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ݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍εΫϥϜ 3FHJPOBM4DSVN(BUIFSJOH5PLZP34(5 CZ*LVP4VZBNB /P&TUJNBUFT4DSVN

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ಃࢁҭஉ*LVP4VZBNB !NBSUJO@MPWFS@TF ݟश͍l"HJMF%FWFMPQFSz Ϟϒϓϩେ޷͖ʂ $ZCFS"HFOU "*5FDI4UVEJP -0%&0

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ࠓ೔͸ ݟੵΓ ͱεΫϥϜͷ࿩Λ͠·͕͢

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ݟੵΓ͕༗ҙٛͰ͋Γɺ༗༻ͳ৔໘͕ ιϑτ΢ΣΞ։ൃʹ͓͍ͯଟ਺͋Δɺͱ͍͏఺ʹಉҙ͠·͢ɻ ͸͡Ίʹ ͜ͷηογϣϯ͸ɺ ʮݟੵΓ͸Ϝμ͔ͩΒ΍ΊΑ͏ʂʯ ͱ͍͏ओுͰ͸͋Γ·ͤΜ ݟੵ͠ͳ͍࿩͔Β ݟੵΓʹ͍ͭͯߟ͑Δ͖͔͚ͬʹͳΕ͹ʂ

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ͳͥ ݟੵΓ Λ΍Ίͨͷ͔

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ݟੵΓͯͨ͠ͱ͖ͷ΅ͨͪ͘ w Ϛωδϟʔ͕λεΫΛΞαΠϯ͢Δ w λεΫΛΞαΠϯ͞Εͨ୲౰͕ʢҰਓͰʣݟੵΓ͢Δ w ୲౰͕ΨϯτνϟʔτʹਐḿΛೖྗ͢Δ w ҰिؒʹҰ౓ɺϚωδϟʔ͕Ϗδωεͱਐḿڞ༗.5( w ೲظ͸ҰԠ͕͋ͬͨɺ͍͍ͩͨ஗ΕΔ ϝϯόʔ͕ࣗ෼ͷԘകͰέπΛ৳͹͢

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ݟੵΓͯͨ͠ͱ͖ͷ΅ͨͪ͘ ΄ͱΜͲͰ͖ͯΔͷͰʂ དྷिʹ͸ʂ ྃղͰ͢ʂ ͓ئ͍͠·͢ʂ ͋Δिͷਐḿձٞʜ

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ݟੵΓͯͨ͠ͱ͖ͷ΅ͨͪ͘ ࣍ͷिͷਐḿձٞʜ ΄ͱΜͲͰ͖ͯΔͷͰʂ དྷिʹ͸ʂ ྃղͰ͢ʂ ͓ئ͍͠·͢ʂ

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ྃղͰ͢ʂ ͓ئ͍͠·͢ʂ ݟੵΓͯͨ͠ͱ͖ͷ΅ͨͪ͘ ࣍ͷ࣍ͷिͷਐḿձٞʜ ݟੵΓ ͳΜ͚ͩͲͳ͊ʜ ग़དྷΔͬͯ ݴͬͨ͡ΌΜʜ Ӭԕͷਐḿ̌̕ˋʂ ΄ͱΜͲͰ͖ͯΔͷͰʂ དྷिʹ͸ʂ

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Կ͔͕͓͔͍͠ ʢ͜ΕݟੵΓ͢Δҙຯͳ͘Ͷʁʣ

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34(5,FZ/PUF CZ$ISJT-VDJBO /P &TUJNBUFT $PTU PG&TUJNBUFT

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΅ͦ͘Εͩ

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ͦͯ͠ݟੵΓΛ΍Ίͨʜ

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w ࣗݾ૊৫Խ͞Εͨ։ൃνʔϜ ʮࠓिͰ͖Δ͜ͱʯʹࣗ৴͕͋Γɺ໿ଋΛकΕΔ w Ϗδωεͱͷؒʹ৴པؔ܎͕Ͱ͖Δ ৴པͰ͖Δܭըͮ͘ΓΛҰॹʹͰ͖Δ ΍Ί͔ͯΒҰ౓΋ݟੵΓΛٻΊΒΕͨ͜ͱ͸ͳ͍ ݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍๻ͨͪ

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ݟੵΓͷෛͷଆ໘ͱՁ஋ εΫϥϜͱݟੵΓ ๻ͨͪͷʮݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍εΫϥϜʯ ݱ࣮ͱʮݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍։ൃʯ/P&TUJNBUFT "HFOEB 34(5͔ΒҰ೥෼ͷۤ೰ͱ࣮ફ

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ݟੵΓͷෛͷଆ໘ͱՁ஋ εΫϥϜͱݟੵΓ ๻ͨͪͷʮݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍εΫϥϜʯ ݱ࣮ͱʮݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍։ൃʯ/P&TUJNBUFT

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ݟੵΓͷෛͷଆ໘

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ྃղͰ͢ʂ ͓ئ͍͠·͢ʂ ݟੵΓ ͳΜ͚ͩͲͳ͊ʜ ग़དྷΔͬͯ ݴͬͨ͡ΌΜʜ Ӭԕͷਐḿ̌̕ˋʂ ΄ͱΜͲͰ͖ͯΔͷͰʂ དྷिʹ͸ʂ ͳͥ͜Ε͕ى͜Δͷ͔ʁ

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5IF)JEEFO$PTUPG&TUJNBUFTCZ$ISJT-VDJBO $03$0%%5&$51-ɹ w $PTUPGUIF3VMFͷ๏ଇͷίετ ػೳͷ̔̌ˋ͸ίΞϢʔβʔʹͱͬͯ༗༻Ͱ͸ͳ͍ w $PTUPG%FMBZ஗Ԇίετ ඞཁͳػೳ͕σϦόϦ͞Ε͍ͯͳ͍ظؒʹൃੜ͢Δଛࣦ w %FTJHO5SBEFP⒎TઃܭτϨʔυΦϑ ඼࣭Λ٘ਜ਼ʹͯ͠ɺࢢ৔౤ೖͷ࣌ظΛૣΊͨ৔߹ͷ௕ظίετ w &TUJNBUJPO$SFBUJPO5JNFݟੵΓ࡞੒࣌ؒ ݟੵΓͷͨΊʹඅ΍ͨ࣌ؒ͠ w 5IF$PTUPG1BSLJOTPOT-BXύʔΩϯιϯͷ๏ଇͷίετ ظݶ͍ͬͺ͍·Ͱ࢓ࣄΛ๲ுͤͯ͞͠·͏ ༏ઌॱҐ෇͚ ʢՁ஋ݟੵΓʣͷ໰୊ ਺஋Խ ͕Ҿ͖ى͜͢໰୊

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ઃܭτϨʔυΦϑʜ਺஋ԽʹΑΔίϛοτѹྗ ύʔΩϯιϯͷ๏ଇʜ਺஋ԽʹΑΔ࢓ࣄྔͷ࠷େԽ ݟੵ΋Γ࣌ؒʜ਺஋ԽʹΑΔਖ਼֬Ͱ͋Δͱ͍͏ࡨ֮ ਺஋Խ͢Δ͜ͱʹΑΔ໰୊

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਺஋ԽʹΑΔ໰୊ ݟੵ΋Γ/ 4UPSZ1PJOUPS%BZ ΛܾΊͨͱ͖ʜ / ࣮ࡍ΍ͬͯΈΔͱ ඞͣ͜Μͳײ͡Ͱ͹Βͭ͘ ʮਖ਼֬͞ʯ͸࣌ؒΛ͔͚ͯ΋্͕Βͳ͍ ਫ਼౓ͷϜϥ ʮೲظʯͱͯ͠ଊ͑ΒΕ ͭΑ͍ίϛοτѹྗ͕͔͔Δ ݟੵΓBTBίϛοτϝϯτ ೲظͷϜϦ ظ೔·Ͱ ࢓ࣄΛ࠷େԽͯ͠͠·͏ ύʔΩϯιϯͷ๏ଇ ࢓ࣄͷϜμ ϜϦɾϜμɾϜϥ͕ੜ·ΕΔʂ

