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GFF Keynote

GFF Keynote

Michell Zappa

March 06, 2012
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  1. Michell Zappa
    @envisioningtech
    [email protected]
    envisioningtech.com
    Over the last day we have looked at dozens of intriguing emerging technologies and have also started thinking about what they mean
    for the future of security.
    I’m here today to talk a little bit about my approach for looking at these technologies by taking a step back, looking at how they relate,
    and to envision scenarios we might expect based on current trends.

    View full-size slide

  2. envisioning
    technology
    I’ve published a visualization called “Envisioning Technology”.

    View full-size slide

  3. ENERGY
    ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS
    SENSORS GEOTECH
    SPACE
    INTERFACES UBICOMP
    INTERNET
    Commercial
    spaceflight
    Inductive
    chargers
    Fuel cells
    Bio-enhanced
    fuels
    Tidal turbines
    Additive
    manufacturing
    Graphene
    Self-healing
    materials
    Personal
    gene sequencing
    Organ
    printing
    Smart
    toys
    Appliance
    robots
    Volumetric
    (3D) screens
    Flexible screens
    Tablets
    Boards
    Biometric
    sensors
    Depth
    imaging
    Near-field
    communication
    Pervasive
    video
    capture
    Speech
    recognition
    Augmented
    reality
    Gesture
    recognition
    Multi
    touch
    4G
    Cloud
    computing
    Cyber-
    warfare
    Mesh
    networking
    AI INTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ENERGY SPACE GEOTECH
    The key idea is to look at all sorts of emerging technologies.
    I started by organizing my research across eleven areas, “from bits to atoms”s, to speak.

    View full-size slide

  4. Machine augmented
    cognition
    2030
    2040
    Domestic
    robots
    Embodied
    avatars
    Swarm
    robotics
    Utility
    fog
    Reprogrammable
    chips
    Skin-embedded
    screens
    Retinal
    screens
    Optogenetics
    Neuro-
    informatics
    Immersive
    virtual reality
    Interplanetary
    internet
    Exocortex
    Remote
    presence
    Machine-
    augmented
    cognition
    2012
    2020
    2030
    2040
    The next step is spreading out the observations on a timeline. We cover speculations for approximately the next 30 years.

    View full-size slide

  5. ROBOTICS
    ARTIFICIAL
    INTELLIGENCE
    SENSORS
    INTERFACES UBICOMP
    INTERNET
    Smart
    toys
    Appliance
    robots
    Volumetric
    (3D) screens
    Flexible screens
    Tablets
    Boards
    Biometric
    sensors
    Depth
    imaging
    Near-field
    communication
    Pervasive
    video
    capture
    Speech
    recognition
    Augmented
    reality
    Gesture
    recognition
    Multi
    touch
    4G
    Cloud
    computing
    Cyber-
    warfare
    Mesh
    networking
    Software
    agents
    High-frequency
    trading
    Natural language
    interpretation

    View full-size slide

  6. Weather
    engineering
    Sub-orbital
    spaceflight
    Space
    tourism
    Multi-segmented
    smart grids
    Piezo-
    electricity
    Photvoltaic
    glass
    Personal
    fabricators
    Meta-
    materials
    Optical
    invisibility cloaks
    In-vitro
    meat
    Personalized
    medicine
    Smart drugs
    Synthetic
    blood
    Robotic
    surgery
    Self-driving
    vehicles
    Powered
    exoskeleton
    Unmanned
    aerial

    View full-size slide

  7. Mole
    asse
    Nan
    Artificial
    retinas
    Gene therapy
    Hybrid
    assisted limbs
    Swarm
    robotics
    Skin-embedded
    screens
    Retinal
    screens
    Optogenetics
    Neuro-
    informatics
    Immersive
    virtual reality
    e

