Green IO Conference at apidays Paris 2024 - Meeting or Missing Targets? Data Centres, Hardware, AI and Sustainability, Deborah Andrews, London South Bank University

Meeting or Missing Targets? Data Centres, Hardware, AI and Sustainability
Deborah Andrews, Professor at London South Bank University

Green IO Conference
apidays Paris 2024 - The Future API Stack for Mass Innovation
December 3 - 5, 2024

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Transcript

1. Meeting or missing targets? Data centres, hardware, AI and sustainability Deborah Andrews Professor of Design for Sustainability & Circularity Division of Mechanical Engineering & Design, School of Engineering London South Bank University Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
2. The Data Centre Industry in numbers Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
3. The Data Centre Industry in numbers Global value 2023 - $219bn; 2024 - $243bn; 2032 - $585bn (Fortune Business Insights, 2024) Revise figures due to rapid growth of AI? Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
4. Finite resources Critical Short lifetimes Stockpiling Procurement barriers Growing e-waste Low recycling rates Underdeveloped infrastructure Planned obsolescence Reuse/refurbishment - difficult by design TAKE MAKE USE DISPOSE Speed of sectoral development & emphasis on service provision…. Linear model of consumption Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
5. Finite resources Critical Short lifetimes Stockpiling Procurement barriers Growing e-waste Low recycling rates Underdeveloped infrastructure Planned obsolescence Reuse/refurbishment - difficult by design TAKE MAKE USE DISPOSE Speed of sectoral development & emphasis on service provision…. Linear model of consumption Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Is this sustainable? What are the real impacts of DCI / digital tech?
6. Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 What targets? The right targets? The right metrics?
7. UK data centre – 60-year building life - 2015 data inc. grid mix Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Life cycle assessment of a data centre – operational vs embodied impact
8. Operational impact – ~75% over life in UK / 2015 Embodied impact 15% embodied environmental impact derives from building and facilities equipment refresh rates – M&E - 20 years batteries - 10 years servers - 1-5 years 85% derives from IT equipment Whitehead, B., Andrews, D. & Shah, A. The life cycle assessment of a UK data centre. Int J Life Cycle Assess 20, 332–349 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-014-0838-7 operational embodied IT embodied bullding Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Life cycle assessment of a data centre – hotspots
9. Highest embodied impact of DC – IT equipment / servers Short life and embodied materials Data centre equipment in use / discarded – total unknown Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Life cycle assessment of a data centre – IT hotspots - servers
10. The right targets? The right metrics? Carbon Tunnel Vision Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
11. Comprehensive LCA 1. Climate change 2. Resource depletion (fresh water) 3. Human toxicity 4. Abiotic resource depletion 5. Fossil fuel resource depletion 6. Eutrophication 7. Acidification – earth and oceans 8. Ozone layer depletion 9. Ionizing radiation 10. Particulate matter 11. Land and land use change The right targets? The right metrics? Carbon Tunnel Vision Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
12. Carbon assessment – inaccurate / misleading LCA results – indicate much higher embodied impact Carbon assessment vs Life Cycle Assessment 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 typical carbon assessment typical carbon assessment CEDaCI full LCA CEDaCI full LCA Environmental impact of servers operational impact embodied impact 2004 server 2004 server Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
13. Carbon assessment – inaccurate / misleading LCA results – indicate much higher embodied impact Carbon assessment vs Life Cycle Assessment 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 typical carbon assessment typical carbon assessment CEDaCI full LCA CEDaCI full LCA Environmental impact of servers operational impact embodied impact 2004 server 2004 server 2017 server 2017 server Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
14. The right targets? The right metrics? Criticality – materials high technical and economic importance Geopolitical location Unmined reserves Current recycling rates - ~1% Substitution? Servers – 27 elements - 12 CRM Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
15. Waste Management Hierarchy Linear Economy Circular Economy Circular Economy - not just recycling Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
16. CEDaCI - A Circular Economy for the Data Centre Industry
17. CEDaCI - Whole Systems Thinking • unique, interdisciplinary, multi-output initiative • 20+ partners in UK, FR, DE, NL, IE, BE, LU in order to • reduce e-waste • increase resource efficiency – materials/energy • prevent supply chain problems • secure uninterrupted DC operation & service Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
18. Primary source data collection – reverse engineering = robust data Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
19. CDCC - Circular Data Centre Compass Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
20. Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Compare impact of product upgrade / life extension
21. Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Compare environmental impact of end-of-life scenarios