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ݟੵΓͷՁ஋

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ݟੵΓͱͱ΋ʹɺ ҙࢥܾఆͷͨΊͷʮܭըͮ͘Γʯ͕ඞཁ ݟੵΓͱܭըͮ͘Γ͸ɺظ೔΍εέδϡʔϧΛ ܾఆ͢ΔͨΊ͚ͩͷ΋ͷͰ͸ͳ͍ɻ ܭըͮ͘Γͱ͸Ձ஋ͷ୳ٻͳͷͩɻ ྑ͍ܭըͱ͸ɺεςʔΫϗϧμʔ͕৴པͰ͖Δܭըͩɻ ৴པͰ͖Δͱ͸ɺͦͷܭըΛ΋ͱʹͯ͠ ҙࢥܾఆͰ͖Δͱ͍͏ҙຯͰ͋Δɻ ͳͥݟੵΓ͕ඞཁͳͷ͔ʁ —ΞδϟΠϧͳݟੵΓͱܭըͮ͘Γ

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ݟੵΓ͔Βܭը΁ͷม׵ ͜ͷม׵࡞ۀΛܧଓతʹߦ͏ͷ͕ʮܭըͮ͘Γʯ ཁٻ͞ΕΔ ϑΟʔνϟ ن໛ͷ ݟੵΓ ظؒ΁ͷ ม׵ ܭը ʮΞδϟΠϧͳݟੵΓͱܭըͮ͘ΓʯΑΓҾ༻ w ૬ରݟੵΓ wετʔϦʔϙΠϯτ౳ w ཧ૝೔ݟੵΓ w ϕϩγςΟ͔ΒظؒΛࢉग़

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গ͠ղ૾౓Λ্͛Δͱ ཁٻ͞ΕΔ ϑΟʔνϟ ن໛ͷ ݟੵΓ ظؒ΁ͷ ม׵ ܭը αΠζ ظؒ Ձ஋ͷ ݟੵΓ Ձ஋ ༏ઌॱҐ ͚ͮ H Y ༏ઌॱҐ G Y ίετ ৘ใ w ϦεΫ w ઐ໳Ոͷ৘ใʢσϧϑΝΠ๏ʣ w ૬ରݟੵΓ 41 w ཧ૝೔ݟੵΓ w ࡞Δͷʹ͍͘Β͔͔Δʁ w ࡞ΔͱͲΕ͘Β͍Ṷ͔Δʁ w ࡞Δॱ൪

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গ͠ղ૾౓Λ্͛Δͱ ཁٻ͞ΕΔ ϑΟʔνϟ ن໛ͷ ݟੵΓ ظؒ΁ͷ ม׵ ܭը αΠζ ظؒ Ձ஋ͷ ݟੵΓ Ձ஋ ༏ઌॱҐ ͚ͮ H Y ༏ઌॱҐ G Y ίετ ৘ใ w ϦεΫ w ઐ໳Ոͷ৘ใʢσϧϑΝΠ๏ʣ w ૬ରݟੵΓ 41 w ཧ૝೔ݟੵΓ ຊηογϣϯʹ͓͚Δ ʮݟੵΓʯ ਺஋Խʹ̏.ͷࠜݯ w ࡞Δͷʹ͍͘Β͔͔Δʁ w ࡞ΔͱͲΕ͘Β͍Ṷ͔Δʁ w ࡞Δॱ൪

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গ͠ղ૾౓Λ্͛Δͱ ཁٻ͞ΕΔ ϑΟʔνϟ ن໛ͷ ݟੵΓ ظؒ΁ͷ ม׵ ܭը αΠζ ظؒ Ձ஋ͷ ݟੵΓ Ձ஋ ༏ઌॱҐ ͚ͮ H Y ༏ઌॱҐ G Y ίετ ৘ใ w ϦεΫ w ઐ໳Ոͷ৘ใʢσϧϑΝΠ๏ʣ w ૬ରݟੵΓ 41 w ཧ૝೔ݟੵΓ ຊηογϣϯʹ͓͚Δ ʮݟੵΓʯ ਺஋Խʹ̏.ͷࠜݯ w ࡞Δͷʹ͍͘Β͔͔Δʁ w ࡞ΔͱͲΕ͘Β͍Ṷ͔Δʁ w ࡞Δॱ൪ ຊηογϣϯʹ͓͚ΔʮݟੵΓʯͷఆٛ ϑΟʔνϟΛʮن໛ʯʹม׵͢Δ࡞ۀ ٴͼ࡞ۀͷ݁Ռͱͯ͠ಘΒΕͨ਺ࣈ

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ཁٻ͞ΕΔ ϑΟʔνϟ ن໛ͷ ݟੵΓ ظؒ΁ͷ ม׵ ܭը αΠζ ظؒ Ձ஋ͷ ݟੵΓ Ձ஋ ༏ઌॱҐ ͚ͮ H Y ༏ઌॱҐ G Y ίετ ৘ใ w ϦεΫ w ઐ໳Ոͷ৘ใʢσϧϑΝΠ๏ʣ w ૬ରݟੵΓ 41 w ཧ૝೔ݟੵΓ w ࡞Δͷʹ͍͘Β͔͔Δʁ w ࡞ΔͱͲΕ͘Β͍Ṷ͔Δʁ w ࡞Δॱ൪ ͕ͬͪ͜ඞཁʂ ਺஋Խʹ̏.ͷࠜݯ ͜ΕͰ͸ͳ͘ ඞཁͳͷ͸ʜ

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ཁٻ͞ΕΔ ϑΟʔνϟ ن໛ͷ ݟੵΓ ظؒ΁ͷ ม׵ ܭը αΠζ ظؒ Ձ஋ͷ ݟੵΓ Ձ஋ ༏ઌॱҐ ͚ͮ H Y ༏ઌॱҐ G Y ίετ ৘ใ w ϦεΫ w ઐ໳Ոͷ৘ใʢσϧϑΝΠ๏ʣ w ૬ରݟੵΓ 41 w ཧ૝೔ݟੵΓ w ࡞Δॱ൪ ͕ͬͪ͜ඞཁʂ ਺஋Խʹ̏.ͷࠜݯ ඞཁͳͷ͸ʜ ʴҙࢥܾఆʹ Ձ஋ɺίετɺ৘ใ ͕ඞཁʂ w ࡞Δͷʹ͍͘Β͔͔Δʁ w ࡞ΔͱͲΕ͘Β͍Ṷ͔Δʁ ͜ΕͰ͸ͳ͘

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ཁٻ͞ΕΔ ϑΟʔνϟ ن໛ͷ ݟੵΓ ظؒ΁ͷ ม׵ ܭը αΠζ ظؒ Ձ஋ͷ ݟੵΓ ༏ઌॱҐ ͚ͮ H Y ༏ઌॱҐ G Y w ϦεΫ w ઐ໳Ոͷ৘ใʢσϧϑΝΠ๏ʣ w ૬ରݟੵΓ 41 w ཧ૝೔ݟੵΓ w ࡞Δͷʹ͍͘Β͔͔Δʁ w ࡞ΔͱͲΕ͘Β͍Ṷ͔Δʁ w ࡞Δॱ൪ ਺஋Խʹ̏.ͷࠜݯ Ձ஋ ίετ ৘ใ ͜ΕΛ΍Ίͯ ͜ΕΛऔΓग़͢ʂ ๻ͨͪͷ/P&TUJNBUFT

