apidays Paris - Are the providers’ sustainability strategies... sustainable?, Arnaud Gueguen, Shift Project

apidays Paris 2022 - APIs the next 10 years: Software, Society, Sovereignty, Sustainability
December 14, 15 & 16, 2022

Are the providers’ sustainability strategies... sustainable ?
Arnaud Gueguen, Sustainability Consultant at DarwinX and Member of Lean ICT and Climate Education Working Group at Shift Project
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Transcript

1. 1
   Arnaud Gueguen
   The Shift Project
   Are the providers’ sustainability strategies... sustainable ?
   Exploring the question through the lens of Systems Theory
   

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2. 2
   ICT Climate Impact
   Exponential GHG emissions
   àWhat is the problem we’re looking at ?
   +6%/year = double every 12 y
   à exponential issue = system growth issue
   ?
   ICT GHG
   MTons CO2e/y
   0
   500
   1000
   1500
   2000
   2500
   3000
   3500
   4000
   2014
   2016
   2018
   2020
   2022
   2024
   2026
   2028
   2030
   “Systems thinking [is] a way of thinking about (…) the forces and
   interrelationships that shape the behavior of systems. This discipline helps us
   to see how to change systems more effectively, and to act more in tune with
   the natural processes of the natural and economic world. ». Peter Senge
   àWhat are these System Theory lens?
   

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3. 3
   Network
   +26%/year
   DC Traffic
   +35%/year
   DC Storage
   +40%/year
   Smartphone
   +9%/year
   3.6 devices/capita
   In the world
   7,6 billions
   IIoT
   +60%/year data
   on mobile network
   DATA DEVICES
   Mobile
   Network
   https://theshiftproject.org/article/impact-environnemental-du-numerique-5g-nouvelle-etude-du-shift/
   Usage
   Effect
   Capacity
   Effect
   « Reinforcing feedback loops are self-enhancing, leading to
   exponential growth or to runaway collapses over time »
   ICT Dynamics
   Reinforcing Feedback loop
   R
   D.Meadows
   

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4. 4
   ICT Energy Efficiency
   Positive effect .. and Rebound effect
   Technical innovation both favoured the exponential
   growth of the sector and contained its energy demand
   Data
   Cost Data
   Demand
   ICT
   Business
   Growth
   Investment/
   Innovation
   Capacity
   Energy
   Efficiency
   « Notre métier, c’est d’optimiser la consommation
   électrique : depuis 2015, on a multiplié notre
   activité par six, alors que la consommation n’a été
   augmentée que de 148 % », M. Castagné - Equinix
   

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5. 5
   ICT Energy Efficiency
   What now ?
   https://www.datacenterfrontier.com/sponsored/article/21438638/stream-data-centers-neither-moores-law-nor-virtualization-can-save-us-now
   Moore’s Law no longer holding , server
   virtualization largely complete, PUE improvement
   has stalled.
   « Data centers supported exponentially more
   workloads with relatively tiny increases in power
   consumption. But the drivers of those gains will
   no longer save us. Now data center operators
   will need more watts, more infrastructure,
   and more people to support more workloads »
   S.Lawrence and M.Licitra from Stream Data
   Centers
   https://journal.uptimeinstitute.com/is-pue-actually-going-up/
   The sunset of technical optimization is
   bound to accelerate short term energy
   demand
   

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6. 6
   ICT Renewable Energy
   Energy ‘matching’ : what for ?
   The goal of energy matching through
   PPA/Certificate is to display ‘market_based’ carbon
   free energy.
   This procurement of renewable electricity is having (…) no
   impact at all on emissions reductions either for the company
   or for the country.
   *They do not lead to renewable electricity generating the
   actual power that is consumed by the corporation (…)
   *They do not actually lead to increased renewable electricity
   generation (…) as the majority of renewable electricity being
   purchased either already exists or is being supported through
   Government mechanisms (...)
   UK Climate Change Committee
   https://ecoinfo.cnrs.fr/2022/07/05/carbon-neutralities-of-ict-companies/
   location
   market
   Ex : Google 2016-2020 :
   Consumption multiplied by 2,5
   MB emission divided by 1,5
   (=1/4 of LB emissions)
   https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Corporate-Procurement-of-Renewable-Energy-Implications-and-
   Considerations-Terri-Wills.pdf
   

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7. 7
   Renewable Energy
   Competition for Metals
   Accelerating decarbonation is an
   intersectoral competition for metals.
   Independent KU Leuven study, commissioned by EU
   industry, echoes IEA warning of supply challenges for
   several metals needed in Europe’s energy
   Meeting the European Union’s Green Deal goal of climate
   neutrality by 2050 will require 35 times more lithium and
   7 to 26 times the amount of increasingly scarce rare earth
   metals compared to Europe’s limited use today.
   The energy transition will also require far greater annual
   supplies of (many metals) essential to Europe’s plans for
   producing the electric vehicles and batteries, renewable
   wind, solar and hydrogen energy technologies, and the grid
   infrastructure needed to achieve climate neutrality.
   According to the study, Europe could face problems
   around 2030 from global supply shortages for five
   metals especially: lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earths, and
   copper.
   https://eurometaux.eu/media/hxdhepyp/press-release-study-quantifies-metal-supplies-needed-
   to-reach-eu-s-climate-neutrality-goal.pdf
   Microsoft signs 900MW PPAs for Ireland, 28% of
   nation's target for 2030
   Google : clean energy projects that we signed over the
   past few years across Belgium, Denmark, Chile and
   Finland are now operational – providing important
   clean energy resources to the grids where we operate
   Eurométaux-Louvain
   

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8. 8
   Towards a ‘True’ ICT Sustainability
   A paradigm issue
   Accepting System Theory physical law
   « no physical system can grow forever in a finite
   environment (…) A quantity growing exponentially
   toward a constraint or limit reaches that limit in a
   surprisingly short time »
   Agreeing on a common meaning of ‘Digital
   Sustainability’
   Based on earth boundaries recognition and the
   need to ‘make ICT last’ for future generations
   Revisiting ICT Business models
   « The growth-oriented business models of Big Tech
   companies must be controlled and eventually
   replaced by business models that are oriented
   towards the common good »
   D.Meadows
   Working on new Governance for a Digital
   ‘Sufficiency’
   Organize consultation with civil society to
   determine priority uses and methods of
   deployment
   D4S. Science in Dialogue
   https://digitalization-for-sustainability.com
   The Shift Project
   

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9. 9
   Questions ?
   (and reading for Christmas)
   IMPACT
   ENVIRONNEMENTAL
   DU NUMÉRIQUE :
   TENDANCES À 5 ANS
   ET GOUVERNANCE
   DE LA 5G
   Mise à jour des scénarios prospectifs
   des impacts du numérique mondial et
   propositions pour le déploiement d’une
   5G raisonnée
   NOTE D ANALYSE
   MARS 2021
   Note d’analyse – Impact environnemental du numérique : tendances à 5 ans et gouvernance de la 5G
   Table des
   matières
   L’impact environnemental
   du numérique : du constat
   à l’action
   Infographie bilan
   Les impacts du numérique
   mondial – mise à jour des
   scénarios prospectifs
   La 5G : des questions qui
   n’ont toujours pas été
   traitées
   A - Consolidation du modèle :
   l’insoutenabilité du numérique
   con irmée
   B - Les dynamiques de croissance
   du numérique
   Conclusion - Pour rendre
   le système numérique
   européen résilient, il nous
   faut un plan
   A - Le système numérique ne
   deviendra pas soutenable par
   automatisme
   B - La 5G : simple brique d’une
   infrastructure à mettre au
   service de la résilience
   1 - Périmètre de la modélisation
   2 - Description du modèle
   3 - Consommation énergétique : une
   croissance problématique
   4 - L’empreinte carbone mondiale du
   numérique
   5. Comparaison avec les résultats de 2018,
   implications et conclusions
   1 - L’explosion du tra ic de données
   2 - La multiplication des terminaux
   5
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   26
   27
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   31
   39
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   34
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   40
   40
   41
   42
   1 - L’évolution de nos réseaux : une histoire
   d’usages
   2 - Panorama du débat sur la 5G :
   politisation mais polarisation
   1 - L’augmentation des impacts est
   inévitable si les usages ne sont pas
   encadrés
   2 - Des usages qui décrivent un certain
   futur technologique et sociétal
   3 - La priorité est de déployer un réseau
   robuste qui permet l’accès aux services
   essentiels
   A - Les questions à instruire
   B - Les actions à mener
   C - Les acteurs à mobiliser
   D - Pour construire un numérique
   éuropéen soutenable
   27
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   03
   04
   05 https://digitalization-for-sustainability.com/digital-reset/
   

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