEORY
Waring et al. (2015) A multilevel evolutionary framework for
sustainability analysis. Ecology and Society, 20 (2): 34
MODEL
Waring, Goff, & Smaldino (2017) The coevolution of
economic institutions and sustainable consumption via
cultural group selection. Ecological Economics, 131 524–532
SPECIAL ISSUE, CASE STUDIES
Sustainability Science, Special Feature: Applying Cultural
Evolution to Sustainability Challenges, ISSN: 1862-4065 (Print)
1862-4057 (Online)
DOWNLOAD:
timwaring.wordpress.com
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THEORY
Waring et al. (2015) A multilevel evolutionary framework for
sustainability analysis. Ecology and Society, 20 (2): 34
MODEL
Waring, Goff, & Smaldino (2017) The coevolution of
economic institutions and sustainable consumption via
cultural group selection. Ecological Economics, 131 524–532
SPECIAL ISSUE, CASE STUDIES
Sustainability Science, Special Feature: Applying Cultural
Evolution to Sustainability Challenges, ISSN: 1862-4065 (Print)
1862-4057 (Online)
With
Examples,
Strategies
!!!
DOWNLOAD:
timwaring.wordpress.com
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Thank You!
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Thank You!
Questions?