22. Product life extension – reuse / remanufacture - REACTIVE End-of-life – recycling - REACTIVE Beginning of life - Design for circularity - PROACTIVE Whole Systems Approach – Life Cycle Thinking Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
23. Product life extension – reuse / remanufacture - REACTIVE End-of-life – recycling - REACTIVE Beginning of life - Design for circularity - PROACTIVE Whole Systems Approach – Life Cycle Thinking Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
24. Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Eco-design Evaluator consolidates EU Ecodesign Criteria in one place – easy for designers to follow ‘Easy to understand’ results
25. Modular platform format Consistent component configuration Easy / rapid disassembly Compared with 2012 enterprise server: Reduced overall mass by 33% Reduced number of components by 50%+ Reduced mass of plastics by 90% Open access publication on OCP Platform https://www.open compute.org/about CEDaCI circular server – prototype Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
26. 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 mPt Comparing the embodied impacts of a Standard Server and Prototype Circular Server (per Impact Category) Standard Server CEDaCI Server Circular Server Design reduces embodied impacts Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
27. The challenge of electronics design for circularity Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
28. Element / material Critical Raw Materials Materials recycled & rates – BAU scenario Ag Al 90% Au 80% Ba Ca Co X Cr Cu 80% Dy X Fe 90% In X Mg X Mn Mo Nd X Ni Pb Pr X Sb X Si X Sn Sr X Ta X Ti X W X Zn Zr
29. Element / material Critical Raw Materials Materials recycled & rates – BAU scenario Materials recycled & rates - CEDaCI scenario Ag 98% Al 90% 90% Au 80% 98% Ba Ca Co X Cr Cu 80% 98% Dy X Fe 90% 90% In X Mg X Mn Mo Nd X Ni 98% Pb 90% Pr X Sb X 90% Si X Sn 90% Sr X Ta X 90% Ti X W X Zn Zr
30. Years Standard server - BAU / 1 life Standard server - with 2nd life Prototype Circular Server BAU recycling TND recycling BAU recycling TND recycling BAU recycling TND recycling 1 to 4 new new new new new new 5 to 8 new new refurbish #1 refurbish #1 refurbish #1 refurbish #1 9 to 12 new new new new refurbish #2 refurbish #2 13 to 16 new new refurbish #1 refurbish #1 refurbish #3 refurbish #3 Circular Server Design vs standard server Reuse vs new life cycle scenarios Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
31. Circular Server Design vs standard server Reuse vs new / BAU vs CEDaCI recycling life cycle scenarios Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 270.98 201.57 541.95 403.13 205.26 156.62 410.51 313.25 190.67 147.20 374.21 288.58 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 mPt Server Impact Over Lifetime Standard server - new - 4 yr refresh / 8 yrs; BAU recycling Standard server - new - 4 yr refresh / 8 yrs; CEDaCI recycling Standard server - new - 4 yr refresh / 16 yrs; BAU recycling Standard server - new - 4 yr refresh / 16 yrs; CEDaCI recycling Standard server - refurb #1 / 8yrs; BAU recycling Standard server - refurb #1 / 8yrs; CEDaCI recycling Standard server - refurb #1 x 2 / 16yrs; BAU recycling Standard server - refurb #1 x 2 / 16yrs; CEDaCI recycling CEDaCI server - refurb #1 / 8yrs; BAU recycling CEDaCI server - refurb #1 / 8yrs; CEDaCI recycling CEDaCI server - refurb #3 / 16yrs; BAU recycling CEDaCI server - refurb #3 / 16yrs; CEDaCI recycling
32. Criticality – materials high technical and economic importance Geopolitical location Unmined reserves Current recycling rates - ~1% Substitution? Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
33. Criticality – materials high technical and economic importance Geopolitical location Unmined reserves Current recycling rates - ~1% Substitution? Servers – 27 elements - 12 CRM Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
34. Short term Criticality assessment e.g. of SSD and HDDs Materials Criticality Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
35. Long term Criticality assessment of HDDs and SSDs Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
36. Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 LCA parameters - constants HPE ProLiant DL380 Gen 10 – air cooled Iceotope – immersion cooled – uses Proliant Gen 10 chassis
37. Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Product only / cradle to gate – comparing embodied impact of ‘typical’ gen 10 server with different cooling and memory tech 100% 99% 93% Air cooled + HDDs Air cooled + SSDs Liquid cooled + SSDs
38. Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 LCA parameters – variable impact of geographical location Different climates / ambient temps and different grid mixes • Mid Europe – UK / Germany • South Europe – Italy / Spain / Greece • Cold Arctic – Norway / Sweden • Hot wet – Costa Rica, Singapore • Hot dry – UAE, Namibia • Energy input baseline air cooled server – 25% utilisation; 200 w/hr; 365 days / yr = 1,747 kWh / yr • Models - DC + server cooling different locations
39. Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Impact of annual energy inputs and grid mix / yr on air / liquid cooling systems 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 GB ES DE IT GR FR NO SE UAE NA CR SG LIQUID COOLED AIR COOLED
40. Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Combined operational and embodied impact of ‘typical’ gen 10 servers in different locations / climate zones with different grid mixes
41. Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 https://semianalysis.com/2024/03/13/ai-datacenter-energy-dilemma-race/ Rising energy demand – by 2028 50% critical power driven by AI – demand on physical resources will increase – what and how much????
42. Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Demand on physical resources will increase – based on current server design 7& CAGR – Market Research Future https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/servers-market- 16189#:~:text=Servers%20Market%20Overview&text=The%20Servers%20market%20industry%20is,period%20(2023%20%2D%202032). 12.1% CAGR - IRB Trends and Reports (Information Technology ) 2023 - 14 bn servers shipped = ~280 million tonnes materials 2030 - 7% CAGR = ~450 million tonnes materials 2030 – 12.1% CAGR = ~622 million tonnes materials 0 5,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 25,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 35,000,000,000 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Estimated growth in server market 2023-2030 7% CAGR 12% CAGR 2023 - 14 bn servers shipped = ~CRM 31,500 tonnes 2030 - 7% CAGR = ~CRM 50,500 tonnes 2030 – 12.1% CAGR = ~CRM 70,000 tonnes
43. Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Meta – Our next generation Data Center Design’ Google ‘Hyperscale Data Center Architecture Trends’ Data Centre design trends – reconfiguration – decrease size of storage (high-capacity flash) = increase compute space – operational / embodied impact?
44. Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 • Full LCSA – include end-of-life scenarios • AI – shift in demand for compute and energy • ~10x greater than non-AI work? • Changes in DC / server design = changes to embodied impact • How is AI affecting storage air & liquid cooling performance and embodied impacts? • Different solutions for different types of DC – enterprise / co-lo / hyperscale? • Different designs / configurations / solutions for different locations? Questions and future work…..
45. Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 ASMAI – Augmenting Sustainability Metrics via Artificial Intelligence • Develop AI-based tool(s) • Compare impact with human activity • Lit review ~1000 articles • Best process - LLM? • Develop efficient process? • Collect high quality data re AI process & use • Whole systems approach – trade offs / mitigation
46. Priority … product groups in the context of value chains …such as textiles, electronics, ICT 2012 – 2018 5% increase in CE linked jobs Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
47. Priority … product groups in the context of value chains …such as textiles, electronics, ICT 2012 – 2018 5% increase in CE linked jobs UK Government Circular Economy Package EU / UK Guidelines changing to legislation Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
48. o uses less energy o lasts longer o can be easily repaired o parts can be easily disassembled and put to further use o contains fewer substances of concern o can be easily recycled o contains more recycled content o has a lower carbon and environmental footprint over its lifecycle Regulation (EU) 2024/1781 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 June 2024 establishing a framework for the setting of ecodesign requirements for sustainable products, amending Directive (EU) 2020/1828 and Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 and repealing Directive 2009/125/EC Eco-design is not an option Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
49. o uses less energy o lasts longer o can be easily repaired o parts can be easily disassembled and put to further use o contains fewer substances of concern o can be easily recycled o contains more recycled content o has a lower carbon and environmental footprint over its lifecycle Regulation (EU) 2024/1781 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 June 2024 establishing a framework for the setting of ecodesign requirements for sustainable products, amending Directive (EU) 2020/1828 and Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 and repealing Directive 2009/125/EC Commission Regulation (EU) 2019/424 of 15 March 2019 laying down ecodesign requirements for servers and data storage products pursuant to Directive 2009/125/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and amending Commission Regulation (EU) No 617/2013 ECODESIGN REVIEW STUDY SERVERS AND DATA STORAGE PRODUCTS – revised regulations in line with new directive Introduction – imminent https://eco-servers-review.eu/index.html - Eco-design is not an option Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24
50. Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24 Meeting or missing targets? Data centres, hardware, AI and sustainability Basic AI ‘task’ = 4-5x more energy than non-AI task Hyperscalers carbon output – increased ~45% What is real / comprehensive impact? Impact on resources / waste etc – unknown but growing Sustainability? CEDaCI – demonstrated value of CE and whole systems approach Diverse variables affect sustainability – one-size fits all doesn’t work! Need accurate data to inform decisions Get metrics right! Get targets right!
51. Thank you for listening Deborah Andrews https://www.cedaci.org/ deborah.andrews@lsbu.ac.uk Deborah Andrews, Green IO conference, Paris, 5.12.24