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ཁٻ͞ΕΔ ϑΟʔνϟ ن໛ͷ ݟੵΓ ظؒ΁ͷ ม׵ ܭը αΠζ ظؒ Ձ஋ͷ ݟੵΓ ༏ઌॱҐ ͚ͮ H Y ༏ઌॱҐ G Y w ϦεΫ w ઐ໳Ոͷ৘ใʢσϧϑΝΠ๏ʣ w ૬ରݟੵΓ 41 w ཧ૝೔ݟੵΓ w ࡞Δͷʹ͍͘Β͔͔Δʁ w ࡞ΔͱͲΕ͘Β͍Ṷ͔Δʁ w ࡞Δॱ൪ ਺஋Խʹ̏.ͷࠜݯ Ձ஋ ίετ ৘ใ ͜ΕΛ΍Ίͯ ͜ΕΛऔΓग़͢ʂ ๻ͨͪͷ/P&TUJNBUFT ཁٻ͞ΕΔػೳΛ αΠζظؒͷ਺ࣈʹม׵ͤͣɺ ҙࢥܾఆʹඞཁͳ ίετɺ৘ใɺՁ஋ ΛऔΓग़͢͜ͱ

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ݟੵΓͷෛͷଆ໘ʹ. ϜϦɾϜμɾϜϥ Λճආ·ͨ͸࠷খԽͭͭ͠ɺ ݟੵΓͷՁ஋ʹҙࢥܾఆʹඞཁͳܭըͮ͘Γ Λߦ͓͏ͱ͢ΔࢼΈ ʮݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍ʯ͜ͱ͕໨త͡Όͳ͍

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It is significant to me that much of why we do estimates is that we need to make decisions: To decide something. In other words, it looks to me that what we need are decisions , not estimates. ݟੵΓΛߦ͏ཧ༝ͷେ෦෼͸ɺ ͳʹ͔ܾఆΛԼ͢ඞཁ͕͋Δͱ͍͏͜ͱͩɻ ݴ͍׵͑Δͱɺ ඞཁͳ΋ͷ͸ݟੵΓͰ͸ͳ͘ɺҙࢥܾఆͰ͋Δ Α͏ʹࢥΘΕΔɻ Š8PPEZ;VJMM8IZEPXFOFFEFTUJNBUFT

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ݟੵΓͷෛͷଆ໘ͱՁ஋ εΫϥϜͱݟੵΓ ๻ͨͪͷʮݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍εΫϥϜʯ ݱ࣮ͱʮݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍։ൃʯ/P&TUJNBUFT

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2εΫϥϜΨΠυʹʮݟੵΓʯͱ͍͏୯ޠ͸ Կճग़ͯ͘ΔͰ͠ΐ͏ʁ

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"̕ճʂ

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㾎 ϓϩμΫτόοΫϩάΞΠςϜʹ͸ɺৄࡉɾฒͼॱɾݟੵΓɾՁ஋ͷଐੑ͕͋Δɻ 㾎 ϓϩμΫτόοΫϩάʹؚ·ΕΔΞΠςϜʹରͯ͠ɺৄࡉͷ௥ՃɺݟੵΓɺฒͼସ͑Λ͢Δ͜ͱΛɺϓ ϩμΫτόοΫϩάͷϦϑΝΠϯϝϯτͱݺͿɻ εΫϥϜͷ࡞੒෺ϓϩμΫτόοΫϩά 1#*ͷଐੑʹʮݟੵΓʯ͕ଘࡏ͢Δ ݟੵΓ͔Β औΓग़͍ͨ͠΋ͷ 㾎ະ׬੒ͷϓϩμΫτόοΫϩάΞΠςϜ͸ɺ࠶ݟੵΓΛ͔ͯ͠ΒϓϩμΫτόοΫϩάʹ໭͢ɻͦ͜ʹ ͔͔ͬͨ࡞ۀͷՁ஋͸ٸ଎ʹ௿Լ͢ΔͨΊɺසൟʹ࠶ݟੵΓ͕ඞཁʹͳΔɻʢ༁஫ɿ࡞Γ͔͚ͷػೳ΍ ઃܭʹ͍ͭͯ͸ɺ͕࣌ؒܦͭͱঢ়گ͕มΘͬͯ͠·͏ͨΊɺͦͷՁ஋͕ࣦΘΕͯ͠·͏͜ͱ͕ଟ͍ɻͦ͏ ͢Δͱɺ࠷ॳ͔ΒݟੵΓΛ΍Γ௚͢ඞཁ͕ग़ͯ͘Δʣ εΫϥϜΠϕϯτεϓϦϯτͷதࢭ 1#*ͷݟੵΓ͸සൟʹߋ৽͠ɺৗʹ࠷৽ͷঢ়ଶʹ͢Δ ͳͥͳΒɺ༏ઌॱҐ෇͚ͷͨΊ

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㾎εϓϦϯτϓϥϯχϯάͷΠϯϓοτ͸ɺϓϩμΫτόοΫϩάɺ࠷৽ͷϓϩμΫτΠϯΫϦϝϯτɺ ։ൃνʔϜ͕༧૝͢ΔΩϟύγςΟͱաڈͷ࣮੷Ͱ͋ΔɻϓϩμΫτόοΫϩά͔Βબ୒͢ΔΞΠςϜ਺ ʹ͍ͭͯ͸ɺ։ൃνʔϜ͕੹೚Λ࣋ͭɻ εΫϥϜΠϕϯτεϓϦϯτϓϥϯχϯάτϐοΫ̍ աڈͷ࣮੷͔ΒΩϟύγςΟΛ൑அ͢Δ ࣮ߦ੹೚Λෛ͏ਓ͕ݟੵΓΛ࣮ࢪ͠ɺ ݟੵΓʹίϛοτ͢Δ 㾎 ฒͼॱ্͕ͷϓϩμΫτόοΫϩάΞΠςϜ΄Ͳ໌֬ͰৄࡉͰ͋Δɻ໌֬ͰৄࡉͰ͋Ε͹ɺݟੵΓ΋ਖ਼ ֬ʹͳΔɻ 㾎 ։ൃνʔϜ͸ݟੵΓʹରͯ͠ ࣮ߦ ੹೚Λ࣋ͭSFTQPOTJCMFGPSɻϓϩμΫτΦʔφʔ͕τϨʔυΦϑ ͷཧղ΍બ୒ͳͲʹ͍ͭͯ։ൃνʔϜʹӨڹΛٴ΅͢͜ͱ΋͋Δ͕ɺ࠷ऴతͳݟੵΓ͸࣮ࡍʹ࡞ۀ͢Δ ਓ͕ߦ͏ɻ ͦΕ͸ͦ͏ εΫϥϜͷ࡞੒෺ϓϩμΫτόοΫϩά

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㾎৽͍͠࡞ۀ͕ඞཁʹͳΕ͹ɺ։ൃνʔϜ͕εϓϦϯτόοΫϩάʹ࡞ۀΛ௥Ճ͢Δɻ࡞ۀ͕׬ྃ͢Ε ͹ɺ࢒࡞ۀͷݟੵΓΛߋ৽͢Δɻ 㾎εϓϦϯτͷ͍ͣΕ͔ͷ࣌఺ͰɺεϓϦϯτόοΫϩάͷ࢒࡞ۀΛ߹ܭ͢Δɻ ͳͥͳΒɺਐḿΛ௥੻͢ΔͨΊ εΫϥϜͷ࡞੒෺εϓϦϯτόοΫϩά εΫϥϜͷ࡞੒෺εϓϦϯτόοΫϩάεϓϦϯτͷਐḿΛ௥੻͢Δ 㾎։ൃνʔϜ͸ɺϓϩμΫτόοΫϩάΛಈ࡞͢ΔϓϩμΫτΠϯΫϦϝϯτʹม͑ΔͨΊʹඞཁͳγες Ϝͱ࡞ۀͷઃܭ͔Βணख͢Δɻ࡞ۀͷن໛΍޻਺ FTUJNBUFEF⒎PSU ͸όϥόϥͰ͋ͬͯ΋ߏΘͳ͍ εΫϥϜΠϕϯτεϓϦϯτϓϥϯχϯά 4#*ʹ΋ʮݟੵΓʯ͕ඞཁ

