Frike 2014 ASB Prediction (Rest of Season)

Weeks 1- 15 in books.
Modeled likely performance rest of the year (weeks 16-21) for all teams

Transcript

1. Frike 2014 Rest of Regular Season Projection Eric Pizzi
2. 2014 Frike Season, Actual Standings Weeks 1-15 Team Div W L T DivW DivL DivT PF Back PA Clutch Sundays Fella 11 4 0 8 1 0 4,301.5 251.8 3,938.3 Heavy Waters Fella 10 5 0 6 3 0 4,217.0 336.3 3,979.5 La Flama Blanca Fella 9 6 0 6 3 0 4,205.3 348.0 4,034.2 Carcosa Kings Fella 8 7 0 4 5 0 3,956.7 596.7 3,943.2 BringEm Young Fella 7 8 0 2 7 0 4,322.7 230.7 4,318.2 BYE Fella 2 13 0 1 8 0 3,457.0 1,096.3 4,216.5 SHIT BATHE Guy 9 6 0 7 2 0 4,553.3 0.0 4,292.2 St. Anky Friars Guy 9 6 0 6 3 0 4,511.5 41.8 4,164.5 Thunder Buddies Guy 8 7 0 5 4 0 4,466.5 86.8 4,307.8 Electric Blue Guy 8 7 0 4 5 0 4,202.7 350.7 4,015.2 The Steelhead Guy 6 9 0 4 5 0 3,914.5 638.8 4,053.5 Black Midas. Guy 3 12 0 1 8 0 3,609.2 944.2 4,454.8 Key Actual Values Projected Values
3. 2014 Frike Season, Forecast Performance Weeks 16-21 Team Div W L T DivW DivL DivT PF Back PA Heavy Waters Fella 4.2 1.7 0.1 4.2 1.7 0.1 1,538.3 163.3 1,405.0 BringEm Young Fella 4.0 1.9 0.1 4.0 1.9 0.1 1,533.5 168.1 1,415.6 Carcosa Kings Fella 3.9 2.0 0.1 3.9 2.0 0.1 1,532.1 169.5 1,416.0 Clutch Sundays Fella 3.1 2.9 0.1 3.1 2.9 0.1 1,474.8 226.8 1,426.4 La Flama Blanca Fella 2.7 3.3 0.0 2.7 3.3 0.0 1,391.8 309.8 1,354.1 BYE Fella 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 1,023.5 678.1 1,476.9 SHIT BATHE Guy 4.8 1.1 0.1 4.8 1.1 0.1 1,701.6 0.0 1,532.0 St. Anky Friars Guy 4.4 1.5 0.1 4.4 1.5 0.1 1,664.0 37.6 1,545.5 Electric Blue Guy 3.0 2.9 0.1 3.0 2.9 0.1 1,523.9 177.7 1,529.3 Thunder Buddies Guy 2.9 3.1 0.1 2.9 3.1 0.1 1,496.9 204.7 1,518.4 The Steelhead Guy 2.0 3.9 0.1 2.0 3.9 0.1 1,467.6 234.0 1,547.4 Black Midas Guy 0.7 5.2 0.0 0.7 5.2 0.0 1,376.9 324.7 1,558.4 Key Actual Values Projected Values
4. 2014 Frike Season Full Season Actual + Forecast Key Actual Values Projected Values Team Div W L T DivW DivL DivT PF Back PA Heavy Waters Fella 14.2 6.7 0.1 10.2 4.7 0.1 5,755 500 5,385 Clutch Sundays Fella 14.1 6.9 0.1 11.1 3.9 0.1 5,776 479 5,365 Carcosa Kings Fella 11.9 9 0.1 7.9 7 0.1 5,489 766 5,359 La Flama Blanca Fella 11.7 9.3 0 8.7 6.3 0 5,597 658 5,388 BringEm Young Fella 11 9.9 0.1 6 8.9 0.1 5,856 399 5,734 BYE Fella 2 19 0 1 14 0 4,481 1,774 5,693 SHIT BATHE Guy 13.8 7.1 0.1 11.8 3.1 0.1 6,255 0 5,824 St. Anky Friars Guy 13.4 7.5 0.1 10.4 4.5 0.1 6,176 79 5,710 Electric Blue Guy 11 9.9 0.1 7 7.9 0.1 5,727 528 5,545 Thunder Buddies Guy 10.9 10.1 0.1 7.9 7.1 0.1 5,963 292 5,826 The Steelhead Guy 8 12.9 0.1 6 8.9 0.1 5,382 873 5,601 Black Midas Guy 3.7 17.2 0 1.7 13.2 0 4,986 1,269 6,013
