Robert Goss

Renewable Obligation Certificates and large scale solar in the UK

Transcript

1. Robert Goss Managing Director, Conergy
2. 1 Robert Goss, MD Conergy UK ENERGY NOW, 14 February 2013 Conergy UK ROCs and Large Scale Solar
3. 2 Conergy, Europe’s leading supplier to debt-financed projects UK office since 2010 End-to-end support through design, planning and build 12 year module warranties Yield insurance 2 GW installed worldwide 14 years experience, Frankfurt-listed
4. Conergy has wide experience in large-scale installation Rooftops Large-Scale Roofs Solar Farms
5. First 5MW plant in the UK (“5 in 5” = 5 MW in 5 weeks) Description of area Agricultural land Construction start May 2011 Date of connection July 2011 Installed capacity 4,8 MWp Estimated power production p.a. 4,258 MWh Technology Poly-crystalline Modules Conergy PowerPlus 220P / 225P 230P Mounting System Solar Linea I Inverters Sunny Central SMA PV plant Hawton, Nottinghamshire
6. 5 Solar is popular with farmers… One in six British farmers has an installation | Solar industry well established in the UK – 2GW installed nationally | Module prices 50% lower than 18 months ago | Yields much higher than forecast | EPC costs falling – best time for build is summer | Bigger & bigger solar farms | 50 in planning in Cornwall alone | Banks and pension funds supportive lenders and buyers
7. 6 …and Solar is now popular with HM Government! | Solar included in Renewable Energy Roadmap | Government targets 22GW of solar capacity by 2020 | National Solar Centre opening in Cornwall | ROCs fixed for solar through 2017 – best deal is early
8. 7 What are ROCs? | Administered by Ofgem | Certificate issued for renewable energy (e.g. solar) generated and consumed in the UK | Issued per MWh — 1.7 for rooftop solar / 1.6 for ground-mounted solar — to generators | ROCs are bought by electricity suppliers from generators to meet their ‘renewables obligation’ i.e. 12.4% of electricity supplied (2013) | Lower rates in Northern Ireland than England, Scotland and Wales What are Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) | Contract between a generator and an energy supplier | Long-term (e.g. 10 year) stable-price contract or variable year-to-year | Average auction value of ROC in 2012: £43.86
9. 8 Backdrop is a changing market
10. 9 The Future is coming quickly… au·tar·ky /ˈôˌtärkē/ Noun 1. Economic independence or self- sufficiency. 2. A country, state, or society that is economically independent 3. Self-sufficiency for the customer
11. 10 Can solar insulate you against energy price rises? The LCOE gives the real price of solar over time Commercial electricity price without VAT BENCH- MARKS Yearly running expenses Projected energy yield with degradation LCOE PV kWh £ kWh Initial invest Discounting term
12. 11 TARGET: Maximize consumption rate & degree of autarky  Leverage daytime energy demands System consumption: The proportion of solar energy consumed vs. exported = more profitable use Autarky: The proportion of total energy demands that is met by solar System Consumption & Autarky SYSTEM CONSUMPTION Consumed PV kWh (e.g. 1,200 kWh)  PV system output (e.g. 3,000 kWh) = 40% High rate of consumption increases profitability of PV system investment (IRR) AUTARKY Self-consumed PV kWh (e.g. 1,200 kWh)  Electricity demand (e.g. 4,500 kWh) = 26% High degree of autarky increases absolute earnings / electricity cost savings
13. 12 Looking ahead: EMS, Storage systems, Electric transport, other RE 65% Autarky In Agri-business 0% 100% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Technical Solutions Simple Load-Management First storage systems Fully integrated Energy Management Systems Standardization of protocols Solar storage becomes ready for mass market Storage Load management Price degression for Li-Ion storage / Technical development / Real life experience 1000 €/kWh 500 €/kWh 300 €/kWh 200 €/kWh 30% 35% 55% 80% Electric forklifts, tractors Source: GE&S/SE Heat pumps, Other RE technologies
14. 13 Agri-Commercial energy prices are low in UK, but solar is already competitive Source: GE&S/SE Cost of build
15. 14 £3,500,000 £3,000,000 £2,500,000 £2,000,000 £1,500,000 £1,000,000 £500,000 £0 £500,000 £1,000,000 FiT Initial Cost O&M Utilities No PV System PV System With energy prices rising at 5%, commercial customers with daytime consumption benefit from returns on FiTs + cost savings Expense s Earnings Refrigerated warehouse | Electricity demand: 800,000 kWh/a | PV system size & output: 250kWp -> 237,500 kWh/a | System consumption rate: 75% -> 178,000 kWh/a | Autarky: 20% EXAMPLE 30%
16. 15 Autarky: New answers - the optimal system System consumption Autarky Optimisation curve
17. 16 The big questions Do you have unproductive land? ✓ Can you leverage roofspace? ✓ How much energy do you consume? ✓ What are your financial requirements? ✓
18. 17 JC Saul: From Cabbages to Kings of Autarky JC Saul Refrigeration, Lincolnshire | Electricity demand: 830kWp | PV system size & output: 250kWp | Consumption rate: 100% | Autarky: 30% | Energy savings: 30k pa. | Payback 10 years CASE STUDY
19. AUTARKY IN THE UK www.conergyuk.co.uk 0844 381 4148 r.goss@conergy.co.uk Meet us @ Energy Now at Stand 139!