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w ϦϦʔεܭըͮ͘ΓͷͨΊʜ༏ઌॱҐ͚ͮ 㾎 ʮϓϩμΫτόοΫϩάΞΠςϜʹ͸ɺৄࡉɾฒͼॱɾݟੵΓɾՁ஋ͷଐੑ͕͋Δɻʯ 㾎 ʮϓϩμΫτόοΫϩάʹؚ·ΕΔΞΠςϜʹରͯ͠ɺৄࡉͷ௥ՃɺݟੵΓɺฒͼସ͑Λ͢Δʯ w εϓϦϯτܭըͮ͘ΓͷͨΊʜΩϟύγςΟ ίϛοτϝϯτ 㾎 ʮϓϩμΫτόοΫϩά͔Βબ୒͢ΔΞΠςϜ਺ʹ͍ͭͯ͸ɺ։ൃνʔϜ͕੹೚Λ࣋ͭɻʯ 㾎 ʮ։ൃνʔϜ͸ݟੵΓʹରͯ͠੹೚Λ࣋ͭɻʯ w ਐḿ؅ཧͷͨΊʜਐḿ؅ཧ 㾎ʮεϓϦϯτͷ͍ͣΕ͔ͷ࣌఺ͰɺεϓϦϯτόοΫϩάͷ࢒࡞ۀΛ߹ܭ͢Δɻʯ ·ͱΊɿεΫϥϜʹ͓͚ΔݟੵΓ ʮ਺஋ԽͤΑʯͱ͸ॻ͍ͯͳ͍ʂ

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ݟੵΓͷෛͷଆ໘ͱՁ஋ εΫϥϜͱݟੵΓ ๻ͨͪͷʮݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍εΫϥϜʯ ݱ࣮ͱʮݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍։ൃʯ/P&TUJNBUFT

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๻ͨͪͷʮݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍εΫϥϜʯ

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εΫϥϜΨΠυ͔Βநग़ͨ͠ݟੵΓͷՁ஋ ݟੵΓͷ୅ସ ίΞϓϥΫςΟε

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όοΫϩάϦϑΝΠϯϝϯτ ༏ઌॱҐ͚ͮ

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#BDLMPH 3FBEZ 5PEP %PJOH %POF 'FBUVSF" 1#*ɹ̍XFFL 1#* 1#* ɿ 1#*" 1#*# ̍1#*Λ෼ׂ͢Δ w αΠζΛ̍εϓϦϯτ X Ҏ಺ʹ w %FpOJUJPOPG3FBEZ 1#*ɹ̍XFFL 1#* 1#* 'FBUVSF# 1#* 1#*̐ όοΫϩάϦϑΝΠϯϝϯτ ɿ

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#BDLMPH 3FBEZ 5PEP %PJOH %POF 'FBUVSF" 1#* 1#* ɿ 1#*ສX 1#*#ສX ̎ɽ$%ͷ߱ॱͰιʔτ w $PTUPG%FMBZΛݟੵΔ Ձ஋ݟੵΓ w ظؒ͸͢΂ͯ̍िؒͱͯ͠ѻ͏ ͜ΕҎԼͷޡࠩ͸ແࢹ͢Δ 1#* 1#* 'FBUVSF# 1#*"ສX 1#*̐ສX όοΫϩάϦϑΝΠϯϝϯτ ɿ

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͜ͷ߱ॱ͕ɺ͋ΔظؒͰଛࣦΛ࠷খԽ͢ΔʢརӹΛ࠷େԽ͢Δʣ࠷దղ ༏ઌॱҐ $%$PTUPG%FMBZ%JWJEFECZ%VSBUJPO $PTUPG%FMBZ %VSBUJPO ʮ͜ͷػೳͷσϦόϦ͕஗ΕΔͱɺ୯Ґظؒ͋ͨΓͲΕ͚ͩͷଛࣦ͕͋Δ͔ʁʯ ʹՁ஋ݟੵΓ ͦͷػೳͷσϦόϦʹඞཁͳظؒ ʹݟੵΓ ৄ͘͠͸ʮ-&"/&/5&313*4&ʯQࢀর

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w 1#*ͷαΠζΛ̍εϓϦϯτʢ̍8FFLʣҎ಺ʹίϯτϩʔϧ͢Δ w %FpOJUJPOPG3FBEZɻ௚ۙ̎ʙ̏εϓϦϯτҎ಺ʹ౤ೖ͢ΔՄೳੑͷ͋Δ1#*શͯʹద༻ w ʮαΠζ͕̍εϓϦϯτҎԼͰ͋Δʯ͜ͱʹ։ൃνʔϜ10Ͱ߹ҙ͢Δ w ֶͼ͕ಘΒΕΔఔ౓ʹখ͗ͣ͢͞ɺؒҧ͍ͬͯͯ΋μϝʔδ͕ઙ͍Α͏େ͖͗͢ͳ͍αΠζ w εϓϦϯτʹ౤ೖ͢Δ1#*͸͢΂ͯظؒ8FFLʢ࠷খ୯Ґʣͱͯ͠ѻ͏ w ̍εϓϦϯτ෼ɻ͜ΕҎԼͷޡࠩΛແࢹ͢Δ w 1#*ؒʹґଘ͕Ͱ͖Δ͜ͱΛڐ༰͠ɺαΠζΛԼ͛Δ͜ͱΛ༏ઌ͢Δ w ͨͩ͠୯ମͰֶͼ͕ಘΒΕΔΑ͏όʔςΟΧϧʢػೳ͝ͱʣεϥΠε͸ࢮक w FH৽ػೳΛ࣮૷͢Δલʹɺಛఆͷۀछ޲͚ͷσϞ w ͜Ε͕೉͍͠ αΠζΛίϯτϩʔϧ͢Δ͜ͱͰɺݟੵΓʹ਺ࣈ΁ͷม׵ΛߦΘͣظؒΛऔΓग़͢ %VSBUJPO1#*ͷαΠδϯάʢ෼ׂʣݟੵΓͷ୅ସ

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Ձ஋ʮݟੵΓʯ͸΍ͬͯ·͢ ͜Ε͸ආ͚ΒΕͳ͍ʜ $PTUPG%FMBZՁ஋ݟੵΓ

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w ͜ͷػೳ͸௚ۙͷ࢛൒ظͰ999ສചΔʢ༧ఆʣ 8FFL஗Ԇ͢Δͱ999 8FFL.POUI ສͷଛࣦ w ͜ͷػೳ͸Ӧۀͷ࣌ؒΛO)PVS%BZઅ໿͢Δ ͦͷ࣌ؒΛӦۀ׆ಈʹ౰ͯΔͱ:::ສ8FFLͷചΓ্͕͛ݟࠐ·ΕΔ 8஗Ԇ͢Δͱ:::ສͷଛࣦ ʮ͜ͷػೳͷσϦόϦ͕஗ΕΔͱɺ ୯ҐظؒʹͲΕ͚ͩͷଛࣦ͕͋Δ͔ʁʯ σϦόϦ͔ͯ͠Β௚ۙͷՁ஋Λߟ͑Ε͹ྑ͍ $PTUPG%FMBZՁ஋ݟੵΓ

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εϓϦϯτϓϥϯχϯά ΩϟύγςΟ ίϛοτϝϯτ

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#BDLMPH 3FBEZ 5PEP %PJOH %POF 'FBUVSF" 1#* 1#* ɿ 1#*ສX 1#*#ສX 1#* 1#* 'FBUVSF# 1#*"ສX 1#*̐ສX εϓϦϯτϓϥϯχϯάʢୈҰ෦ʣ ɿ 1#*̑ສX ɿ ̏ɽաڈ࣮੷ͷ਺Λ΋ͱʹ1#*બ୒ w աڈʹ͜ͳͤͨ਺ͷฏۉΛΩϟύγςΟ w εϓϦϯτΰʔϧʹίϛοτ ʮࠓि͸"͕Ͱ͖ΔΑ͏ʹ͢Δʯ 1#*ສX 1#*#ສX 1#*"ສX 1#*̐ສX 4QSJOU(PBM