5. Team x Team Observations Team: Heavy Waters . Division: Fella Remaining Schedule Oppenent Oppenent Score Your Score Win W L Week 16 Clutch Sundays 245.8 256.1 W 66% 32% Week 17 Clutch Sundays 246.0 256.4 W 66% 33% Week 18 BringEm Young 255.4 256.5 W 50% 48% Week 19 La Flama Blanca 231.9 256.5 W 86% 13% Week 20 Carcosa Kings 255.4 256.2 W 52% 46% Week 21 BYE 170.4 256.5 W 100% 0% Finish Position Overall Record Division Record PF | PA Back Playoffs Heavy Waters 14.2 - 6.7 - 0.1 10.2 - 4.7 - 0.1 5755.3 | 5384.5 499.6 Yes Clutch Sundays 14.1 - 6.9 - 0.1 11.1 - 3.9 - 0.1 5776.3 | 5364.7 478.6 Yes Carcosa Kings 11.9 - 9 - 0.1 7.9 - 7 - 0.1 5488.8 | 5359.2 766.1 Yes La Flama Blanca 11.7 - 9.3 - 0 8.7 - 6.3 - 0 5597.1 | 5388.3 657.8 No BringEm Young 11 - 9.9 - 0.1 6 - 8.9 - 0.1 5856.2 | 5733.8 398.7 No BYE 2 - 19 - 0 1 - 14 - 0 4480.5 | 5693.4 1774.4 No Total Wins Probability Divisional Finish Probability 0.3% 5.0% 18.5% 35.3% 31.4% 9.5% 11 12 13 14 15 16 Probable Regular Season Win Totals (21 Game ) 50.9% 40.5% 6.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probable Divisional Finish Probability-% Key Actual Values Projected Values
6. Team x Team Observations Team: Clutch Sundays . Division: Fella Remaining Schedule Oppenent Oppenent Score Your Score Win W L Week 16 Heavy Waters 256.1 245.8 L 32% 66% Week 17 Heavy Waters 256.4 246.0 L 33% 66% Week 18 BYE 170.8 245.7 W 100% 0% Week 19 Carcosa Kings 255.5 245.7 L 34% 65% Week 20 BringEm Young 255.7 245.7 L 34% 64% Week 21 La Flama Blanca 231.8 245.9 W 72% 26% Finish Position Overall Record Division Record PF | PA Back Playoffs Heavy Waters 14.2 - 6.7 - 0.1 10.2 - 4.7 - 0.1 5755.3 | 5384.5 499.6 Yes Clutch Sundays 14.1 - 6.9 - 0.1 11.1 - 3.9 - 0.1 5776.3 | 5364.7 478.6 Yes Carcosa Kings 11.9 - 9 - 0.1 7.9 - 7 - 0.1 5488.8 | 5359.2 766.1 Yes La Flama Blanca 11.7 - 9.3 - 0 8.7 - 6.3 - 0 5597.1 | 5388.3 657.8 No BringEm Young 11 - 9.9 - 0.1 6 - 8.9 - 0.1 5856.2 | 5733.8 398.7 No BYE 2 - 19 - 0 1 - 14 - 0 4480.5 | 5693.4 1774.4 No Total Wins Probability Divisional Finish Probability 5.5% 25.5% 37.0% 23.7% 7.5% 1.0% 12 13 14 15 16 17 Probable Regular Season Win Totals (21 Game ) 47.9% 43.4% 7.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probable Divisional Finish Probability-% Key Actual Values Projected Values
7. Team x Team Observations Team: Carcosa Kings . Division: Fella Remaining Schedule Oppenent Oppenent Score Your Score Win W L Week 16 BringEm Young 255.4 255.4 L 48% 50% Week 17 BYE 170.9 255.1 W 100% 0% Week 18 La Flama Blanca 232.0 255.2 W 83% 16% Week 19 Clutch Sundays 245.7 255.5 W 65% 34% Week 20 Heavy Waters 256.2 255.4 L 46% 52% Week 21 BringEm Young 255.7 255.5 L 49% 49% Finish Position Overall Record Division Record PF | PA Back Playoffs Heavy Waters 14.2 - 6.7 - 0.1 10.2 - 4.7 - 0.1 5755.3 | 5384.5 499.6 Yes Clutch Sundays 14.1 - 6.9 - 0.1 11.1 - 3.9 - 0.1 5776.3 | 5364.7 478.6 Yes Carcosa Kings 11.9 - 9 - 0.1 7.9 - 7 - 0.1 5488.8 | 5359.2 766.1 Yes La Flama Blanca 11.7 - 9.3 - 0 8.7 - 6.3 - 0 5597.1 | 5388.3 657.8 No BringEm Young 11 - 9.9 - 0.1 6 - 8.9 - 0.1 5856.2 | 5733.8 398.7 No BYE 2 - 19 - 0 1 - 14 - 0 4480.5 | 5693.4 1774.4 No Total Wins Probability Divisional Finish Probability 0.9% 8.5% 24.4% 36.2% 24.3% 5.7% 9 10 11 12 13 14 Probable Regular Season Win Totals (21 Game ) 0.4% 6.2% 34.1% 25.1% 34.3% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probable Divisional Finish Probability-% Key Actual Values Projected Values
