Towards a framework for space traffic control

Transcript

1. Towards a framework for space traffic control Anna Ho (Caltech) ah@astro.caltech.edu
2. Image Credit: NASA Altitude: 350 km / 250 miles (Low Earth Orbit) International Space Station
3. Swift (X-Ray, Gamma Ray) Palomar Observatory (Optical) Keck Observatory (Optical, IR) Very Large Array (Radio) New Mexico Hawaii California Earth orbit
4. The Very Large Array of Radio Telescopes (VLA) Socorro, New Mexico
5. Observational Astronomy Continuous, connected coverage
6. Robotic observation and coordination
7. Modern observational astronomy A comprehensive technological infrastructure for monitoring the whole sky in real-time Continuous, connected coverage Robotic observation and coordination Coverage of the full electromagnetic spectrum, from radio waves to gamma rays
8. Thank you to David Wright (UCS) Laura Grego (UCS) Brian Weeden (Secure World Foundation) Moriba Jah (UT Austin)
9. Towards a framework for space traffic control Traffic Report Responsible Parties Space Traffic Management 80+ countries and companies US Department of Defense US Department of Defense…?
10. Image Credit: NASA Orbital Debris Program Office Traffic Report
11. Image Credit: NASA Orbital Debris Program Office Traffic Report Earth orbit is getting crowded, and collisions are now a serious risk.
12. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0 5000 10000 15000 Number of Objects Figure modified from NASA Orbital Debris Program Office Traffic Report Earth orbit is getting crowded, and collisions are now a serious risk.
13. 100 million? pieces < 1 mm, less detected and untracked 500,000? ~ 1-10 cm, detected but untracked 23,000 > 10 cm, tracked Traffic Report Earth orbit is getting crowded, and collisions are now a serious risk.
14. Responsible Parties It’s becoming easier and cheaper to build satellites, e.g. CubeSats Image Credit: NASA
15. Responsible Parties Space is becoming accessible, and now there are over 60 nations with space-based interests. Image Credit: Union of Concerned Scientists
16. Responsible Parties Roughly half of operational satellites are run by nations. Most of the rest are commercial (e.g., Google & global broadband Internet)
17. Responsible Parties Large constellations are becoming more common.
18. Responsible Parties Article VI of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty: States are liable for space activities of both governmental and non-governmental entities, so need to manage authorization and supervision. Large constellations are becoming more common.
19. Responsible Parties The growth in number and diversity of space actors — and the rise of large constellations — is making it challenging for nations to fulfill their obligations under the Outer Space Treaty. Article VI of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty: States are liable for space activities of both governmental and non-governmental entities, so need to manage authorization and supervision. Large constellations are becoming more common.
20. Space Traffic Management The technological and legal framework has not evolved to suit the landscape of what’s there and who’s putting it there.
21. Space Traffic Management Goals Short-term: safety for assets Long-term: sustainable use of environment The technological and legal framework has not evolved to suit the landscape of what’s there and who’s putting it there.
22. Space Traffic Management Goals Short-term: safety for assets Long-term: sustainable use of environment Fundamental requirement Space Situational Awareness (knowledge) The technological and legal framework has not evolved to suit the landscape of what’s there and who’s putting it there.
23. Space Traffic Management Technological Considerations Stability of orbit Size (sensitivity) Goals Short-term: safety for assets Long-term: sustainable use of environment Fundamental requirement Space Situational Awareness (knowledge) The technological and legal framework has not evolved to suit the landscape of what’s there and who’s putting it there. Detection ≠ unique ID
24. Space Traffic Management The U.S. Department of Defense has the most comprehensive system in the world: The Space Surveillance Network Image Credit: U.S. Space Command
25. Space Traffic Management The U.S. Department of Defense has the most comprehensive system in the world: The Space Surveillance Network Image Credit: U.S. Space Command Tracking data is analyzed by the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) JSpOC provides hundreds of warnings of close approaches to satellite operators every year. 2014, JSpOC issued 23 “emergency reportable” warnings per day, resulting in 120 maneuvers.
26. Limitations of JSpOC’s Space Surveillance Network: Coverage (mostly northern hemisphere) Privacy (hesitant to ingest or share) Outdated hardware, software, and algorithms Relevance (90% of warnings are unrelated) Key point: they cannot accurately track all potentially hazardous debris.
27. Limitations of JSpOC’s Space Surveillance Network: Coverage (mostly northern hemisphere) Privacy (hesitant to ingest or share) Outdated hardware, software, and algorithms Relevance (90% of warnings are unrelated) Key point: they cannot accurately track all potentially hazardous debris. In the meantime, the last 4-5 years has seen dramatic growth in the commercial space-tracking sector.
28. Towards a framework for space traffic control Traffic Report Responsible Parties Space Traffic Management Earth orbit is getting crowded, and collisions are now a serious risk. The growth in the diversity of space actors is making it challenging to fulfill OST obligations. Private entities are on track to match (and perhaps surpass) government capabilities.
29. Towards a framework for space traffic control Traffic Report Responsible Parties Space Traffic Management Time domain astronomy Earth orbit is getting crowded, and collisions are now a serious risk. The growth in the diversity of space actors is making it challenging to fulfill OST obligations. Private entities are on track to match (and perhaps surpass) government capabilities.
30. To learn more: [1] “Orbital Traffic Management Study,” 21 November 2016, Science Applications International Corporation, Owen Brown et al. (incl. Moriba Jah) [2] “Evaluating Options for Civil Space Situational Awareness (SSA),” Emily Nightingale, Bhavya Lal, Brian Weeden, Alyssa Picard, Anita Eisenstadt, August 2016 [3] “Space Traffic Management: Preventing a Real Life ‘Gravity’,” Hearing of the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, Brian Weeden, 9 May 2014 [4] “A History of Anti-Satellite Programs,” Laura Grego, January 2012, UCS [5] “Rules of the Road: Responsible Use of Weapons in Space,” Everett Carl Dolman, Winter 2011, Federation of American Scientists [6] “Managing Risk in Space,” Richard Dal Bello, Winter 2011, Federation of American Scientists [7] “Space Data Association: The Case for SSA Collaboration and Data Fusion,” Richard Dal Bello, Winter 2011, Federation of American Scientists [8] “How to Work in the New Space Security Environment,” S. Pete Worden, James Mason, Jan Stupl, and Creon Levit, Winter 2011, Federation of American Scientists [9] “Transparency and Confidence Building in Outer Space: Inching Toward Action,” Theresa Hitchens, Winter 2011, Federation of American Scientists [10] “Securing the Skies” November 2010, UCS, David Wright & Laura Grego [11] “Space Debris,” David Wright, October 2007, Physics Today
31. Thank you! Anna Ho (Caltech) ah@astro.caltech.edu
32. Credit: UCS
33. Coverage of the entire sky
34. Responsible Parties