BLUEPrint Day 1

Transcript

3. We must have the t o r e c o g n i z e t h a t t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t is wrong A N D IT.
5. What are you forecasting, really?
9. @BlueRidgeGlobal #BLUEPrint2015
11. Time to benefit.
12. Supply chain science. Simplified.
13. START with the END in MIND
14. Release Highlights v2015 UNIQUE VALUABLE Supply Planning Secondary Supplier Event Forecasting Allocation Differentiated Store Ordering
15. There’s  a  sign  post  up  ahead…  
16. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.  
17. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   A few days? But I want it now
18. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   BETTER FASTER CHEAPER You Pick 2
19. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Traditional Projects: Inefficient and long processes: Contract Negotiation Requirements and Scope System Configuration Requirements, develop, implement, repeat
20. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   TRADITIONAL PROJECTS ü  Slow roll out ü  High initial dollar investment ü  Annual maintenance ü  Expensive implementation ü  3rd party involvement ü  Phase 2, 3, or 4
21. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Hope And Pray Project Yields
22. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   HAPPY RESULTS
23. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   And then came the cloud…
24. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Everyone Wanted In Held Hostage by Large Investments Already Made Hosted Applications: NOT Faster NOT Better NOT Cheaper So what is Faster, Better, Cheaper?       Changed Marketing Cloud-Native Providers
25. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   BETTER? Ø  Infinitely expanded power Ø  Supports complex math & science Ø  More Data Ø  More Precision Ø  More accuracy Time to benefit from better methods
26. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   FASTER Ø  No limits to capacity Ø  Improved implementation speed Ø  Modular Ø  “App Like” Ø  Reduced time to benefit For Example: Ø  Event forecasting Ø  Multi dimension order projections Ø  Real time forward buy Ø  Scalable for large environments Ø  Advanced seasonality
27. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   CHEAPER
28. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   CHEAPER
29. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Time for you to benefit from better science and a more efficient delivery platform.
30. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   @BlueRidgeGlobal #BLUEPrint2015
31. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.  
32. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.  
33. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Forecasting More than you think… Seasonal demand forecast model Historical demand time-series Less is more…Unless there is big shift in demand… The less people adjust it, the better.
34. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Forecasting Segments of the demand forecast •  Based on statistical (stochastic) forecast models •  Seasonally adjusted forecast •  Causal Forecast
35. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Forecasting Time phased joined order projections/(forecast)   Culminates in the demand plan
36. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Famous ‘Forecasts’ or Quotes “It is often said there are two types of forecasts ... lucky or wrong!!!!”
37. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Famous ‘Forecasts’ or Quotes "We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.
38. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Famous ‘Forecasts’ or Quotes "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." Western Union internal memo, 1876.
39. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Famous ‘Forecasts’ or Quotes "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949.
40. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Famous ‘Forecasts’ or Quotes "I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year" Editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall....1957
41. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Famous ‘Forecasts’ or Quotes "An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp- posts – for support rather than for illumination. “ Andrew Lang
42. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   ALL ITEMS HAVE VARIATION Do all items have seasonality? ü  How much should be considered ü  Concept of index values Why is proper seasonality important? ü  By class, item, division ü  Normalizes the forecast Misidentified Variation ü  Elevated forecast error ü  Chasing forecast What level should be used for seasonality? SEASONALITY
43. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   a   SEASONALITY
44. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Ø  Lead Time vs. Lead Time Variability Ø  Impact §  Prevent service failures §  Safety Stock Lead Time 14 days LT Dev 3 LT Dev 3 What is Lead Time?
45. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.  
46. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Not for emergency planning     Safety Stock What is it and why do we need it? Protect Against uncertainty in supply & demand If everything happened according to plan, there would be no need for Safety Stock: –  100% accurate Demand Forecasts –  100% accurate Lead-time and Supplier Fill Rates
47. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Low Stock Point LT LT Time Safety Stock Order up to level (Lead Time) Safety Stock – Ideal Configuration Inventory Level 0
48. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   (Lead Time) 0 LT LT Time Order up to level Safety Stock - Too much! Inventory Level Safety Stock Low Stock Point
49. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   (Lead Time) Safety Stock 0 LT LT Time Order up to level Safety Stock - Not enough! Inventory Level Low Stock Point
50. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Safety Stock
51. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Troubleshooting Solution Results Isolate Rank Validate Correct Repeat
52. Blue  Ridge  Solu8ons,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved.  Proprietary  and  confiden8al.   Training ü  Breakthrough training ü  Guidepost Training ü  Champion class ü  Certification ü  Brown bag talks – consequential training ü  Use SCA to guide ongoing review   A well trained staff can make all the difference.