8. Team x Team Observations Team: Flama Blanca . Division: Fella Remaining Schedule Oppenent Oppenent Score Your Score Win W L Week 16 BYE 170.6 232.0 W 100% 0% Week 17 BringEm Young 255.6 232.0 L 11% 88% Week 18 Carcosa Kings 255.2 232.0 L 16% 83% Week 19 Heavy Waters 256.5 231.9 L 13% 86% Week 20 BYE 170.3 232.0 W 100% 0% Week 21 Clutch Sundays 245.9 231.8 L 26% 72% Finish Position Overall Record Division Record PF | PA Back Playoffs Heavy Waters 14.2 - 6.7 - 0.1 10.2 - 4.7 - 0.1 5755.3 | 5384.5 499.6 Yes Clutch Sundays 14.1 - 6.9 - 0.1 11.1 - 3.9 - 0.1 5776.3 | 5364.7 478.6 Yes Carcosa Kings 11.9 - 9 - 0.1 7.9 - 7 - 0.1 5488.8 | 5359.2 766.1 Yes La Flama Blanca 11.7 - 9.3 - 0 8.7 - 6.3 - 0 5597.1 | 5388.3 657.8 No BringEm Young 11 - 9.9 - 0.1 6 - 8.9 - 0.1 5856.2 | 5733.8 398.7 No BYE 2 - 19 - 0 1 - 14 - 0 4480.5 | 5693.4 1774.4 No Total Wins Probability Divisional Finish Probability 48.2% 39.0% 11.5% 1.3% 0.1% 11 12 13 14 15 Probable Regular Season Win Totals (21 Game ) 0.3% 3.3% 26.5% 46.8% 23.1% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probable Divisional Finish Probability-% Key Actual Values Projected Values
9. Team x Team Observations Team: BringEm Young . Division: Fella Remaining Schedule Oppenent Oppenent Score Your Score Win W L Week 16 Carcosa Kings 255.4 255.4 W 50% 48% Week 17 La Flama Blanca 232.0 255.6 W 88% 11% Week 18 Heavy Waters 256.5 255.4 L 48% 50% Week 19 BYE 170.5 255.6 W 100% 0% Week 20 Clutch Sundays 245.7 255.7 W 64% 34% Week 21 Carcosa Kings 255.5 255.7 W 49% 49% Finish Position Overall Record Division Record PF | PA Back Playoffs Heavy Waters 14.2 - 6.7 - 0.1 10.2 - 4.7 - 0.1 5755.3 | 5384.5 499.6 Yes Clutch Sundays 14.1 - 6.9 - 0.1 11.1 - 3.9 - 0.1 5776.3 | 5364.7 478.6 Yes Carcosa Kings 11.9 - 9 - 0.1 7.9 - 7 - 0.1 5488.8 | 5359.2 766.1 Yes La Flama Blanca 11.7 - 9.3 - 0 8.7 - 6.3 - 0 5597.1 | 5388.3 657.8 No BringEm Young 11 - 9.9 - 0.1 6 - 8.9 - 0.1 5856.2 | 5733.8 398.7 No BYE 2 - 19 - 0 1 - 14 - 0 4480.5 | 5693.4 1774.4 No Total Wins Probability Divisional Finish Probability 0.6% 6.9% 24.9% 34.8% 25.8% 7.1% 8 9 10 11 12 13 Probable Regular Season Win Totals (21 Game ) 0.5% 6.7% 25.2% 25.3% 42.3% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probable Divisional Finish Probability-% Key Actual Values Projected Values