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εϓϦϯτϓϥϯχϯάʢୈҰ෦ʣΩϟύγςΟ 1#*ͷεϧʔϓοτ w ΩϟύγςΟ͸ɺ͜Ε·ͰͷεϓϦϯτͷεϧʔϓοτ͔Β൑அ͢Δ 1#*Λ͜ͳͤͨ਺ ͍͍ͩͨd w ։ൃνʔϜ͕εϓϦϯτʹ౤ೖՄೳ͔൑அ͢Δ w 1#*͝ͱͷ೉қ౓ͱɺ࣮ݱ͍ͨ͜͠ͱΛ10ͱ֬ೝ

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w 1#*Ͱ͸ͳ͘ɺεϓϦϯτΰʔϧʹίϛοτ͢Δ ྫɿʮࠓि͸999ϑΥʔϚοτͰ഑৴͕Ͱ͖ΔΑ͏ʹ͢Δʯ w 1#*ͷ਺͸ฏۉνϟϨϯδϯάʹબ୒͢Δ w ໨ඪΛߴ࣋ͭ͘ w ͨͩ͠ɺશ࣮ͯߦ͢Δ͜ͱʹͩ͜ΘΒͳ͍ w ʢεϧʔϓοτ͕ਖ਼ن෼෍ʹै͏ͱԾఆͰ͖Δ৔߹ʣεϧʔϓοτͷฏۉΛϕϩγςΟʹ ࢖͏ͱɺͷ֬཰ͰͦΕΛԼճΔ εϓϦϯτϓϥϯχϯάʢୈҰ෦ʣίϛοτϝϯτ εϓϦϯτΰʔϧ

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#BDLMPH 3FBEZ 5PEP %PJOH %POF 'FBUVSF" 1#* 1#* ɿ 1#* 1#* 'FBUVSF# εϓϦϯτϓϥϯχϯάʢୈೋ෦ʣ ɿ 1#*̑ສX ɿ 1#*ສX 1#*#ສX 1#*"ສX 1#*̐ສX 5BTL#PBSE 4#* 4#* 4#* 4#* 4#* 4#* 4#* 4#* ̐ɽλεΫͷચ͍ग़͠ w 1#*ͱಉ༷ɺݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍ w Ұ೔ҎԼͷαΠζʹ෼ׂ͠ɺޡࠩ͸ແࢹ w ͓͓·͔ʹਐΊํʹಉҙ͠ɺ͋ͱ͸Ϟϒϓϩ 4#*

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w ։ൃνʔϜ͕બ୒ͨ͠1#*ͷλεΫચ͍ग़͠Λߦ͏ w 1#*ͱಉ༷ɺ4#*ͷݟੵΓΛߦΘͣɺαΠδϯάͰίϯτϩʔϧ͢Δ w λεΫͷେ͖͞͸Ұ೔ΑΓখ͍͞ɺʹ։ൃνʔϜ͕߹ҙ͍ͯ͠Δ w Ұ೔ҎԼͷޡࠩ͸ແࢹ͢Δ w ڍ͛ΒΕͨλεΫͰɺਐΊํɺํ਑ͷେ·͔ͳ߹ҙΛऔΔ w ͋ͱ͸ϞϒϓϩͰ࣮ࡍʹ࡞Γͳ͕ΒҙݟΛूΊΔ w σϧϑΝΠ๏͕ৗʹߦΘΕ͓ͯΓɺϓϥϯχϯάϙʔΧʔʹΑΔ৘ใͷநग़͕ෆཁ εϓϦϯτϓϥϯχϯάʢୈೋ෦ʣΩϟύγςΟ ΩϟύγςΟͷܭࢉ4#*ͷεϧʔϓοτ αΠδϯάʜݟੵΓͷ୅ସ̎

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σΠϦʔεΫϥϜ ਐḿ؅ཧ

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#BDLMPH 3FBEZ 5PEP %PJOH %POF 'FBUVSF" 1#* 1#* ɿ 1#* 1#* 'FBUVSF# σΠϦʔεΫϥϜ ɿ 1#*̑ສX ɿ 1#* 1#*# 1#*" 1#*̐ 5BTL#PBSE 4#* 4#* 4#* 4#* 4#* 4#* 4#* 4#* 4#* ̑ɽਐḿ֬ೝ w λεΫͷ࢒਺ͱεϓϦϯτͷ࢒೔਺Ͱ֬ೝ w ʮ͋ͱ/೔Ͱ.ݸऴΘΒͤΒΕΔ֬཰͸Կˋʁʯ

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w ਐḿͷ֬ೝ͸λεΫͷ࢒਺Ͱߦ͏ εϓϦϯτͷ࢒೔਺͔ΒɺऴΘΕͦ͏͔ʁΛ൑அ͢Δ w ඞཁʹԠͯ͡λεΫͷ෼ׂ ௥Ճ ࡟আΛߦ͏ εΫϥϜΨΠυʹ͋Δ λεΫ׬ྃ࣌ͷ࠶ݟੵΓͷ୅ΘΓ ਐḿ؅ཧ 4#*ͷεϧʔϓοτ

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ϞϯςΧϧϩ๏ ϞϯςΧϧϩ΄͏ɺӳ.POUF$BSMPNFUIPE .$ ͱ͸ γϛϡϨʔγϣϯ΍਺஋ܭࢉΛཚ਺Λ༻͍ͯߦ͏ख๏ͷ૯শɻ &YQFSJNFOUBMϞϯςΧϧϩ๏ ͜Ε·Ͱͷ܏޲͔Βɺ͜ͷઌͲ͏͍͏͜ͱ͕ى͜Γͦ͏͔ʁ ΛγϛϡϨʔγϣϯ͢Δ΍ͭ ʮਪଌ͢ΔͳɺܭଌͤΑʯ ŠϞϯςΧϧϩ๏8JLJQFEJB

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νʔϜͰ࢖͍ͬͯΔʮ,BOCBOJ[Fʯͷػೳɻ εϓϦϯτͷ࢒೔਺ͰɺԿˋͷ֬཰ͰԿݸऴΘΒͤΒΕͦ͏͔ʁΛڭ͑ͯ͘ΕΔɻ ͜ͷ෼෍ͷඪ४ภ͕ࠩখ͍͞΄Ͳخ͍͠ʢΑΓܭը͕৴པͰ͖Δʣ / &YQFSJNFOUBMϞϯςΧϧϩ๏

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1#*4#*ͷεϧʔϓοτΛ৴པ͢Δʹ͸ ʮࣗ෼ͨͪ͸͜Ε͘Β͍ͷ଎͞Ͱ͢͢ΊΔʯͱ͍͏ࣗ৴ɺ ༐ؾ͕ඞཁ

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༐ؾΛࢧ͑ΔίΞϓϩηε Ϟϒϓϩάϥϛϯά

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εϓϦϯτʢ։ൃ࡞ۀʣ ༧ଌՄೳੑ

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ಉ͜͡ͱΛ ಉ࣌ʹ ಉ͡৔ॴͰ ಉ͡ίϯϐϡʔλʔͰʜ On the same thing... At the same time... In the same place... On the same computer... —Mob Programming A Whole Team Approach" / Agile 2014, Woody Zuill ϞϒϓϩάϥϛϯάϞϒϓϩ

