Asian Integration

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Transcript

1. 1 ASEAN INTEGRATIOON What it means for Cambodia Chan Sophal (ច័ន សុផល) Former President of Cambodian Economic Association Presented at The Third Enrich Youth Forum 16 November 2014, CJCC, Phnom Penh
2. ASEAN with great variations between countries 2
3. Sharing the same destiny? One vision, One identity, One community 3
4. Three pillars of ASEAN Community សសរសម ំង បី របស់សហគមន៍ ៊ ន 4 1. សហគមន៍នេ យសនិសុខ ៊ ន 2. សហគមន៍េសដកិច ៊ ន 3. សហគមន៍សងមវប ធម៌ ៊ ន
6. or AEC AEC is the second pillar in ASEAN Community established to achieve ASEAN Vision 2020, which is “forming a stable, prosperous, and highly competitive region with free flow of goods, services, investment and freer flow of capital, equitable economic development and reduced poverty and socioeconomic disparities”. 6
7. Key characteristics of AEC 7 Competitive economic region Single market and production base Equitable Economic Development Integration into the Global Economy  Develop a competition policy  Strengthen consumer protection  Regional cooperation on IPRs  Improve taxation & e-commerce  Coherent approach towards external economic relations,  Enhance participation in global supply networks  Free flow of goods  Free flow of services  Free flow of investment  Free flow of capital  Free flow of skilled labour  SME development through ASEAN blueprint  Initiative for ASEAN integration to narrow development gap
8. Key measures in “A Single Market and Production Base” • ATIGA signed in 2009 as a more comprehensive legal instrument to enhance the CEPT-AFTA • Components: tariff liberalization, removal of non-tariff barriers, rule of origin, trade facilitation, custom, standards and conformance, SPS measures. free trade in goods • Full market access and national treatment • Remove substantially all restrictions on trade in services in 4 priority sectors: air transport, e-ASEAN, health care, and tourism plus logistic services by 2013; and other service sectors by 2015 • Mutual Recognition Arrangements (MRAs) on professional services free trade in services • Achieve free and open investment regime & enhance ASEAN’s attractiveness as an investment destination • ACIA cover: investment liberalization, protection, facilitation and promotion free flow of investment • Strengthen ASEAN Capital Market Development and Integration • Relax capital control measures on intra-ASEAN portfolio investment • Harmonize capital market-standard; facilitate market driven efforts to establish exchange and debt market linkage freer flow of capital • Remove discrimination on employment • Harmonize standards in education and training; MRA on vocational training freer flow of skilled labour 8
9. Analysis of the potential impact of joining the ASEAN Economic Community 9
10. Free inflow of goods from ASEAN is a big minus for Cambodia but can be offset by export to the rest of the world លំហូរចូលទំនិញ េ យ េសរីពី ៊ ន េធឲ នឱន ព ចំេ ះ កមុ ប៉ុែន ចទូ ត់ េ យ រ ំទំនិញ េ ប បេទស េផ ងៗេទ ត 10 + $$ Intermediate goods Consumer goods - $$$$ Export of goods by FDI firms to outside ASEAN Goods to ASEAN Source: Author’s analysis Posing huge constraints on micro, small and medium enterprises
11. Free flow of services, esp. tourism, is a plus for Cambodia លំហូរេស េ យ េសរី ពិេសស េទសចរណ ៍ នឹងេធឲ កម ុ ចំេណញ 11 + $$ tourism services services - $ services tourism services Source: Author’s analysis
12. Free flow of investment is a big plus for Cambodia លំហូរវិនិេ គ េ យ េសរី គឺ ផលចំេណញ ស ប់ កមុ 12 - $ Investment from ASEAN Investment from outside ASEAN + $$$ Investment to ASEAN Source: Author’s analysis to benefit from both freer input market and freer output market
13. Freer flow of capital is a plus for Cambodia លំហូរមូលធនេ យ េសរី ងមុន គឺ ផលចំេណញ ស ប់កមុ 13 - $ + $ $ Capital Capital Source: Author’s analysis
14. Free flow of skilled labour is a challenge for Cambodia but can help fill skill gaps in a medium future លំហូរពលកម នជំ ញ េ យ េសរី ច រ បឈម ចំេ ះ កមុ ក៏ ប៉ុែន ចជួយ បំេពញ កងះ តជំ ញ េ កមុ កុង រយៈេពល អ គត មធ ម 14 + $ Skilled labour helps fill skill gaps (Non-skilled labour) - $ (Non-skilled labour) Skilled labour Source: Author’s analysis
15. Net effects of ASEAN Economic Community on Cambodia ឥទិពល សរុប ៃន សហគមន៍េសដកិច ៊ ន មកេល កមុ 15 Free flow / Free market លំហូ រេ យេសរ ឬទីផ រេសរ Gain ចំេណញ Loss ត Net រួម 1. Goods (including intermediate goods) ទំនិញ (រួម ំងទំនិញ ក់ក លសេ មច) + - - - - - 2. Services (including tourism) េស (រួម ំងេទសចរណ៍) + + - + 3. Investment (incl. from non-ASEAN) វនិេ គ (រួម ំងមកពី បេទសេ ពី ៊ ន) + + + - + + 4. Capital មូលធន + + - + 5. Skilled labour ពលកម នជំ ញ + - +/- Total effect (ឥទិពលសរុប) +9 -7 ++ ? Source: Author’s analysis
16. Opportunities 1. A much bigger market potential for Cambodia (for local and foreign producers) 2. It will attract more foreign investment into Cambodia as well as the region 3. More finance is likely to come to Cambodia 4. Producers can better draw on inputs (including skilled labour) from ASEAN countries 5. More demand for skilled labour is likely to increase => more job opportunities for high performing professionals 16
17. Challenges • Goods and services from ASEAN countries without tariffs – Government will lose more tax revenue (but buyers, buyers and producers, will pay less) – Producers, especially MSMEs, will face tougher competition • Financial markets will be more exposed and can be volatile • Fear of influx of foreign workers to Cambodia – Only skilled labour is allowed in AEC – Cambodia’s labour is not as skilled or competitive? 17
18. What should Cambodia do?  Upgrade skills, starting from general schools  Continue to build quality infrastructure and effective institutions  Conduct in-depth analytical studies on potential impact of ASEAN community What should youth do?  Work harder! 18
19. សូមអរគុណ 19 Contact: sophal.chan@gmail.com