HOT_Presentation_Blockfyre.pdf

Transcript

1. SENTIVATE REPORT BY BLOCKFYRE | PAGE ‹#› BLOCKFYRE
2. Executive Summary • The driving motivation behind the creation of Holochain is the idea that people should be able to communicate directly and securely without relying on any 3rd party intermediary. • Holochains distributed computing model seems to be taking decentralization to a new level, by switching from the data dependent blockchain to an agent-centric system, enabling for virtually infinite scalability. • The team showes strong sense of ethics in how they position Holochain. • Holochain aims to be a significant upgrade in the current blockchain model. Highlights Risk & Concerns • According to Holochain, the token supply will fluctuate to meet the needs of the network, while this is concerning for investors in the short term, we are relatively positive, that the team will come up with a long term solution. • It seems like the team is lacking a proper hierarchy. While this is not a huge issue at this point and definitely fits their overall company culture, we would like to see more structure within their organization in the future. • Holochain is operating in a highly competitive market which could turn out to become a "winner takes it all" environment. Ticker HOT Price $0,001870 USD Pre-Sale Price $0.0019 USD Market Cap $252 Million Circulating Supply 177.6 Billion HOT Total Supply 177.6 Billion HOT Token Type ERC20 Mainnet No Website holochain.org Holo provides a scalable infrastructure required to host and manage decentralized applications. Holochain is being positioned as an alternative to current blockchain technologies, giving developers a new framework. Overview Source: Blockfyre Research | Holochain Website
3. What problem does it solve? Fundamental Problem: Scalability of Blockchains x • The operating principle of traditional blockchains is based on the storage of data via cryptographic hashes on a distributed network. Each member of that network maintains a global consensus. That means, each member independently verifies the network as a whole and maintains its integrity. • There are weaknesses that come with this current approach. One that has been plaguing blockchain developers and users is scalability issues that are created by requiring each node within the network to verify the entire network. • As the amount of data increases on the blockchain, it becomes increasingly restrictive for transaction throughput on the blockchain. This is why some cryptocurrencies have experienced such long transaction times, and such high network fees. • Another issue holding back widespread adoption of blockchain and dapps is the fact that people don’t adopt technology just because it’s good, most stick to the convenient and comfortable. Source: Blockfyre Research | Holochain Website
4. Holochain’s solution Solution • Holochain is implementing a new method to avoid keeping a global consensus, using an agent system in which each agent is keeping a single fork, that is stored and managed in a limited manner. Unlike other decentralized platforms, the consensus engine utilizes a validating distributed hash table (DHT), requiring only nodes that are actually exchanging data with one another to reach a state of agreement. • So developers could build their own hosted dApp (or hApp) in their own hosted environment on top of Holochain, and unless they wanted to, they didn't ever have to interact with the rest of the shared distributed hash table (DHT), which could be viewed as Holochain's version of a distributed ledger. • Each agent maintains a single blockchain that interacts with that 'agent's unique cryptographic key. An excellent visual illustration would be to imagine a river (the public portion of that Blockchain), being fed by many smaller streams (the individual agent Blockchains). The big question about how many transactions the whole system can process per second becomes meaningless in the case of Holochain, due to its nature. • To drive organic growth of the network, the team has provided hands-on support for developers building with Holochain. x • Due to its agent-centric nature, Holochain could be an excellent fit for applications that require many individual inputs with a sort of limited copy available to everyone, for example: • social media platforms • supply chain management • collective intelligence and knowledge management • peer-to-peer platforms • On the other hand, agent-centric networks are not a good fit for anonymous or private data sets, as each agent publishes to a shared distributed hash table. Holochain is also not optimized for hosting large files or running data positivist-oriented dApps, like most cryptocurrencies. Use cases Source: Blockfyre Research | Holochain Website
