apidays Paris - Are the providers’ sustainability strategies... sustainable?, Arnaud Gueguen, Shift Project

apidays Paris 2022 - APIs the next 10 years: Software, Society, Sovereignty, Sustainability
December 14, 15 & 16, 2022

Are the providers’ sustainability strategies... sustainable ?
Arnaud Gueguen, Sustainability Consultant at DarwinX and Member of Lean ICT and Climate Education Working Group at Shift Project
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Transcript

1. 1 Arnaud Gueguen The Shift Project Are the providers’ sustainability strategies... sustainable ? Exploring the question through the lens of Systems Theory
2. 2 ICT Climate Impact Exponential GHG emissions àWhat is the problem we’re looking at ? +6%/year = double every 12 y à exponential issue = system growth issue ? ICT GHG MTons CO2e/y 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 “Systems thinking [is] a way of thinking about (…) the forces and interrelationships that shape the behavior of systems. This discipline helps us to see how to change systems more effectively, and to act more in tune with the natural processes of the natural and economic world. ». Peter Senge àWhat are these System Theory lens?
3. 3 Network +26%/year DC Traffic +35%/year DC Storage +40%/year Smartphone +9%/year 3.6 devices/capita In the world 7,6 billions IIoT +60%/year data on mobile network DATA DEVICES Mobile Network https://theshiftproject.org/article/impact-environnemental-du-numerique-5g-nouvelle-etude-du-shift/ Usage Effect Capacity Effect « Reinforcing feedback loops are self-enhancing, leading to exponential growth or to runaway collapses over time » ICT Dynamics Reinforcing Feedback loop R D.Meadows
4. 4 ICT Energy Efficiency Positive effect .. and Rebound effect Technical innovation both favoured the exponential growth of the sector and contained its energy demand Data Cost Data Demand ICT Business Growth Investment/ Innovation Capacity Energy Efficiency « Notre métier, c’est d’optimiser la consommation électrique : depuis 2015, on a multiplié notre activité par six, alors que la consommation n’a été augmentée que de 148 % », M. Castagné - Equinix
5. 5 ICT Energy Efficiency What now ? https://www.datacenterfrontier.com/sponsored/article/21438638/stream-data-centers-neither-moores-law-nor-virtualization-can-save-us-now Moore’s Law no longer holding , server virtualization largely complete, PUE improvement has stalled. « Data centers supported exponentially more workloads with relatively tiny increases in power consumption. But the drivers of those gains will no longer save us. Now data center operators will need more watts, more infrastructure, and more people to support more workloads » S.Lawrence and M.Licitra from Stream Data Centers https://journal.uptimeinstitute.com/is-pue-actually-going-up/ The sunset of technical optimization is bound to accelerate short term energy demand
6. 6 ICT Renewable Energy Energy ‘matching’ : what for ? The goal of energy matching through PPA/Certificate is to display ‘market_based’ carbon free energy. This procurement of renewable electricity is having (…) no impact at all on emissions reductions either for the company or for the country. *They do not lead to renewable electricity generating the actual power that is consumed by the corporation (…) *They do not actually lead to increased renewable electricity generation (…) as the majority of renewable electricity being purchased either already exists or is being supported through Government mechanisms (...) UK Climate Change Committee https://ecoinfo.cnrs.fr/2022/07/05/carbon-neutralities-of-ict-companies/ location market Ex : Google 2016-2020 : Consumption multiplied by 2,5 MB emission divided by 1,5 (=1/4 of LB emissions) https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Corporate-Procurement-of-Renewable-Energy-Implications-and- Considerations-Terri-Wills.pdf
7. 7 Renewable Energy Competition for Metals Accelerating decarbonation is an intersectoral competition for metals. Independent KU Leuven study, commissioned by EU industry, echoes IEA warning of supply challenges for several metals needed in Europe’s energy Meeting the European Union’s Green Deal goal of climate neutrality by 2050 will require 35 times more lithium and 7 to 26 times the amount of increasingly scarce rare earth metals compared to Europe’s limited use today. The energy transition will also require far greater annual supplies of (many metals) essential to Europe’s plans for producing the electric vehicles and batteries, renewable wind, solar and hydrogen energy technologies, and the grid infrastructure needed to achieve climate neutrality. According to the study, Europe could face problems around 2030 from global supply shortages for five metals especially: lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earths, and copper. https://eurometaux.eu/media/hxdhepyp/press-release-study-quantifies-metal-supplies-needed- to-reach-eu-s-climate-neutrality-goal.pdf Microsoft signs 900MW PPAs for Ireland, 28% of nation's target for 2030 Google : clean energy projects that we signed over the past few years across Belgium, Denmark, Chile and Finland are now operational – providing important clean energy resources to the grids where we operate Eurométaux-Louvain
8. 8 Towards a ‘True’ ICT Sustainability A paradigm issue Accepting System Theory physical law « no physical system can grow forever in a finite environment (…) A quantity growing exponentially toward a constraint or limit reaches that limit in a surprisingly short time » Agreeing on a common meaning of ‘Digital Sustainability’ Based on earth boundaries recognition and the need to ‘make ICT last’ for future generations Revisiting ICT Business models « The growth-oriented business models of Big Tech companies must be controlled and eventually replaced by business models that are oriented towards the common good » D.Meadows Working on new Governance for a Digital ‘Sufficiency’ Organize consultation with civil society to determine priority uses and methods of deployment D4S. Science in Dialogue https://digitalization-for-sustainability.com The Shift Project
9. 9 Questions ? (and reading for Christmas) IMPACT ENVIRONNEMENTAL DU NUMÉRIQUE : TENDANCES À 5 ANS ET GOUVERNANCE DE LA 5G Mise à jour des scénarios prospectifs des impacts du numérique mondial et propositions pour le déploiement d’une 5G raisonnée NOTE D ANALYSE MARS 2021 Note d’analyse – Impact environnemental du numérique : tendances à 5 ans et gouvernance de la 5G Table des matières L’impact environnemental du numérique : du constat à l’action Infographie bilan Les impacts du numérique mondial – mise à jour des scénarios prospectifs La 5G : des questions qui n’ont toujours pas été traitées A - Consolidation du modèle : l’insoutenabilité du numérique con irmée B - Les dynamiques de croissance du numérique Conclusion - Pour rendre le système numérique européen résilient, il nous faut un plan A - Le système numérique ne deviendra pas soutenable par automatisme B - La 5G : simple brique d’une infrastructure à mettre au service de la résilience 1 - Périmètre de la modélisation 2 - Description du modèle 3 - Consommation énergétique : une croissance problématique 4 - L’empreinte carbone mondiale du numérique 5. Comparaison avec les résultats de 2018, implications et conclusions 1 - L’explosion du tra ic de données 2 - La multiplication des terminaux 5 4 7 8 17 8 9 12 14 16 18 20 26 27 30 31 39 31 34 38 40 40 41 42 1 - L’évolution de nos réseaux : une histoire d’usages 2 - Panorama du débat sur la 5G : politisation mais polarisation 1 - L’augmentation des impacts est inévitable si les usages ne sont pas encadrés 2 - Des usages qui décrivent un certain futur technologique et sociétal 3 - La priorité est de déployer un réseau robuste qui permet l’accès aux services essentiels A - Les questions à instruire B - Les actions à mener C - Les acteurs à mobiliser D - Pour construire un numérique éuropéen soutenable 27 01 02 03 04 05 https://digitalization-for-sustainability.com/digital-reset/