Species distribution modeling of Texas SGCN fishes to guide landscape-level conservation.

ESA 2023 Talk
Species distribution models, Hierarchical spatial prioritization and NFCAs update

Transcript

1. Species Distribution Modeling And Native Fish Conservation Area Prioritization To Guide Landscape-level Conservation Diane Le Bouille Coauthors and partners: Jane S. Rogosch, Tim Birdsong, James Broska, Dave Buckmeier, Daniel Bunting, Adam Cohen, Gary Garrett, Dean Hendrickson, Kevin Mayes, Nate Smith
2. TEXAS NATIVE FISH CONSERVATION AREAS • INITIATED IN 2013 • 20 NFCAS • CONSERVATION PLANNING
3. THE PROJECT Species distribution models → predict probability of species occurrences, especially for at-risk species (SGCN) Hierarchical spatial prioritization → identify areas of greatest conservation value within NFCA network Coordinate → the use of datasets and research products with conservation stakeholders
4. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING Climatic and socio-ecological variables Species Distribution Models Ex. Atractosteus spatula Fishesoftexas.org Occurrence records
5. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING • Grain = catchment (COMID) • Extant = 3 main TX hydro-regions • Species = 87 SGCN • 10-model ensemble ➢ GLM, Lasso, Ridge, GAM ➢ BR trees, Random Forest, Down-sampled RF, Conditional RF, MARS, XGBoost, MaxEnt • Model Averaging
6. Campostoma spadiceum SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING
7. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING Etheostoma finticola
8. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING Nb of sp.
9. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING 2040 Projections • Climate change • Land use change • Population growth and urbanization Nb of sp. with ≥25% decrease
10. PRIORITIZING AQUATIC CONSERVATION • Focus on SGCNs and existing NFCAs • Refining NFCAs • Climate change • Development threats • Benefits • Species conservation • Recreation and access • Fisheries • Etc.
11. COORDINATE: ADVANCING NATIVE FISH CONSERVATION Update conservation plans 2025 Texas State Wildlife Action Plan Update species conservation status Inform project-based funding
12. THANK YOU!