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Species distribution modeling of Texas SGCN fishes to guide landscape-level conservation.

Diane Le Bouille
October 29, 2023
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Species distribution modeling of Texas SGCN fishes to guide landscape-level conservation.

ESA 2023 Talk
Species distribution models, Hierarchical spatial prioritization and NFCAs update

Diane Le Bouille

October 29, 2023
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Transcript

  1. Species Distribution Modeling And Native Fish Conservation Area Prioritization To

    Guide Landscape-level Conservation Diane Le Bouille Coauthors and partners: Jane S. Rogosch, Tim Birdsong, James Broska, Dave Buckmeier, Daniel Bunting, Adam Cohen, Gary Garrett, Dean Hendrickson, Kevin Mayes, Nate Smith
  2. THE PROJECT Species distribution models → predict probability of species

    occurrences, especially for at-risk species (SGCN) Hierarchical spatial prioritization → identify areas of greatest conservation value within NFCA network Coordinate → the use of datasets and research products with conservation stakeholders
  3. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING • Grain = catchment (COMID) • Extant

    = 3 main TX hydro-regions • Species = 87 SGCN • 10-model ensemble ➢ GLM, Lasso, Ridge, GAM ➢ BR trees, Random Forest, Down-sampled RF, Conditional RF, MARS, XGBoost, MaxEnt • Model Averaging
  4. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING 2040 Projections • Climate change • Land

    use change • Population growth and urbanization Nb of sp. with ≥25% decrease
  5. PRIORITIZING AQUATIC CONSERVATION • Focus on SGCNs and existing NFCAs

    • Refining NFCAs • Climate change • Development threats • Benefits • Species conservation • Recreation and access • Fisheries • Etc.
  6. COORDINATE: ADVANCING NATIVE FISH CONSERVATION Update conservation plans 2025 Texas

    State Wildlife Action Plan Update species conservation status Inform project-based funding