5. Product & Vision x Technological Approach • The Distributed Hash Table (DHT) maintains a series of rules to verify the data on each node’s blockchain. Verification occurs on a distributed hash table, instead of making each node keep its own copy of all the data in the entire blockchain. • This means that when a node goes offline, its data is not lost to the public blockchain. Instead, a limited copy is maintained and verified according to the set of rules. • On the FAQ page on the Holochain website, the team compares their system to the way that a living organism stores information in DNA or the way that populations of people store languages. • Whereas data-centric approaches like Hashgraph prioritize reaching consensus across the network, Holochain prioritizes the information contained within the hash-chain of the user and only seeks to achieve consensus between those agents who require it. • Holochain establishes a level of security on each hash-chain through the use of DNA, which acts as an application specific contract. That means, that anything that would go against an applications DNA structure changes the hash of the block, and effectively forks the user into his or her own private malicious chain, unable to affect anyone else. Source: Blockfyre Research | Holochain Website
6. Holochain Network Participants Developers End User Participants x Hosts Infrastructure Provider Application Providers Hosts provide processing power and hosting for distributed applications while earning redeemable credits. Application Providers are responsible for the maintenance and security of apps they publish on the HOLO marketplace. End users can participate to various degrees on hApps depending on the rules established by each respective hApp in the ecosystem The Holo Application Delivery Network manages bridging from the web to Holochain, with the support of Reserve Accounts. Participants who develop hApps for Application Providers within the ecosystem. Source: Blockfyre Research | Holochain Website
7. Market and Growth Potential x Source: Blockfyre Research | Cpmanie's websites • According to Director of Communications, Matthew Schutte, HOLO ultimately aims to become the largest distributed cloud computing company on Earth as a p2p web hosting provider. • Their goal is to create a dev platform like ethereum, but broader in scope and more efficient, in terms of scalability. • Considering the high level of competition from existing players in the cloud hosting space offered by centralized services at highly competitive prices, Holochain's ambition is by no means an easy task. With the cloud computing market projected to reach a value of $411 billion by 2020, the project's ability to capture a small piece of the market of users who value decentralized alternatives to centralized hosting infrastructure is crucial for the long-term value of HOT. • The most pressing threat to HOLO is the ability for established industry giants with consistent revenue and an established user base. With scale comes the ability to compete on price. For the network to compete at any meaningful level with centralized services, an enormous amount of HoloHosts, along with owners of HoloPorts (the premade hosting hardware offered by HOLO for providing hosting services on the network) would be required to reduce hosting costs. Comments Competition decentralized technology Competition mature technology
8. Tokenomics - HOT Token Information Symbol HOT Decimals 18 Contract Address 0x6c6ee5e31d828de241282b9606c8e98ea48526e2 Type ERC20 Network Ethereum Utility Value-stable medium of exchange for the HOLO ecosystem Factors driving HOT’s Value Source: Blockfyre Research | Holochain Greenpaper x Events & Programs Marketing & Communications Support of Developers, Hosts & App Providers Operations Infrastructure Currency Reserves Holochain development Holo development • Market for decentralised and centralised hosting through Ethereum, Amazon Web Services, and others • Demand for distributed computation, personal data ownership, and hosting • Number of hosts, and their prices based on ability to run on cheap hardware • Popularity of apps and usage levels of hosting power on the Holo network • Relative demand from hosts for redeeming out into each reserve currency HOT’s supply is fully circulating, without any vesting periods of the team’s token. Once HOT will be swapped to Holo fuel, the supply will be more „flexible“. The ICO funds a planned to be allocated as shown below. Allocation of ICO funds
