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September 15, 2023
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September 15, 2023
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Transcript
Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? Validation
method for determining high-risk time and locations of graffiti attacks on trains 13 September 2023 Branka Milivojevic, PhD Senior Data Scientist Nederlandse Spoorwegen
Outline ▪ Who? ▪ Why? ▪ What? ▪ How? ▪
Where? ▪ When? 2 Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
Who? Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
More than trains Graffiti on trains: When and where were
they vandalised?
SCUBA Bram Zandbelt Wouter Hordijk Branka Milivojevic Luca Verhees Marthe
Veldhuis Robbert Huisman Lucas Fijen SCUBA Scientific Computing Unit for Business Advancement Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
Why? Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
142.000 m2 Graffiti on trains: When and where were they
vandalised? 7
Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 8
€10 million Graffiti on trains: When and where were they
vandalised? 9
+65% Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
10
What? Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
Prevention is better than cure! Graffiti on trains: When and
where were they vandalised? 12
Data-driven security guard deployment Graffiti on trains: When and where
were they vandalised? 13
Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 14
Data problem: Risk prediction Business problem: Security deployment
First step Graffiti on trains: When and where were they
vandalised? 15
Challenges… Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
Moving target Graffiti on trains: When and where were they
vandalised? 17
Delayed reports Graffiti on trains: When and where were they
vandalised? 18
Criminal activity Graffiti on trains: When and where were they
vandalised? 19 This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY
How? Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 21
Train positions and speeds Graffiti reports Locations Schoolvakanties Hypotheses and assumptions Meteorological conditions
Graffiti reports Graffiti on trains: When and where were they
vandalised? 22 3 2 1 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 RS number 16424 Week
Graffiti reports Graffiti on trains: When and where were they
vandalised? 23
Train layover locations Graffiti on trains: When and where were
they vandalised? 24
ProRail locations Graffiti on trains: When and where were they
vandalised? 25
Meteorological conditions Graffiti on trains: When and where were they
vandalised? 26
Security reports: limited Graffiti on trains: When and where were
they vandalised? 27
When and Where? Graffiti on trains: When and where were
they vandalised?
Modelling Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
29
Overview Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
30
Model comparison Graffiti on trains: When and where were they
vandalised? 31
Validation Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
32
Challenge Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
33
Simulations Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
34
Simulation comparison Graffiti on trains: When and where were they
vandalised? 35
1 2 9 7 4/5 & 6 3 8 Location
evaluation Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Time evaluation Graffiti on trains: When and where were they
vandalised? 37 Frequentie van vermoedelijk incidenten op uren van de dag Uren
Conclusions Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
Thank you! Questions? Graffiti on trains: When and where were
they vandalised?