Species distribution modeling of Texas SGCN fishes to guide landscape-level conservation.

ESA 2023 Talk
Species distribution models, Hierarchical spatial prioritization and NFCAs update

Transcript

1. Species Distribution Modeling
   And Native Fish Conservation Area Prioritization
   To Guide Landscape-level Conservation
   Diane Le Bouille
   Coauthors and partners: Jane S. Rogosch, Tim Birdsong, James Broska,
   Dave Buckmeier, Daniel Bunting, Adam Cohen, Gary Garrett, Dean
   Hendrickson, Kevin Mayes, Nate Smith
   

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2. TEXAS NATIVE FISH
   CONSERVATION AREAS
   • INITIATED IN 2013
   • 20 NFCAS
   • CONSERVATION PLANNING
   

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3. THE PROJECT
   Species distribution models
   → predict probability of species occurrences, especially for
   at-risk species (SGCN)
   Hierarchical spatial prioritization
   → identify areas of greatest conservation value within
   NFCA network
   Coordinate
   → the use of datasets and research products with
   conservation stakeholders
   

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4. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING
   Climatic and socio-ecological variables
   Species Distribution Models
   Ex. Atractosteus spatula
   Fishesoftexas.org
   Occurrence records
   

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5. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING
   • Grain = catchment (COMID)
   • Extant = 3 main TX hydro-regions
   • Species = 87 SGCN
   • 10-model ensemble
   ➢ GLM, Lasso, Ridge, GAM
   ➢ BR trees, Random Forest, Down-sampled RF, Conditional RF, MARS, XGBoost, MaxEnt
   • Model Averaging
   

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6. Campostoma spadiceum
   SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING
   

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7. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING
   Etheostoma finticola
   

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8. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING
   Nb of sp.
   

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9. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING
   2040 Projections
   • Climate change
   • Land use change
   • Population growth and
   urbanization Nb of sp. with
   ≥25% decrease
   

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10. PRIORITIZING AQUATIC CONSERVATION
    • Focus on SGCNs and existing NFCAs
    • Refining NFCAs
    • Climate change
    • Development threats
    • Benefits
    • Species conservation
    • Recreation and access
    • Fisheries
    • Etc.
    

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11. COORDINATE: ADVANCING NATIVE FISH CONSERVATION
    Update conservation plans
    2025 Texas State Wildlife Action Plan
    Update species conservation status
    Inform project-based funding
    

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12. THANK YOU!
    

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