10. Team x Team Observations Team: BYE . Division: Fella Remaining Schedule Oppenent Oppenent Score Your Score Win W L Week 16 La Flama Blanca 232.0 170.6 L 0% 100% Week 17 Carcosa Kings 255.1 170.9 L 0% 100% Week 18 Clutch Sundays 245.7 170.8 L 0% 100% Week 19 BringEm Young 255.6 170.5 L 0% 100% Week 20 La Flama Blanca 232.0 170.3 L 0% 100% Week 21 Heavy Waters 256.5 170.4 L 0% 100% Finish Position Overall Record Division Record PF | PA Back Playoffs Heavy Waters 14.2 - 6.7 - 0.1 10.2 - 4.7 - 0.1 5755.3 | 5384.5 499.6 Yes Clutch Sundays 14.1 - 6.9 - 0.1 11.1 - 3.9 - 0.1 5776.3 | 5364.7 478.6 Yes Carcosa Kings 11.9 - 9 - 0.1 7.9 - 7 - 0.1 5488.8 | 5359.2 766.1 Yes La Flama Blanca 11.7 - 9.3 - 0 8.7 - 6.3 - 0 5597.1 | 5388.3 657.8 No BringEm Young 11 - 9.9 - 0.1 6 - 8.9 - 0.1 5856.2 | 5733.8 398.7 No BYE 2 - 19 - 0 1 - 14 - 0 4480.5 | 5693.4 1774.4 No Total Wins Probability Divisional Finish Probability 100.0% 0.0% 2 3 Probable Regular Season Win Totals (21 Game ) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probable Divisional Finish Probability-% Key Actual Values Projected Values
11. Team x Team Observations Team: Shit Bathe. Division: Guy Remaining Schedule Oppenent Oppenent Score Your Score Win W L Week 16 St. Anky Friars 277.3 283.6 W 56% 43% Week 17 Thunder Buddies 249.5 283.2 W 88% 12% Week 18 Electric Blue 253.9 283.5 W 88% 11% Week 19 Black Midas 229.5 283.5 W 100% 0% Week 20 St. Anky Friars 277.3 284.2 W 56% 42% Week 21 The Steelhead 244.6 283.7 W 95% 5% Finish Position Overall Record Division Record PF | PA Back Playoffs SHIT BATHE 13.8 - 7.1 - 0.1 11.8 - 3.1 - 0.1 6254.9 | 5824.2 0 Yes St. Anky Friars 13.4 - 7.5 - 0.1 10.4 - 4.5 - 0.1 6175.5 | 5710 79.4 Yes Electric Blue 11 - 9.9 - 0.1 7 - 7.9 - 0.1 5726.6 | 5544.5 528.3 Yes Thunder Buddies 10.9 - 10.1 - 0.1 7.9 - 7.1 - 0.1 5963.4 | 5826.2 291.5 No The Steelhead 8 - 12.9 - 0.1 6 - 8.9 - 0.1 5382.1 | 5600.9 872.8 No Black Midas 3.7 - 17.2 - 0 1.7 - 13.2 - 0 4986.1 | 6013.2 1268.8 No Total Wins Probability Divisional Finish Probability 0.0% 0.5% 6.1% 26.7% 44.2% 22.6% 10 11 12 13 14 15 Probable Regular Season Win Totals (21 Game ) 70.2% 28.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probable Divisional Finish Probability-% Key Actual Values Projected Values
12. Team x Team Observations Team: St. Anky Friars. Division: Guy Remaining Schedule Oppenent Oppenent Score Your Score Win W L Week 16 SHIT BATHE 283.6 277.3 L 43% 56% Week 17 Black Midas 229.3 277.1 W 98% 1% Week 18 Thunder Buddies 249.6 277.5 W 85% 14% Week 19 The Steelhead 244.7 277.3 W 91% 9% Week 20 SHIT BATHE 284.2 277.3 L 42% 56% Week 21 Electric Blue 254.1 277.6 W 83% 16% Finish Position Overall Record Division Record PF | PA Back Playoffs SHIT BATHE 13.8 - 7.1 - 0.1 11.8 - 3.1 - 0.1 6254.9 | 5824.2 0 Yes St. Anky Friars 13.4 - 7.5 - 0.1 10.4 - 4.5 - 0.1 6175.5 | 5710 79.4 Yes Electric Blue 11 - 9.9 - 0.1 7 - 7.9 - 0.1 5726.6 | 5544.5 528.3 Yes Thunder Buddies 10.9 - 10.1 - 0.1 7.9 - 7.1 - 0.1 5963.4 | 5826.2 291.5 No The Steelhead 8 - 12.9 - 0.1 6 - 8.9 - 0.1 5382.1 | 5600.9 872.8 No Black Midas 3.7 - 17.2 - 0 1.7 - 13.2 - 0 4986.1 | 6013.2 1268.8 No Total Wins Probability Divisional Finish Probability 0.1% 1.8% 13.0% 38.3% 35.2% 11.7% 10 11 12 13 14 15 Probable Regular Season Win Totals (21 Game ) 29.4% 66.6% 3.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probable Divisional Finish Probability-% Key Actual Values Projected Values