    View full-size slide

  8. Machine augmented
    cognition
    2012
    2013
    2014
    2015
    2016
    2017
    2018
    2019
    2020
    2030
    2040
    2012
    2013
    2014
    2015
    2016
    2017
    2019
    2020
    2030
    2040
    ENERGY
    ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS
    ARTIFICIAL
    INTELLIGENCE
    SENSORS GEOTECH
    QUANTITATIVE FORECASTS
    SPACE
    INTERFACES UBICOMP
    INTERNET
    World population 8 billion
    Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS
    BRICs GDP overtakes the G7
    Source: Goldman Sachs – http://bit.ly/nc9Wqj
    Petabyte storage standard
    Source: http://bit.ly/r9BYQc
    Exabyte storage standard
    Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb
    Terabit internet speed standard
    Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb
    World population reaches 9 billion
    Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS
    Source: http://bit.ly/6MoQJc
    Sources:
    Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04
    Ericsson – http://bit.ly/avvVok
    Alan Conroy – http://bit.ly/pofHp5
    FutureTimeline – http://bit.ly/qz4ben
    Sources:
    Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04
    InternetWorldStats – http://bit.ly/AKbO5
    Global online population: ± 2 billion
    Connected devices: ±10 billion
    Global online population: 4-5 billion
    Connected devices: 30-50 billion
    $150 Hard disk: ±200 Tb
    Standard RAM: ±750Gb
    Global online population: ± 2.5 billion
    Connected devices: ±15 billion
    $ 1.000 computer reaches the
    capacity of the human brain
    (± 1015 calculations per second)
    Vertical
    farming
    Weather
    engineering
    Sea-
    steading
    Desalination
    Carbon
    sequestration
    Climate
    engineering
    Arcologies
    Commercial
    spaceflight
    Sub-orbital
    spaceflight
    Lunar
    outpost
    Mars
    mission
    Solar
    sail
    Space
    elevator
    Space
    tourism
    Inductive
    chargers
    Thorium
    reactor
    Traveling
    wave reactor
    Fuel cells
    Multi-segmented
    smart grids
    Biomechanical
    harvesting
    Bio-enhanced
    fuels
    Artificial
    photosynthesis
    Space-based
    solar power
    Piezo-
    electricity
    Photvoltaic
    glass
    Nano-
    generators
    Enernet
    Tidal turbines
    Programmable
    matter
    Personal
    fabricators
    Molecular
    assembler
    Meta-
    materials
    Additive
    manufacturing
    Graphene
    Optical
    invisibility cloaks
    Biomaterials
    Carbon
    nanotubes
    Self-healing
    materials
    Nanowires
    Anti-
    aging
    drugs
    Stem-cell
    treatments
    In-vitro
    meat
    Nanomedicine
    Artificial
    retinas
    Personal
    gene sequencing
    Synthetic
    biology
    Personalized
    medicine
    Gene therapy
    Hybrid
    assisted limbs
    Smart drugs
    Synthetic
    blood
    Organ
    printing
    Smart
    toys
    Robotic
    surgery
    Appliance
    robots
    Self-driving
    vehicles
    Domestic
    robots
    Powered
    exoskeleton
    Embodied
    avatars
    Swarm
    robotics
    Utility
    fog
    Unmanned
    aerial
    vehicles
    Fabric-embedded
    screens
    Reprogrammable
    chips
    Pico-
    projectors
    Volumetric
    (3D) screens
    Flexible screens
    Skin-embedded
    screens
    Tablets
    Boards
    Retinal
    screens
    Eyewear-embedded
    screens
    Context-aware
    computing
    Smart
    power meters
    Biometric
    sensors
    Machine
    vision
    Optogenetics
    Depth
    imaging
    Biomarkers
    Neuro-
    informatics
    Near-field
    communication
    Pervasive
    video
    capture
    Computational
    photography
    Speech
    recognition
    Haptics
    4K
    Augmented
    reality
    Gesture
    recognition
    Multi
    touch
    Immersive
    virtual reality
    Holography
    Telepresence
    4G
    5G
    Cloud
    computing
    Interplanetary
    internet
    Exocortex
    Virtual
    currencies
    Cyber-
    warfare
    Mesh
    networking
    Reputation
    economy
    Remote
    presence
    VR-only
    lifeforms
    Machine-
    augmented
    cognition
    Software
    agents
    High-frequency
    trading
    Natural language
    interpretation
    Procedural
    storytelling
    Machine
    translation
    You can see it as an “interdisciplinary roadmap for the future.”

