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Salary and Employment
Outcomes in the Public Service
Ebrahim-Khalil Hassen
[email protected]
http://zapreneur.com
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Overview
• Historical Snippets – Can Hippos Swim
Elegantly?
• Overall Trends in Employment and Budgets
• Core Lessons For The Future
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Snippets of Two Hippos
Fighting?
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1994 1999 2004 2009 2013
Unilateral
Implementation
and A Strike
Strike
2007
Another
Strike
2010
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1994 1999 2004 2009 2013
Unilateral
Implementation
and A Strike
Strike
2007
Another
Strike
2010
Debates on Right Sizing OSD
Summit
Another
Summit
Charter
Multi-Year Agreements Multi-Year Agreements
(Inflation Linked)
Multi-Year Agreements
(Inflation Linked)
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Budgets and People
20 Years Of Budget And Employment
Data
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% Budget Changes Year on Year
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Compensation Expenditure
Source: Budget Review Various Years
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Personnel as % of Total Spending
1994/
95
1995/
96
1996/
97
1997/
98
1998/
99
1999/
00
2000/
01
2001/
02
2002/
03
2003/
2004
2004/
05
2005/
06
2006/
07
2007/
08
2008/
09
2009/
10
2010/
11
2011/
12
2012/
13
2013/
14
2014/
15
% of total 52.2 48.9 40.8 41.3 38.7 39.2 38.3 36.7 35.3 34.4 33.5 32.2 31.3 31.2 31.3 33.6 34.1 34.1 33.6 33.0 32.7
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Axis Title
Note 1994-1996 Budget Review Estimates Source: Budget Review Various Years
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Total Full-Time Employment
1,269,141
1,182,846
1,138,549
1,100,784
1,065,999
1,041,574 1,030,717 1,039,644 1,037,655 1,043,697 1,035,748
1,150,760
1,195,344
1,241,047
1,267,544 1279334
1315680
1337265 1329820
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Full Time Employment
Source: Stats SA
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% Changes in employment (Year on Year)
-6.8
-3.7 -3.3 -3.2 -2.3 -1.0
0.9
-0.2
0.6
-0.8
11.1
3.9 3.8
2.1 0.9 2.8 1.6
-0.6
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% Change in Employment Year on Year
% Change in Employment
Source: Statistics SA (based on government data)
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But wait, we could have had
more!
Grade Zero Plus Learnerships
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Guesstimates on Jobs Growth Through Introduction of Grade Zero Plus Learnerhsips
2010 to 2013 – (Estimated in 2009)
185000
212750
276575
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Current Rate Labour Intensification Deeper labour intensification
Guesstimates of Total New Jobs in Public Service in 2015
Source: DPSA Discussion Document for Public
Service Summit (2010)
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Core Lessons
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Core Lessons
• Narrative is not purely about adversarial
bargaining, but power shifts between parties.
• Structural change in budget to personnel ratio
is important to maintain – around 30%.
• Big improvements in conditions in
“revaluation of jobs”
• Not a clear and deliberate strategy.
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Future Challenges
• Productivity incentives at “site level” – schools, police
stations, hospitals.
• Possibilities for job creation – Grade Zero
• Human resource planning more linked to service
delivery needs
• Long term strategy for public service. Many issues –
just start somewhere:
– Political-admin interface
– Human resource pipeline
– Role of Internet and Mobile in Service Delivery
• Can Hippos Dance Elegantly? Context needs to change