Nova Scotia Association of Realtors

November 23rd, 2012 presentation to Commercial Forum.

Transcript

1. HALIFAX – E CONOMIC AND INVE S TME NT ATTR ACTION UPDATE DAVID FLEMING, ECONOMIST DATE: NOVEMBER 23RD, 2012
2. WHO WE ARE AND WHAT WE DO The Greater Halifax Partnership is the lead economic development organization for Halifax. Keep and grow business Attract New Investment Strengthen our community Help our people succeed The Greater Halifax Partnership works to…
3. WHAT WE DO: We stimulate economic growth by helping people make confident, bold and smart decisions about their businesses and their working lives We plan, pursue and champion the ideas and actions that help our city grow for the good of every citizen. We connect and align people, organizations, businesses, ideas, and resources to nurture, keep and grow business and strengthen every community in our city
4. HOW IS IT WOR K ING? Indicator 2001 2012 (Latest) Trend Population 359,000 408,200 Employment 189,400 227,400 Unemployment Rate 7.0% 5.4% Inflation Rate 2.0% 1.3% Housing Starts (YTD) 1,822 1,907 Average Weekly Earnings (2007 to 2012) $664 $823 Retail Sales ($ Millions YTD) 2,518 3,842 University Enrolment 30,233 30,792
5. HOUS ING MAR K E T 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Housing starts, annual, Halifax Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation
6. HOUS ING PR ICE S 77.7 80.2 83.3 86.7 88.3 94 94.7 101.6 108.7 109.2 110 112.6 114.9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 New housing price index, September 2000 - 2012 Source: Statistics Canada
7. HOUS ING COS TS
8. HOUS ING AFFOR DAB ILITY
9. CONS TR UCTION
10. E CONOMIC FOR E CAS T – CONFE R E NCE B OAR D
11. E MPLOYME NT PR OJ E CTIONS – NS – 2011-16
16. OCT/NOV ANNOUNCE ME NTS IBM Canada Selects Nova Scotia as Its First Canadian Global Delivery Centre Location – 500 IT jobs created over 8 years. PROJEX Technologies Brings Jobs East • 440 new jobs over the next five years in remote Oil and Gas engineering. The estimated average salary, in a range of positions, will be $90,000 plus benefits.
17. Irving National Shipbuilding Project $25b Emera Maritime Power transmission Line $1.2b Shell Offshore Exploration Project $1b Potash Corp. Mine $1.7b Point Lepreau Nuclear Facility Refurbishment $1.4B Atlantic Canada Mega-projects Total $60.8b Here Are A Few Examples: ATLANTIC CANADA ME GA-PR OJ E CTS White Rose Oil Fields Expansion $3.5b Long Harbour Plant $2.8b Hibernia South$1.7b Hebron Oil Field$8.3b
18. LAS T J ANUARY….S HE LL
19. OFFS HOR E CALL FOR B IDS R E S PONS E NOVE MB E R 16 2012
20. LOWE R CHUR CHILL PR OJ E CT
22. MAJ OR PR OJ E CTS : S HIPS
23. THE B R OAD E CONOMIC IMPACTS FOR NOVA S COTIA, 2012-30 *Direct, indirect and induced in Nova Scotia. **All dollar values except real GDP are shown in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars. Real GDP is shown in basic prices 2002 dollars). Source: Conference Board of Canada (May 2011) Summary Economic Impact in Nova Scotia by NSPS Project Dollar values shown in $Millions Annual Average Combat Scenario Employment* 8,453 Real GDP (basic prices) $661 Federal Income Taxes $66 Provincial Income Taxes $51 Corporate Income Taxes $34 Indirect Taxes $115 Personal Income $447
24. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Increase in Employment - Combat Vessel Scenario Source: Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada Nova Scotia
25. WHE R E WILL PE OPLE S PE ND
26. AOPS S TATUS Major Milestone *AOPS DND Published Date NSPS Selection of Shipyards October 2011 ✔ Signing of Umbrella Agreement February 2012 ✔ Signing of AOPS Ancillary Contract (initial planning) June 27, 2012 ✔ Signing of AOPS Design Contract 2013 Finalize Engineering & Planning 2015 Signing of AOPS Build Contract 2015 Cut Steel on First AOPS 2015 Delivery of First AOPS 2018 AOPS Program Complete 2024 * Dates published by DND as of May 9, 2012
27. B US INE S S E S AR E MODE R ATE LY OPTIMIS TIC 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Extremely optimistic Moderately optimistic Not very optimistic Not at all optimistic Don't know/no answer Optimism rating of current economic prospects for HRM businesses Source: GHP Business Confidence Survey Autumn 2011 Spring 2012 Autumn 2012
28. 5 years from now…more s o 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Extremely optimistic Moderately optimistic Not very optimistic Not at all optimistic Don't know/no answer Optimism rating of future economic prospects (5 years) for HRM businesses Source: GHP Business Confidence Survey Autumn 2011 Spring 2012 Autumn 2012
29. Foreign direct inves tment – the increas ed role of cities • FDI is defined as the acquisition by residents of one country of real assets (as opposed to financial assets) in another country • The benefits of inward FDI are: – capital formation – well-paid jobs – increased tax revenues – Spillovers (technology transfers, techniques, processes, management, etc.)
30. IMPOR TANCE OF FDI TO ATLANTIC CANADA • 2008 Conference Board study for ACOA • The study found that, on average, the investment phase of inward FDI supported 22,500 jobs in the Atlantic Canada region between 2004 and 2006, equivalent to 2.1 per cent of employment in the region. • The operational phase of FDI created an estimated 31,800 positions annually for the region
31. Nova s cotia’s FDI - Current 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Inward foreign direct investment, $millions Source: Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada World North America European Union Asia Rest of world
32. FOR E IGN CAPITAL E XPE NDITUR E S 13.7% 43.6% 2.9% 9.1% 7.3% 9.1% 13.9% 8.4% 4.8% 18.3% 12.7% Canada Nfld PEI NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Foreign capital expenditures as a % of total capital expenditures, 2011 Source: Statistics Canada
33. THE IMPOR TANCE OF CITIE S TO FDI
34. Halifax is a regional hub – economic influence
35. WHY AR E CITIE S IMPOR TANT FOR FDI? • a highly educated workforce (skill effect) • a high level of spending on R&D (innovation effect) • penetration of new technologies (particularly information and communications technology) • strong regional clusters (industry specialization effect) • infrastructure and accessibility (access effect)
36. Fdi – halifax’s future • Major projects will attract major attention from FDI companies – supply chain opportunities should boost Nova Scotia’s FDI % in the future • Labour supply is critical – ensuring we have the talent FDI companies are looking for • FDI friendly policies – low tax rates may be challenging, but regulation, incentives and economic growth stimulation as well as talent attraction can help
37. E CONOMIC FOR E CAS T – CONFE R E NCE B OAR D
38. Any questions?