13. Team x Team Observations Team: Electric Blue. Division: Guy Remaining Schedule Oppenent Oppenent Score Your Score Win W L Week 16 The Steelhead 244.4 253.9 W 64% 35% Week 17 The Steelhead 244.6 253.8 W 63% 35% Week 18 SHIT BATHE 283.5 253.9 L 11% 88% Week 19 Thunder Buddies 249.5 254.0 W 55% 43% Week 20 Black Midas 229.7 254.2 W 89% 10% Week 21 St. Anky Friars 277.6 254.1 L 16% 83% Finish Position Overall Record Division Record PF | PA Back Playoffs SHIT BATHE 13.8 - 7.1 - 0.1 11.8 - 3.1 - 0.1 6254.9 | 5824.2 0 Yes St. Anky Friars 13.4 - 7.5 - 0.1 10.4 - 4.5 - 0.1 6175.5 | 5710 79.4 Yes Electric Blue 11 - 9.9 - 0.1 7 - 7.9 - 0.1 5726.6 | 5544.5 528.3 Yes Thunder Buddies 10.9 - 10.1 - 0.1 7.9 - 7.1 - 0.1 5963.4 | 5826.2 291.5 No The Steelhead 8 - 12.9 - 0.1 6 - 8.9 - 0.1 5382.1 | 5600.9 872.8 No Black Midas 3.7 - 17.2 - 0 1.7 - 13.2 - 0 4986.1 | 6013.2 1268.8 No Total Wins Probability Divisional Finish Probability 0.4% 6.4% 23.9% 38.0% 25.8% 5.1% 8 9 10 11 12 13 Probable Regular Season Win Totals (21 Game ) 0.3% 2.8% 39.0% 55.7% 2.3% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probable Divisional Finish Probability-% Key Actual Values Projected Values
14. Team x Team Observations Team: Thunder Buddies. Division: Guy Remaining Schedule Oppenent Oppenent Score Your Score Win W L Week 16 Black Midas 229.4 249.7 W 82% 17% Week 17 SHIT BATHE 283.2 249.5 L 12% 88% Week 18 St. Anky Friars 277.5 249.6 L 14% 85% Week 19 Electric Blue 254.0 249.5 L 43% 55% Week 20 The Steelhead 244.7 249.4 W 56% 43% Week 21 Black Midas 229.6 249.2 W 81% 18% Finish Position Overall Record Division Record PF | PA Back Playoffs SHIT BATHE 13.8 - 7.1 - 0.1 11.8 - 3.1 - 0.1 6254.9 | 5824.2 0 Yes St. Anky Friars 13.4 - 7.5 - 0.1 10.4 - 4.5 - 0.1 6175.5 | 5710 79.4 Yes Electric Blue 11 - 9.9 - 0.1 7 - 7.9 - 0.1 5726.6 | 5544.5 528.3 Yes Thunder Buddies 10.9 - 10.1 - 0.1 7.9 - 7.1 - 0.1 5963.4 | 5826.2 291.5 No The Steelhead 8 - 12.9 - 0.1 6 - 8.9 - 0.1 5382.1 | 5600.9 872.8 No Black Midas 3.7 - 17.2 - 0 1.7 - 13.2 - 0 4986.1 | 6013.2 1268.8 No Total Wins Probability Divisional Finish Probability 0.7% 7.4% 26.7% 39.3% 22.0% 3.7% 8 9 10 11 12 13 Probable Regular Season Win Totals (21 Game ) 0.2% 2.5% 55.4% 40.8% 1.2% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probable Divisional Finish Probability-% Key Actual Values Projected Values
15. Team x Team Observations Team: The Seelhead. Division: Guy Remaining Schedule Oppenent Oppenent Score Your Score Win W L Week 16 Electric Blue 253.9 244.4 L 35% 64% Week 17 Electric Blue 253.8 244.6 L 35% 63% Week 18 Black Midas 229.3 244.6 W 74% 25% Week 19 St. Anky Friars 277.3 244.7 L 9% 91% Week 20 Thunder Buddies 249.4 244.7 L 43% 56% Week 21 SHIT BATHE 283.7 244.6 L 5% 95% Finish Position Overall Record Division Record PF | PA Back Playoffs SHIT BATHE 13.8 - 7.1 - 0.1 11.8 - 3.1 - 0.1 6254.9 | 5824.2 0 Yes St. Anky Friars 13.4 - 7.5 - 0.1 10.4 - 4.5 - 0.1 6175.5 | 5710 79.4 Yes Electric Blue 11 - 9.9 - 0.1 7 - 7.9 - 0.1 5726.6 | 5544.5 528.3 Yes Thunder Buddies 10.9 - 10.1 - 0.1 7.9 - 7.1 - 0.1 5963.4 | 5826.2 291.5 No The Steelhead 8 - 12.9 - 0.1 6 - 8.9 - 0.1 5382.1 | 5600.9 872.8 No Black Midas 3.7 - 17.2 - 0 1.7 - 13.2 - 0 4986.1 | 6013.2 1268.8 No Total Wins Probability Divisional Finish Probability 5.7% 26.0% 38.4% 23.2% 6.2% 0.5% 6 7 8 9 10 11 Probable Regular Season Win Totals (21 Game ) 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 3.2% 96.5% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probable Divisional Finish Probability-% Key Actual Values Projected Values
16. Team x Team Observations Team: Black Midas. Division: Guy Remaining Schedule Oppenent Oppenent Score Your Score Win W L Week 16 Thunder Buddies 249.7 229.4 L 17% 82% Week 17 St. Anky Friars 277.1 229.3 L 1% 98% Week 18 The Steelhead 244.6 229.3 L 25% 74% Week 19 SHIT BATHE 283.5 229.5 L 0% 100% Week 20 Electric Blue 254.2 229.7 L 10% 89% Week 21 Thunder Buddies 249.2 229.6 L 18% 81% Finish Position Overall Record Division Record PF | PA Back Playoffs SHIT BATHE 13.8 - 7.1 - 0.1 11.8 - 3.1 - 0.1 6254.9 | 5824.2 0 Yes St. Anky Friars 13.4 - 7.5 - 0.1 10.4 - 4.5 - 0.1 6175.5 | 5710 79.4 Yes Electric Blue 11 - 9.9 - 0.1 7 - 7.9 - 0.1 5726.6 | 5544.5 528.3 Yes Thunder Buddies 10.9 - 10.1 - 0.1 7.9 - 7.1 - 0.1 5963.4 | 5826.2 291.5 No The Steelhead 8 - 12.9 - 0.1 6 - 8.9 - 0.1 5382.1 | 5600.9 872.8 No Black Midas 3.7 - 17.2 - 0 1.7 - 13.2 - 0 4986.1 | 6013.2 1268.8 No Total Wins Probability Divisional Finish Probability 44.9% 40.1% 13.2% 1.7% 0.1% 3 4 5 6 7 Probable Regular Season Win Totals (21 Game ) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probable Divisional Finish Probability-% Key Actual Values Projected Values
17. FORECAST METHODOLOGY
18. Forecast Observation and Methodology Performance “Points For” Weeks 1-15 Input Engine Results Apply previous “Point For” performance (+/- 20%) to future weeks, uniformly. e.g. all teams in week 16, perform on their 4 week average 1% 2% 4% 6% 7% 8% 9% 11% 15% 12% 10% 8% 4% 3% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 # Weeks Observed Apply scores by team to actual H2H matchups for the remaining schedule. Capture: W, L, PF, PA, etc. Repeat this model 10,000 iterations Capture aggregate results based on these inputs Rank teams using our tiebreaks (Ws, PF, etc.) Assigned Probability-% of Cumulative Weekly Score Randomly Selected