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1. Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? Validation method for determining high-risk time and locations of graffiti attacks on trains 13 September 2023 Branka Milivojevic, PhD Senior Data Scientist Nederlandse Spoorwegen
2. Outline ▪ Who? ▪ Why? ▪ What? ▪ How? ▪ Where? ▪ When? 2 Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
3. Who? Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
4. More than trains Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
5. SCUBA Bram Zandbelt Wouter Hordijk Branka Milivojevic Luca Verhees Marthe Veldhuis Robbert Huisman Lucas Fijen SCUBA Scientific Computing Unit for Business Advancement Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
6. Why? Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
7. 142.000 m2 Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 7
8. Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 8
9. €10 million Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 9
10. +65% Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 10
11. What? Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
12. Prevention is better than cure! Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 12
13. Data-driven security guard deployment Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 13
14. Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 14 Data problem: Risk prediction Business problem: Security deployment
15. First step Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 15
16. Challenges… Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
17. Moving target Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 17
18. Delayed reports Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 18
19. Criminal activity Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 19 This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY
20. How? Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
21. Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 21 Train positions and speeds Graffiti reports Locations Schoolvakanties Hypotheses and assumptions Meteorological conditions
22. Graffiti reports Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 22 3 2 1 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 RS number 16424 Week
23. Graffiti reports Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 23
24. Train layover locations Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 24
25. ProRail locations Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 25
26. Meteorological conditions Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 26
27. Security reports: limited Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 27
28. When and Where? Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
29. Modelling Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 29
30. Overview Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 30
31. Model comparison Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 31
32. Validation Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 32
33. Challenge Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 33
34. Simulations Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 34
35. Simulation comparison Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 35
36. 1 2 9 7 4/5 & 6 3 8 Location evaluation Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
37. Time evaluation Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised? 37 Frequentie van vermoedelijk incidenten op uren van de dag Uren
38. Conclusions Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?
39. Thank you! Questions? Graffiti on trains: When and where were they vandalised?