Triggering Interventions for Flu: The ALERT Algorithm
Presentation made at the International Society for Disease Surveillance conference describing the ALERT algorithm, a method for predicting the onset of influenza season.
Triggering Interventions for Flu: The ALERT Algorithm Nicholas G Reich Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology University of Massachusetts - Amherst 10 Dec 2015 :: ISDS :: Denver, CO @reichlab http://reichlab.github.io
The ResPECT Study Cluster-randomized clinical trial comparing N95 respirators vs. surgical masks at preventing respiratory infections in healthcare workers.
Why predict the flu? • For clinical trials, to time interventions. • In hospitals, to - start target screening for flu antiviral use, - limit patient visitation, - increase mandatory PPE usage. • For public health agencies, to determine the best timing for seasonal risk communication. “Predictions that give rise to actionable items that would not otherwise occur are important.” - Jay Varma, NYC DOHMH
What ALERT is • Threshold-based algorithm for surveillance data to give early warning signal for epidemic onset. • Simple method with cross-validated performance assessment. • A free online tool for hospital epidemiologists and public health officials. • Open-source, “beta” software (R package).
What ALERT is not • A statistical prediction model. (not yet…) • Generalizable for non-seasonal data. • A method for detecting outbreaks of emerging pathogens.
The future of ALERT [statistics] Incorporate non-parametric prediction model. [epidemiology] Apply ALERT to other seasonal diseases. [software] Continue development and support of web applet and open-source R package.