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6OEFSTUBOEJOH$ZDMF5JNF%JTUSJCVUJPO4IBQFT5SPZ.BHFOOJTʹΑΔͱɺ w ґଘʹΑͬͯαΠΫϧλΠϜͷ෼෍ܗ͕ҟͳΔͱ͍͏Ծઆ͕͋Δ w ґଘ͕খ͍͞ɺ͋Δ͍͸ͳ͍৔߹ɺ։ൃ͕࣌ؒࢧ഑తʹͳΔͨΊɺࠨଆʹϐʔΫ͕དྷΔ ϞϒϓϩͱϦʔυλΠϜ҆ఆੑ Teams with few (or no) external dependencies ґଘ͕গͳ͍ɺ͋Δ͍͸ແ͍νʔϜ Tams who limit WIP (eg. kanban teams) WIP੍ݶ͕͋ΔνʔϜʢeg. Kanbanʣ Teams who do batch iterations (eg. Scrum teams) όον݁߹νʔϜʢeg. εΫϥϜʣ Teams who do large batches (waterfall) ڊେͳόον݁߹νʔϜʢeg.΢ΥʔλʔϑΥʔϧʣ

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๻ͨͪͷνʔϜͷ࣮ଌ஋ w ϞϒϓϩʹΑΓ8*1̍ɺ֎෦಺෦ґଘ͕ͳ͍ػೳԣஅνʔϜΛ࣮ݱ w αΠΫϧλΠϜͷϐʔΫ͕Ұ൪ࠨ ϞϒϓϩͱϦʔυλΠϜ҆ఆੑ

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w αΠΫϧλΠϜ͕ʮ҆ఆ͍ͯ͠Δʢඪ४ภ͕ࠩখ͍͞ʣʯ͜ͱ͕େ੾ ਺͕Θ͔Ε͹ɺ͍͍ͩͨͲΕ͘Β͍ͰऴΘΕΔ͔ɺ͕Θ͔Δ ϞϒϓϩͱϦʔυλΠϜ҆ఆੑ

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w ৗʹνʔϜͷϕετίϯσΟγϣϯ͕ͱΕΔ w ݸਓʢಛʹzΤʔεzʣͷௐࢠ΍ɺͩΕ͔͕ൈ͚ͨ͜ͱʹεϧʔϓοτ ͕ࠨӈ͞Εͳ͍ Ϟϒϓϩͱεϧʔϓοτ҆ఆੑ .PC5FTUJOH"O*OUSPEVDUJPO&YQFSJFODF3FQPSU

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ن໛ͷʮݟੵΓʯʹ෇ਵͯ͠நग़͞ΕΔՁ஋ʮ৘ใʯ ϓϥϯχϯάϙʔΧʔ౳ͷݟੵΓϓϥΫςΟεͰ͸ɺ ʮ਺ࣈ͕༩͑ΒΕΔ͜ͱʯΑΓ΋ ʮඞཁͳ৘ใ͕ઐ໳Ո͔Βسጨͳ͘ूΊΒΕ͍ͯΔʯ͜ͱ͕େ੾ ʜσϧϑΝΠ๏ w ϞϒϓϩͰ͸ৗʹɺνʔϜશһͷҙݟΛू໿͠ͳ͕ΒਐΊ͍ͯΔ w ਐΊํͷେ·͔ͳ߹ҙ͑͞ͱ͓͚ͬͯ͹ɺ͋ͱ͸ਐΈͳ͕Β൑அͰ͖Δ lਐΈͳ͕Βz͸ɺղ૾౓͕࠷େͷঢ়ଶͰ͍͍ͩͨ࠷ྑ εϓϦϯτʢ։ൃ࡞ۀʣ༧ଌՄೳੑ ϞϒϓϩͱσϧϑΝΠ๏

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w ʮ͜ͷλεΫʹඞཁͳ࠷௿ݶͷ࡞ۀͰਐΊΔʯ͜ͱʹνʔϜશһ͕߹ҙ w ʮίʔυͷ࣭ʯΛอͭͨΊʹඞཁͳཁૉʹ΋߹ҙ 65΍ϦϑΝΫλɺ໋໊ن໿ w ࣌ؒΛຒΊͯ͠·͏ʮͩ͜ΘΓϙΠϯτʯ͸ਓʹΑͬͯҧ͏ FHʮ΋ͬͱ͜Μͳॻ͖ํͷ΄͏͕ؔ਺ܕΆ͍ʜʯ FHʮ΍ͬͺ͜ͷϝιουͬͪ͜ͷΫϥεͷ΄͏͕ྑ͔͔ͬͨ΋ʜʯ w νʔϜશһͷ߹ҙͰਐΜͰ͍ΔͷͰɺ໎͍͕গͳ͍ ϞϒϓϩͱύʔΩϯιϯͷ๏ଇ ෳ਺ͷ໨ʹΑΔ:"(/* ৗʹλεΫͷαΠζΛ࠷খʹ཈͑Α͏ͱ͢Δྗ͕ಇ͘

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/P&TUJNBUFTΛࢧ͑Δ ϞϒϓϩͱεΫϥϜͷՁ஋ج४ͷؔ܎

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ϞϒϓϩʹΑΔʮूதʯ ෳ਺ͷࢹ఺Ͱ:"(/* ৴པͰ͖Δ ܭըͷެ։ ໿ଋΛकΔ ଚܟ ύʔΩϯιϯͷ๏ଇ ࢓ࣄͷϜμ ʮਖ਼֬͞ʯ͸࣌ؒΛ͔͚ͯ΋্͕Βͳ͍ ਫ਼౓ͷϜϥ ҆ఆ61 ˠ༧ଌՄೳੑ61 ৴པͰ͖Δܭଌ ༐ؾ

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εέδϡʔϧͷ ଚॏ νʔϜͷ z৴པͷϨΫλϯάϧz ݟੵΓBTBίϛοτϝϯτ ೲظͷϜϦ

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ཁٻ͞ΕΔ ϑΟʔνϟ ن໛ͷ ݟੵΓ ظؒ΁ͷ ม׵ ܭը αΠζ ظؒ Ձ஋ͷ ݟੵΓ Ձ஋ ༏ઌॱҐ ͚ͮ H Y ༏ઌॱҐ G Y ίετ ৘ใ w ૬ରݟੵΓ 41 w ཧ૝೔ݟੵΓ w ࡞Δॱ൪ ਺஋Խʹ̏.ͷࠜݯ ඞཁͩͬͨ΋ͷ͸ $PTUPG%FMBZ Ͱݟੵ΋Δ ϞϒϓϩͰ ΍Γͳ͕ΒूΊΔ ෼ׂͯ͠ɺ ͢΂ͯըҰతʹѻ͏

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ݟੵΓͷෛͷଆ໘ͱՁ஋ εΫϥϜͱݟੵΓ ๻ͨͪͷʮݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍εΫϥϜʯ ݱ࣮ͱʮݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍։ൃʯ /P&TUJNBUFT

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Ͳ͏΍ͬͯʮݟੵ͠ͳ͍։ൃʯΛ࢝Ίͨͷ͔ ʮݟੵ͠ͳ͍։ൃʯ͕޲͍͍ͯΔ͍ͳ͍৚݅ ݟੵΓ͠ͳͯ͘ࠔΔ͜ͱ Ͳ͏΍ͬͯೲظΛकΔͷ͔

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+645%0*5 ͱʹ͔͘΍ΊΔ

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w Ϛωδϟʔ͕λεΫΛΞαΠϯ͢Δ w λεΫΛΞαΠϯ͞Εͨ୲౰͕ʢҰਓͰʣݟੵΓ͢Δ w ୲౰͕ΨϯτνϟʔτʹਐḿΛೖྗ͢Δ w ҰिؒʹҰ౓ɺϚωδϟʔ͕Ϗδωεͱਐḿڞ༗.5( w ೲظ͸ҰԠ͕͋ͬͨɺ͍͍ͩͨ஗ΕΔ ϝϯόʔ͕ࣗ෼ͷԘകͰέπΛ৳͹͢ ΋ͱ΋ͱʜʢ࠶ܝʣ

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w ΧϯόϯͷΈͷӡ༻ʹͳͬͨͱ͖ݟੵΓΛ͠ͳ͘ͳͬͨ ݟੵΓ͕ػೳ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍͜ͱʹΈΜͳؾ͕͍ͭͨ w ͔ΘΓʹɺʮ1#*ͷαΠζΛͳΔ΂͘খ͘͢͞Δʯ͜ͱΛ࢝Ίͨ w ͍͍͍ͩͨͭࠒͰ͖ͦ͏͔ɺ͕ϦΞϧλΠϜͰΘ͔ΔΑ͏ʹ w ʮ࣍ʹ΍Δ͜ͱʯͷॱ൪ɺʮࠓ΍͍ͬͯΔ͜ͱʯͷϦετ͕ެ։͞Εͨ ඞཁͳͷ͸ݟੵΓͰ͸ͳ͘ɺ͜ͷ৘ใͩͬͨ ্࢘Λר͖ࠐΉʙΧϯόϯͷಋೖ ΍Ί͔ͯΒҰ౓΋ݟੵΓΛٻΊΒΕͨ͜ͱ͸ͳ͍

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ಉ࣌ظɿϞϒϓϩͷಋೖ w 8*1੍͕ݶ͞ΕΔ͜ͱʹΑΓɺ1#*ͷσϦόϦ͕ૣ͘ͳͬͨ w ʮ͍ͭࠒग़ͯ͘Δ͔ʁʯͷ৴པ౓͕Ψϯτνϟʔτͷͱ͖ΑΓ ্͕ͬͨ w ΈΜͳ͕λεΫΛ෼ׂ͠ɺಓےΛཱͯΒΕΔΑ͏ʹͳͬͨ

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w ϨτϩεϖΫςΟϒ νʔϜશମΛר͖ࠐΉͨΊɺ·ͣ͜ΕΛ࣮ࢪͨ͠ w εϓϦϯτϓϥϯχϯά ࠓिͳʹ͕Ͱ͖Δ͔ʢԿΛग़ͯ͠΄͍͔͠ʣʁͷಉظ͕ඞཁͩͬͨ w όοΫϩάϦϑΝΠϯϝϯτ ༏ઌॱҐͷܾΊํʹಁ໌ੑ͕ඞཁͩͬͨ w σΠϦʔεΫϥϜ ϞϒϓϩΛ࢝Ί͔ͯΒɺͦͷ೔ͷ࡞ઓΛཱͯΔͨΊࣗવͱ࢝·ͬͨ w ϨϏϡʔ ࣗવͱɺඞཁͳਓʹϑΟʔυόοΫΛ໯͍ʹߦ͘Α͏ʹ ϏδωεΛר͖ࠐΉʙͦͯ͠εΫϥϜ΁ ௚໘ͨ͠՝୊ʹରԠ͢ΔͨΊɺεΫϥϜΠϕϯτΛঃʑʹ࣮૷

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Ͳ͏΍ͬͯʮݟੵ͠ͳ͍։ൃʯΛ࢝Ίͨͷ͔ ʮݟੵ͠ͳ͍։ൃʯ͕޲͍͍ͯΔ͍ͳ͍৚݅ ݟੵΓ͠ͳͯ͘ࠔΔ͜ͱ Ͳ͏΍ͬͯೲظΛकΔͷ͔

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։ൃνʔϜ w νʔϜ͕͋Δఔ౓੒ख़͍ͯ͠Δ ػೳԣஅνʔϜͰ͋ΓɺΠϯΫϦϝϯπΛ࡞੒͢ΔͷʹඞཁͳٕೳΛඋ͍͑ͯΔ ࣗݾ૊৫Խ͞Εɺࣗ෼ͨͪͰεϓϦϯτʹ౤ೖՄೳͳ1#* 4#*ͷΩϟύΛ൑அͰ͖Δ w ࢓ࣄΛ͢͢ΊΒΕΔεϐʔυͷ࣮੷஋͕͋Γɺ҆ఆ͍ͯ͠Δ w 1#* 4#*ͷ෼ׂʢόʔςΟΧϧεϥΠεʣαΠδϯά͕͏·͘Ͱ͖Δ w ্͔࢘Β৴པ͞ΕɺݖݶΛҕৡͯ͠΋Β͑Δ ࣮͸Ұ൪େࣄ͔΋ ௕͘ଓ͍͍ͯΔνʔϜͷ΄͏͕੒ཱ͠΍ͦ͢͏

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w ೲظۦಈͰͳ͘ɺػೳσϦόϦۦಈ ೲظۦಈͰ΋ɺείʔϓͷมߋʹཧղ͕͋Ε͹Մೳ͔΋͠Εͳ͍ w Ϗδωεͱ։ൃͷؒʹ৴པؔ܎͕͋ΔʢϏδωεΛר͖ࠐΊΔʣ νʔϜ΁ͷ͍͔ٙΒݫ͍͠ೲظ΁ͷίϛοτΛٻΊΒΕΔ͜ͱ͕ͳ͍ όοΫϩάϦϑΝΠϯϝϯτͳͲɺඞཁͳΠϕϯτʹڠྗͯ͘͠ΕΔ ॳظ্ཱͪ͛ϑΣʔζӡ༻άϩʔεϑΣʔζ ϓϩμΫτϏδωεͱͷؔ܎

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dݸ͕ຬͨ͞Ε͍ͯΕ͹ɺ΄͔͸΍Δ͏ͪʹ֫ಘ͞Ε͍ͯ͘ νʔϜʹࡋྔ͕͋Δ͔ ܭըͷಁ໌ੑΛ֬อͰ͖Δ͔ ͕ΩʔϙΠϯτ ͚ͩͲʜ ͲΕ΋े෼৚݅Ͱ͋Γɺඞཁ৚݅Ͱ͸ͳ͍ ϞϒϓϩΛ࢝ΊΔɺ͸࢝Ίͷྑ͍Ұख

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Ͳ͏΍ͬͯʮݟੵ͠ͳ͍։ൃʯΛ࢝Ίͨͷ͔ ʮݟੵ͠ͳ͍։ൃʯ͕޲͍͍ͯΔ͍ͳ͍৚݅ ݟੵΓ͠ͳͯ͘ࠔΔ͜ͱ Ͳ͏΍ͬͯೲظΛकΔͷ͔

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ۙࢹ؟తʹͳΓ͕ͪ

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w ௕ظ໨ઢͷ1#*͕࣮ߦ͞ΕͮΒ͘ͳ͘ͳͬͨ ٕज़తෛ࠴ͷฦ٫ɺෆศ఺ͷվળɺେہతͳݚڀ։ൃ w ௚ۙʹṶ͔Γͦ͏ɺΈ͍ͨͳ1#*͕༏ઌ౓ߴ͘ͳΓ͕ͪ w ਅ໖ͰटΛߜΊΒΕΔΑ͏ͳײ֮ʹ $%Λಋೖͯ͠ɺʮશͯͷ1#*ΛۚમՁ஋Ͱൺ΂ΒΕͯ࠷ߴʯ ʮ͜Ε͕Ұ൪Ṷ͔Δॱ൪ʯͱࢥ͍͕ͬͯͨ ۙࢹ؟తɿத௕ظతͳࢹ఺ͷܽ೗ 30*Λ΍Ίͨฐ֐ɻݟੵΓ͋Μ·Γؔ܎ͳ͍

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w ϓϩμΫτϙʔτϑΥϦΦͷಋೖ ৽ن։ൃɿ)PHF վળɿ'VHB ෛ࠴ରԠɿ)PHF'VHB w த௕ظͷܭը͸0,3Ͱํ޲͚ͮ ʮ࣍ͷ࢛൒ظ͸ԿΛڧԽ͢Δ͔ʯʮͲΜͳ঎ചΛ͢Δ͔ʯ ͏·͘ػೳ͍ͯ͠Δͱ͸ݴ͍೉͍ʜ த௕ظతͳࢹ఺ͷܽ೗ɿରࡦ