    View full-size slide

  9. Machine augmented
    cognition
    2012
    2013
    2014
    2015
    2016
    2017
    2018
    2019
    2020
    2030
    2040
    2012
    2013
    2014
    2015
    2016
    2017
    2019
    2020
    2030
    2040
    ENERGY
    ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS
    ARTIFICIAL
    INTELLIGENCE
    SENSORS GEOTECH
    QUANTITATIVE FORECASTS
    SPACE
    INTERFACES UBICOMP
    INTERNET
    World population 8 billion
    Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS
    BRICs GDP overtakes the G7
    Source: Goldman Sachs – http://bit.ly/nc9Wqj
    Petabyte storage standard
    Source: http://bit.ly/r9BYQc
    Exabyte storage standard
    Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb
    Terabit internet speed standard
    Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb
    World population reaches 9 billion
    Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS
    Source: http://bit.ly/6MoQJc
    Sources:
    Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04
    Ericsson – http://bit.ly/avvVok
    Alan Conroy – http://bit.ly/pofHp5
    FutureTimeline – http://bit.ly/qz4ben
    Sources:
    Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04
    InternetWorldStats – http://bit.ly/AKbO5
    Global online population: ± 2 billion
    Connected devices: ±10 billion
    Global online population: 4-5 billion
    Connected devices: 30-50 billion
    $150 Hard disk: ±200 Tb
    Standard RAM: ±750Gb
    Global online population: ± 2.5 billion
    Connected devices: ±15 billion
    $ 1.000 computer reaches the
    capacity of the human brain
    (± 1015 calculations per second)
    Vertical
    farming
    Weather
    engineering
    Sea-
    steading
    Desalination
    Carbon
    sequestration
    Climate
    engineering
    Arcologies
    Commercial
    spaceflight
    Sub-orbital
    spaceflight
    Lunar
    outpost
    Mars
    mission
    Solar
    sail
    Space
    elevator
    Space
    tourism
    Inductive
    chargers
    Thorium
    reactor
    Traveling
    wave reactor
    Fuel cells
    Multi-segmented
    smart grids
    Biomechanical
    harvesting
    Bio-enhanced
    fuels
    Artificial
    photosynthesis
    Space-based
    solar power
    Piezo-
    electricity
    Photvoltaic
    glass
    Nano-
    generators
    Enernet
    Tidal turbines
    Programmable
    matter
    Personal
    fabricators
    Molecular
    assembler
    Meta-
    materials
    Additive
    manufacturing
    Graphene
    Optical
    invisibility cloaks
    Biomaterials
    Carbon
    nanotubes
    Self-healing
    materials
    Nanowires
    Anti-
    aging
    drugs
    Stem-cell
    treatments
    In-vitro
    meat
    Nanomedicine
    Artificial
    retinas
    Personal
    gene sequencing
    Synthetic
    biology
    Personalized
    medicine
    Gene therapy
    Hybrid
    assisted limbs
    Smart drugs
    Synthetic
    blood
    Organ
    printing
    Smart
    toys
    Robotic
    surgery
    Appliance
    robots
    Self-driving
    vehicles
    Domestic
    robots
    Powered
    exoskeleton
    Embodied
    avatars
    Swarm
    robotics
    Utility
    fog
    Unmanned
    aerial
    vehicles
    Fabric-embedded
    screens
    Reprogrammable
    chips
    Pico-
    projectors
    Volumetric
    (3D) screens
    Flexible screens
    Skin-embedded
    screens
    Tablets
    Boards
    Retinal
    screens
    Eyewear-embedded
    screens
    Context-aware
    computing
    Smart
    power meters
    Biometric
    sensors
    Machine
    vision
    Optogenetics
    Depth
    imaging
    Biomarkers
    Neuro-
    informatics
    Near-field
    communication
    Pervasive
    video
    capture
    Computational
    photography
    Speech
    recognition
    Haptics
    4K
    Augmented
    reality
    Gesture
    recognition
    Multi
    touch
    Immersive
    virtual reality
    Holography
    Telepresence
    4G
    5G
    Cloud
    computing
    Interplanetary
    internet
    Exocortex
    Virtual
    currencies
    Cyber-
    warfare
    Mesh
    networking
    Reputation
    economy
    Remote
    presence
    VR-only
    lifeforms
    Machine-
    augmented
    cognition
    Software
    agents
    High-frequency
    trading
    Natural language
    interpretation
    Procedural
    storytelling
    Machine
    translation
    But I think it’s true worth is displayed when you start connecting the dots between the individual technologies and start thinking
    about the critical paths between them.

    View full-size slide

  10. GPS
    GPS GPS
    GPS
    One way of seeing intersections between different technologies is from looking backwards in time. Take an existing product or service
    and flesh out the individual components that were necessary for it to be invented.
    What makes YouTube possible? The combination of: ubiquitous cameras, cheap storage, fast processing, a proliferation of internet
    users and fast internet access.

    View full-size slide

  11. GPS
    GPS
    Same thing for a service like 23andMe. It was only possible after the proliferation of fast processing, automatic sequencing machines,
    optical sensors and a degree of social network analysis.

