Salary and Employment Outcomes In The South African Public Service

Public service employment and salaries are hotly contested issues in South Africa. This presentation provides a review of 20 years of data on employment and budgets, and raises questions for the future. Presented at the 3rd Biennial Labour Relations Relations Conference hosted by the Public Service Coordinating Bargaining Council and the Public Service Commission.

Transcript

1. Salary and Employment Outcomes in the Public Service Ebrahim-Khalil Hassen ekhassen@gmail.com http://zapreneur.com
2. Overview • Historical Snippets – Can Hippos Swim Elegantly? • Overall Trends in Employment and Budgets • Core Lessons For The Future
3. Snippets of Two Hippos Fighting?
4. 1994 1999 2004 2009 2013 Unilateral Implementation  and A Strike Strike 2007 Another Strike 2010
5. 1994 1999 2004 2009 2013 Unilateral Implementation  and A Strike Strike 2007 Another Strike 2010 Debates on Right Sizing OSD Summit Another Summit Charter Multi-Year Agreements Multi-Year Agreements (Inflation Linked) Multi-Year Agreements (Inflation Linked)
6. Budgets and People 20 Years Of Budget And Employment Data
7. % Budget Changes Year on Year -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 Compensation Expenditure Source: Budget Review Various Years
8. Personnel as % of Total Spending 1994/ 95 1995/ 96 1996/ 97 1997/ 98 1998/ 99 1999/ 00 2000/ 01 2001/ 02 2002/ 03 2003/ 2004 2004/ 05 2005/ 06 2006/ 07 2007/ 08 2008/ 09 2009/ 10 2010/ 11 2011/ 12 2012/ 13 2013/ 14 2014/ 15 % of total 52.2 48.9 40.8 41.3 38.7 39.2 38.3 36.7 35.3 34.4 33.5 32.2 31.3 31.2 31.3 33.6 34.1 34.1 33.6 33.0 32.7 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 Axis Title Note 1994-1996 Budget Review Estimates Source: Budget Review Various Years
9. Total Full-Time Employment 1,269,141 1,182,846 1,138,549 1,100,784 1,065,999 1,041,574 1,030,717 1,039,644 1,037,655 1,043,697 1,035,748 1,150,760 1,195,344 1,241,047 1,267,544 1279334 1315680 1337265 1329820 - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Full Time Employment Source: Stats SA
10. % Changes in employment (Year on Year) -6.8 -3.7 -3.3 -3.2 -2.3 -1.0 0.9 -0.2 0.6 -0.8 11.1 3.9 3.8 2.1 0.9 2.8 1.6 -0.6 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % Change in Employment Year on Year % Change in Employment Source: Statistics SA (based on government data)
11. But wait, we could have had more! Grade Zero Plus Learnerships
12. Guesstimates on Jobs Growth Through Introduction of Grade Zero Plus Learnerhsips 2010 to 2013 – (Estimated in 2009) 185000 212750 276575 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 Current Rate Labour Intensification Deeper labour intensification Guesstimates of Total New Jobs in Public Service in 2015 Source: DPSA Discussion Document for Public Service Summit (2010)
13. Core Lessons
14. Core Lessons • Narrative is not purely about adversarial bargaining, but power shifts between parties. • Structural change in budget to personnel ratio is important to maintain – around 30%. • Big improvements in conditions in “revaluation of jobs” • Not a clear and deliberate strategy.
15. Future Challenges • Productivity incentives at “site level” – schools, police stations, hospitals. • Possibilities for job creation – Grade Zero • Human resource planning more linked to service delivery needs • Long term strategy for public service. Many issues – just start somewhere: – Political-admin interface – Human resource pipeline – Role of Internet and Mobile in Service Delivery • Can Hippos Dance Elegantly? Context needs to change