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ೲظ஗Ԇ ͨ͠

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యܕతͳίϛϡχέʔγϣϯϛε ݟੵΓ͢Δ͠ͳ͍͸ؔ܎ͳ͔ͬͨʜ ڈ೥ͷ݄̔ࠒ ͨ·ʹ͋Δʮ঎඼ͷൃച೔ͳͲܖ໿্֎ͤͳ͍ೲظͷରԠʯΛϛεͬͨ Ϗδɿʮ / ೔·Ͱ͸ΫϥΠΞϯτͱௐ੔Ͱ͖·͢ ɹʢ͚Ͳ΄Μͱ͸/೔͔Β഑৴͍ͨ͠ʣʯ ։ൃɿʮ/೔·Ͱʹ͸ऴΘΓͦ͏Ͱ͢ ɹʢ͚Ͳ/೔ʹ഑৴ɺͰ͍͍ΜͰ͢ ʙͦͯ͠/೔౰೔ʙ Ϗδɿʮ͋Εʁࠓ೔഑৴Ͱ͖ΔΜ͡Όͳ͔ͬͨͰ͚ͨͬ͠ʁʯ ։ൃɿʮ͋Εʁ໌ޙ೔Ͱ͍͍Μ͡Όͳ͔ͬͨͰ͚ͨͬ͠ʁʯ

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݁࿦ɿ ͋Μ·Γ ࠔͬͯͳ͍

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Ͳ͏΍ͬͯʮݟੵ͠ͳ͍։ൃʯΛ࢝Ίͨͷ͔ ʮݟੵ͠ͳ͍։ൃʯ͕޲͍͍ͯΔ͍ͳ͍৚݅ ݟੵΓ͠ͳͯ͘ࠔΔ͜ͱ Ͳ͏΍ͬͯೲظΛकΔͷ͔

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w ͳͥͦͷೲظ͕ඞཁͳͷ͔ʢཧ༝͕͋Δͷ͔ʣ આ໌Ͱ͖ͳ͍ೲظ͸ଟ෼͍Βͳ͍ w ௐ੔ؚΊɺ͍ͭ·Ͱ஗Εͤ͞ΒΕΔͷ͔ w ೲظ஗Ԇ͢ΔͱԿ͕ى͜Δͷ͔ ҧ໿ۚͳͲͷίετ͕ൃੜ͢Δʁ w ೲظۙ͘ͳΔ΄Ͳɺঢ়گΛ஗Ԇͳ͘ڞ༗͢Δ ຊ౰ͷೲظΛ֬ೝ͢Δ ඞཁͳίϛϡχέʔγϣϯΛऔΔ ˞ݟੵΓؔ܎ͳ͍

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#1 Reason we miss deadlines We START too late ೲظʹؒʹ߹Θͳ͍Ұ൪ͷཧ༝͸ɺ ࢝ΊΔͷ͕஗͗͢Δ͔Βʂ ૣ࢝͘ΊΔ Š5SPZ.BHFOOJT

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w جຊ͸$% $%͸ຊ࣭తʹ͸ʮԿΛ࢝ΊΔ͔ʯͰ͸ͳ͘ɺʮԿΛ஗ΒͤΔ͔ʯ ΛܾΊ͍ͯΔ $%߱ॱɺͰ൑அ͢Ε͹ྑ͍ঢ়ଶʹ͓ͯ͘͠ w ૣ࢝͘ΊΔ ࠷௿Ͱ΋̍εϓϦϯτͷ༨༟Λ࣋ͬͯ࢝ΊΔ z͜ΕҎ্஗ΒͤΒΕͳ͍఺zΛ༨നࠐΈͰܭࢉ͢Δ ૣ࢝͘ΊΔʹ͸ʮ஗ΒͤΔ΋ͷΛܾΊΔʯ

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ݟੵΓͳ͠Ͱ΋ ೲظ͸कΕΔʂʂ

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ݟੵΓͷෛͷଆ໘ͱՁ஋ wෛͷଆ໘ʜ਺஋ԽʹΑΔϜϦ Ϝμ Ϝϥ wՁ஋ʜܭըͮ͘Γʹඞཁͳίετ ৘ใ Ձ஋ εΫϥϜͱݟੵΓ w༏ઌॱҐ ΩϟύγςΟ ίϛοτϝϯτ ਐḿ؅ཧ ๻ͨͪͷʮݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍εΫϥϜʯ wαΠδϯά εϧʔϓοτ௥੻ 4DSVN7BMVFTͱ৴པ wϞϒϓϩ͕ίΞϓϩηε ݱ࣮ͱʮݟੵΓ͠ͳ͍։ൃʯ/P&TUJNBUFT w௕͍νʔϜͷ΄͏͕࢝Ί΍͍͢ wݟੵΓ͕ͳͯ͘΋ࠔͬͯͳ͍ wೲظΛकΔʹ͸ɺૣ࢝͘ΊΔ ·ͱΊ

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ʢݟੵΓ΋͍͍͚Ͳʣ Ϟϒϓϩ ΍Ζ͏ͥʂ

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Thank You for Your Kind Attention! UXJUUFS!NBSUJO@MPWFS@TF Thank you for English proof reading! Arnab Gupta, Hideaki Oshima,ɹ Cherifa Mansoura Thank you for meaningful feedback! Koichi Yoshida, Nobuaki Miura, Hiroki Konishi, Minoru Yokomichi

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• ΞδϟΠϧͳݟੵΓͱܭըͮ͘ΓՁ஋͋Διϑτ΢ΣΞΛҭͯΔ֓೦ͱٕ๏.JLF$PIO • ϦʔϯΤϯλʔϓϥΠζʕʕΠϊϕʔγϣϯΛ࣮ݱ͢Δ૑ൃతͳ૊৫ͮ͘Γ#BSSZ0`3FJMMZ +PBOOF.PMFTLZ +F[)VNCMF • εΫϥϜɹ࢓ࣄ͕̐ഒ଎͘ͳΔlੈքඪ४zͷνʔϜઓज़+F⒎4VUIFSMBOE • εΫϥϜΨΠυ,FO4DIXBCFS +F⒎4VUIFSMBOE • 6OEFSTUBOEJOH$ZDMF5JNF%JTUSJCVUJPO4IBQFT5SPZ.BHFOOJT • 8IBU`TUIFTUPSZBCPVU"HJMF%BUB5SPZ.BHFOOJT • .PC1SPHSBNNJOH"8IPMF5FBN"QQSPBDI"HJMF 8PPEZ;VJMM • #FZPOE&TUJNBUFT-JGF -JCFSUZ BOEUIF1VSTVJUPG"HJMJUZ8PPEZ;VJMM ◦ /P&TUJNBUF1SPHSBNNJOH4FSJFTr*OUSP1PTU ◦ $BO8F$PEF8JUIPVU&TUJNBUFT ◦ 8IZEPXFOFFEFTUJNBUFT • 5IF)JEEFO$PTUPG&TUJNBUFT$ISJT-VDJBO • 4PGUXBSF&TUJNBUJPO1BSBEPY$ISJT-VDJBO ◦ ʲ຋༁ʳιϑτ΢ΣΞݟੵΓͷύϥυοΫε1PPI4VOOZ`TCMPH • 8IBU4DSVN4BZT"CPVU&TUJNBUFT4DSVNPSH4MBWB.PTLBMFOLP • 5IFMPHJDPG/P&TUJNBUFT/P&TUJNBUFTGPMMPXTJOUIFGPPUTUFQTPG"HJMFBOE4DSVN8JMMFN+BO"HFMJOH • /P&TUJNBUFT1BSU Š %PJOH4DSVN8JUIPVU&TUJNBUFT • .PC5FTUJOH"O*OUSPEVDUJPO&YQFSJFODF3FQPSU ࢀߟɾҾ༻