Insight Demo

Insight Demo

Transcript

1. Loan repayment prediction for repeat borrowers Catrin Mills
2. Online peer-to-peer microfinancing
3. 80% ✔ Loan #1 Loan #2 Many who repay first loan go on to receive second loan
4. ✔ Loan #1 Loan #2 Default is Bad for Everyone! DEFAULT
5. ✔ Loan #1 Loan #2 Default is Bad for Everyone! DEFAULT Money could have been recirculated to other borrowers
6. Loan #1 Loan #2 How does the 1st Loan Affect 2nd Loan Default? DEFAULT ❓
7. Loan #1 Loan #2 DEFAULT • amount • # installments • # on-time payments • lump sums • interaction with lenders ❓ Key Features How does the 1st Loan Affect 2nd Loan Default?
8. Loan #1 Loan #2 DEFAULT ❓ How does the 1st Loan Affect 2nd Loan Default? Prediction
9. Loan #1 Loan #2 DEFAULT ❓ How does the 1st Loan Affect 2nd Loan Default? Prediction Feature Importance
10. Loan #1 Loan #2 DEFAULT ❓ How does the 1st Loan Affect 2nd Loan Default? Prediction Feature Importance Loan Terms
11. Clean data Workflow
12. Clean data Extract Features Engineer Features Workflow • # and length of messages • # payments due • On-time payments • % loan 2 increase
13. Clean data Extract Features Engineer Features Workflow Predict default Random Forest Quantify impact Logistic Regression • # and length of messages • # payments due • On-time payments • % loan 2 increase
14. # messages Relative importance What affects second loan default? # messages Avg message length
15. # messages Relative importance What affects second loan default? # messages Avg message length An additional message to lenders reduces probability of default by ~40%
16. # messages Relative importance What affects second loan default? # messages Avg message length % increase loan 2 amount Loan #2 amount
17. # messages Relative importance What affects second loan default? # messages Avg message length % increase loan 2 amount Loan #2 amount # on-time payments
18. Loan #1 Loan #2 DEFAULT • amount • # installments • # on-time payments • lump sums • interaction with lenders ❓ First Loan 20% lump sum 30% lump sum 40% lump sum ✔ ✔ ㄨ Key Features How does the 1st Loan Affect 2nd Loan Default?
19. Findings Actionable Items Interaction with lenders widget/email to encourage more posts My recommendations: Loan #1
20. Findings Actionable Items Interaction with lenders widget/email to encourage more posts # on-time payments Payment reminders # of payments due My recommendations: Loan #1
21. Catrin Mills PhD, Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois Postdoc, Pacific Northwest National Lab
23. Loan #1 Loan #2 DEFAULT • amount • # installments • # on-time payments • lump sums • interaction with lenders ❓ Key Features First Loan How does the 1st Loan Affect 2nd Loan Default?
24. Loan #1 Loan #2 DEFAULT • amount • # installments • # on-time payments • lump sums • interaction with lenders ❓ Key Features First Loan 20% lump sum 30% lump sum 40% lump sum ✔ How does the 1st Loan Affect 2nd Loan Default?
25. Loan #1 Loan #2 DEFAULT • amount • # installments • # on-time payments • lump sums • interaction with lenders ❓ Key Features First Loan 20% lump sum 30% lump sum 40% lump sum ✔ ✔ How does the 1st Loan Affect 2nd Loan Default?
26. Loan #1 Loan #2 DEFAULT • amount • # installments • # on-time payments • lump sums • interaction with lenders ❓ First Loan 20% lump sum 30% lump sum 40% lump sum ✔ ✔ ㄨ Key Features How does the 1st Loan Affect 2nd Loan Default?