9. Tokenomics - Wallet Analysis HOT ownership Comments • Around 177.6 billion HOT are distributed over ~25.900 addresses • 65.4% of HOT’s supply is distributed amongst the TOP 100 holders, which is highly concentrated given the the market cap and many addresses for HOT • However, a big portion belongs to exchange hot wallets, hence the real distribution amongst individuals should be much higher • 26.3% are in Binance’s wallets • After deducting Binance’s ownership, „only“ 69B are distributed amongst the rest of the TOP 100 addresses • However, liquidity is very high given that over 26% are available on Binance as one out of 28 exchanges Source: Blockfyre Research | Etherscan x TOP 100 116B Rest 61B Binance 47B Rest of TOP 100 69B 100 addresses 25.800 addresses
10. Tokenomics - Holo Fuel Factors influencing the supply 1. Supply decreases every time a host with a positive account balance redeems the fuel they earned through hosting. Since Reserve Accounts always have a negative Holo fuel balance, backed by fiat reserves, supply is removed from circulation when a host redeems for an outside currency through the reserve, paying off part of the reserve account’s Holo fuel debt. 2. Hosts have the right to spend below zero, the credit limit being determined algorithmically based on their demonstrated ability to earn back that debt through hosting (i.e., their fuel debt is backed by hosting power). Circulating supply changes depending on how much hosts choose to spend (supply goes up) or pay off (supply goes down) their credit. 3. Holo fuel can be purchased from Reserve Accounts or acquired by trading on regular exchanges. The price of Holo fuel on Reserve Accounts will be determined by an algorithm that takes into account the price at which Hosts are willing to redeem. When people buy fuel from the reserve (e.g., if the price is lower on the reserve than the exchange), the circulating supply will increase. Buying from an exchange will have no impact on supply. Holo Fuel Once the Holo mainnet is fully live, HOT tokens will be swapped to Holo fuel. Holo fuel is designed as a mutual credit currency, meaning transactions happening between two accounts should keep the circulating supply eventually unaffected. As a mutual credit currency, Holo fuel’s supply is determined by the interactions between agents with positive and negative balances. The key factors influencing the supply are: 1. Hosts’ spending behaviors into and out of negative balances (confined by their credit limit) 2. How often people buy fuel from reserve accounts vs. regular exchanges 3. Hosts’ redemption behaviors Therefore, it is only accounts with credit limits, host and reserve accounts, that determine the supply of Holo fuel. When their balances go negative, the circulating supply goes up. When their negative balances move toward positive again, in other words, as their debts are paid off, supply goes down - as long as the negative account is transacting with a positive one. x Source: Blockfyre Research | Holochain Website
11. Exchange listings x Type CEX Trading against BTC, ETH, USD Fees - Withdrawal 870 HOT - Trade (maker) 0.2% - Trade (taker) 0.2% Website fatbtc.com FatBTC • HOT is listed on 28 exchanges • Daily trading volume for HOT is $30.763.904 USD • 62% of this liquidity can be found on Binance & FatBTC Type CEX Trading against ETH, BTC, BNB, USD Fees - Withdrawal 766 HOT - Trade (maker) 0.1% - Trade (taker) 0.1% Website binance.com Binance Comments Source: Blockfyre Research | Coinmarketcap, Exchange websites 34 % 28 % Reported 24h volume (04.06.19) $31M USD
12. Price analysis Source: Blockfyre Research | V-ID website, Coingecko x
13. Roadmap Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q 3 2019 Q4 2019 • Holo Closed Alpha Testnet (available to to Indiegogo alpha and beta backers) • HoloPorts Ship: The devices will be shipped to all Indiegogo backers during the first quarter of 2019. • Holo Open Alpha Testnet: This test version will be available to all purchasers of HoloPorts from Indiegogo. • Holo Beta/Mainnet: This will be the official Mainnet and this is planned before the end of 2019. • Holo Token/Fuel Swap: All the tokens (HOT) will be swapped at a rate of 1:1 shortly after Holo Beta release. x • Holo Full Feature Testnet: This will be the released with a Testnet of Holo fuel. Source: Blockfyre Research | Holochain Website Comments • There is no updated official roadmap online. • The latest roadmap initially had the Alpha 1 scheduled for 2018. • The shipment of HoloPorts to investors has been postponed until the beginning of 2019, from the original Q4 2018 milestone. • In our opinion, delaying the launch of a large platform like Holochain isn't unusual, but it shows the risks involved with investing in ambitious large scale platforms. Further delaying launch dates could potentially slow down current momentum and hurt the projects public image.