    View full-size slide

  12. Scenario #1:
    Surveillance
    Today I’ll go over three brief sci-fi scenarios based on extrapolating existing trends.

    View full-size slide

  13. A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors: Experiments performed with a team of nano quadrotors at the GRASP Lab, University of Pennsylvania
    http:/
    /www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQIMGV5vtd4

    View full-size slide

  14. The rise in drone journalism.

    View full-size slide

  15. Moscow protests
    http:/
    /dronejournalism.tumblr.com/post/14136093865/more-on-the-moscow-protest-photos

    View full-size slide

  16. http:/
    /www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=9vOor1xmVDs

    View full-size slide

  17. The Xbox Kinect - a brilliant example of depth imaging (or computer vision) popularizing as a toy.

    View full-size slide

  18. http:/
    /www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QrnwoO1-8A
    This is how the Kinect sees the world.

    View full-size slide

  19. Drone cameras
    Swarm robotics
    Computer vision
    So where do you end up in a future where these three technologies are prominent?

    View full-size slide

  20. Imagine a future with a swarm of thumbnail-sized flying nanocopters with 3D cameras on them.

    View full-size slide

  21. “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”
    Imagine a cloud of cameras. Unstoppable, able to see everything. Drop it into a hostage situation or use it for spying. The possibilities
    and risks are endless.

    View full-size slide

  22. “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”

    View full-size slide

  23. “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”
    And if you doubt the possibility, check the AR.Drone Parrot, a $300 helicopter toy with a camera which is controlled by an iPhone app.

    View full-size slide

  24. Scenario #2:
    Urban intelligence

    View full-size slide

  25. Outboard brain: http:/
    /www.wired.com/techbiz/people/magazine/15-10/st_thompson
    We are outsourcing as much information as possible from our brains into our portable devices. Phone numbers, addresses, directions,
    etc.

    View full-size slide

  26. And we are outsourcing the decision-making process to our devices.
    Here is a WiFi-enabled umbrella which flashes if it’s going to rain. No need to look up the weather.

    View full-size slide

  27. We’re moving toward an internet of things, where all infrastructure is interdependent and connected.
    Sometimes called the “smart city”.

    View full-size slide

  28. The surge of personal agents.

    View full-size slide

  29. Coupled with context-aware computers which know where we are.

    View full-size slide

  30. Smart infrastructure
    Personal agents
    Contextual computing

    View full-size slide

  31. “DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO”
    I call this trend “tell me what to do”. A scenario where the computer, or the network, is smart enough to guide you through your day.
    Tell you which road to take based on traffic patterns, notify you when a friend is nearby, coordinate your calendar, etc.
    http:/
    /www.flickr.com/photos/cowboyuk80/3742085978/sizes/o/in/photostream/

    View full-size slide

  32. “DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO”
    http:/
    /www.flickr.com/photos/cowboyuk80/3742085978/sizes/o/in/photostream/

    View full-size slide

  33. Scenario #3:
    Self-organization

    View full-size slide

  34. Mobile phones generally work by connecting wirelessly to microcells. It’s a distributed but centralized network.

    View full-size slide

  35. We are seeing the rise of mesh networks, or mobile ad-hoc networks. Instead of being centralized around antennas, each node
    becomes a relay. This means mobile phones with this technology can communicate without any existing infrastructure in place.

    View full-size slide

  36. “In essence, Mobile Hotspots seeks to
    provide cell-tower-class performance
    without the infrastructure.”
    And DARPA is already working on this technology.
    http:/
    /www.darpa.mil/NewsEvents/Releases/2012/02/10.aspx

    View full-size slide

  37. Likewise, we usually think of energy as a centralized process.

    View full-size slide

  38. But with the rise of photovoltaic capacity in solar cells, we’re quickly reaching the point where that’s no longer necessary.

    View full-size slide

  39. Look at the rising lines. Photovoltaic efficiency rises yearly.

    View full-size slide

  40. http:/
    /www.technologyreview.com/energy/39544/

    View full-size slide

  41. $799.99
    And finally, smartphones are generally seen as expensive.

    View full-size slide

  42. $
    But the trend is for the price of all electronics to drop quickly over time.

    View full-size slide

  43. Mesh networking
    Photovoltaics
    Affordable smartphones

    View full-size slide

  44. “AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”
    The takeaway? Imagine a cheap smartphone that works entirely off the grid. Communicates with anyone on the network, and is
    impossible to censor. