NS - Speaker Deck

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Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? Validation method for determining high-risk time and locations of graffiti attacks on trains 13 September 2023 Branka Milivojevic, PhD Senior Data Scientist Nederlandse Spoorwegen

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Outline ■ Who? ■ Why? ■ What? ■ How? ■ Where? ■ When? 2 Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?

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Who? Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?

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More than trains Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?

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SCUBA Bram Zandbelt Wouter Hordijk Branka Milivojevic Luca Verhees Marthe Veldhuis Robbert Huisman Lucas Fijen SCUBA Scientific Computing Unit for Business Advancement Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?

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Why? Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?

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142.000 m2 Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 7

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Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 8

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€10 million Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 9

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+65% Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 10

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What? Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?

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Prevention is better than cure! Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 12

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Data-driven security guard deployment Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 13

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Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 14 Data problem: Risk prediction Business problem: Security deployment

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First step Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 15

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Challenges… Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?

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Moving target Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 17

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Delayed reports Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 18

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Criminal activity Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 19 This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY

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How? Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?

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Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 21 Train positions and speeds Graffiti reports Locations Schoolvakanties Hypotheses and assumptions Meteorological conditions

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Graffiti reports Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 22 3 2 1 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 RS number 16424 Week

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Graffiti reports Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 23

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Train layover locations Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 24

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ProRail locations Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 25

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Meteorological conditions Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 26

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Security reports: limited Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 27

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When and Where? Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?

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Modelling Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 29

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Overview Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 30

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Model comparison Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 31

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Validation Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 32

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Challenge Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 33

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Simulations Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 34

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Simulation comparison Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 35

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1 2 9 7 4/5 & 6 3 8 Location evaluation Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

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Time evaluation Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 37 Frequentie van vermoedelijk incidenten op uren van de dag Uren