14. Team Comments • Both founders have been in the alternative currency space longer than most teams in the crypto space. • According to their website, the Team consists of 14 core members (Holochain), with a total of 41 people being involved in the project (Holo). • One thing we noticed while going through everyone’s profile is a strong sense of ethics in how they position Holochain. It’s very unconventional and unique compared to other projects. • The team has decided to refrain from any marketing activities. However, they are incredibly communicative in their telegram, open and transparent, which helped them to build an active community. • The founders have been working on this project for years. Arthur Brock Eric Harris-Braun • Co-founder & Executive Engineer • Co-founded MetaCurrency • Received a B.S. in Computer Science from Yale University • Contract coder since 1984, • Full time programmer since 1988, • Designer of peer-to-peer communication applications (glassbead.com) • Full-stack web developer, as well as having experience in system design • Co-founder & Chief Architect • Serial entrepreneur and consultant building incentive systems for a variety of applications • Contract coder since 1984, • Working with AI systems and as an online alternative currency system designer since 2001 • Founder and Systems Architect of the Metacurrency Project, which he founded in 2008 • Between 2003 – 2007, Arthur worked on another currency-related project, Targeted Currencies Network, where he served as CTO and Lead Currency Designer x Source: Blockfyre Research | Holochain Website
15. Holochain Rating Product 11/15 Community 10/12 Traction 6/9 Trading 8/12 Network 11/15 Whitepaper Competition Speed Value Roadmap Website Communication Advisors Influencers Development Status Number of txs Partnerships Profit (1 month) Profit (1 year) Exchanges Token distribution Google Trends News Mentions Twitter Follower Telegram Follower Reddit Follower Total score: 46 / 63 = very good investment opportunity long-term x
16. Technical Analysis (June 12 2019) x Bullish scenario • When we seen price trend downwards earlier this year we seen the volume slowly diminish alongside it. Eventually when volume looked to bottom out, the trend began to reverse. • We look to be seeing something similar on a smaller scale right now as volume edges closer to a bottom and sellers look to become exhausted. Although we have closed below a key level it would be a perfect scenario for a fake out before reclaiming the level and making some bullish moves back towards 29sat resistance. • Right now price is in a very indecisive area after an expected pull back due to a 2x move in the month of May. I think it is wise for traders and investors alike to wait for confirmation of where Holo is heading next. There is definitely a counter argument for both buying or selling right now.
17. Technical Analysis (June 12 2019) x Bearish scenario • The bearish outlook would be that this isn’t a fake out and we are genuinely heading lower. The dotted line (20sats) represents a potential level of support but I am not convinced in the strength of the level and see 15sats as the strongest level of support. • As mentioned earlier, with sell volume diminishing I am not convinced that we see 15sats anytime soon but it’s a possibility to consider. • This is my unprofessional opinion of $HOT and should not be considered as financial advice. @crypt_malone
18. General opinion High upside potential Long-term investment Risk & Concerns x It’s not sure if Holochain will be successful, but the team behind it came up with an innovative and unique approach, the platform is ready to be used, and developers can already start building applications on it. Holochain has been in the works ever since the original Bitcoin whitepaper. Technology has evolved and adjusted to the needs of decentralized solutions today, but the experience and research the team has gained over this long period of time should not be underestimated. Assuming that decentralized technology is the future, the upside potential for platforms like Holochain is enormous. A broad variety of applications can be created on Holochain, pretty much any app you can imagine that is running on the “regular” internet of today, could run on the Holochain network. Beyond standing apart from decentralized cloud computing, it’s taking on Blockchain itself. If it succeeds, Holochain will be a cheaper and faster alternative to traditional Blockchains. At this point, enterprise partnerships and reliable execution will be necessary to take the project mainstream and achieve the vision of mass adoption of Holochain. Especially given the high level of competition from both players in the crypto space and traditional blue chip enterprises. This uncertainty makes HOT a high-risk investment in our view, although the fundamentals are strong, the challenges the team is facing, are enormous. If we take into account the amount of time it took the team to reach a certain level of product readiness and considering the current state of the crypto market and adoption of decentralized technology, it could take a long time until all these things come to fruition. Conclusion
19. Blockfyre Jonathan Habicht Simon Dedic Alexander Schätz Disclaimer We are currently holding HOT We have been in contact with the team If you like this review, dont forget to share it! Follow Blockfyre x Blockfyre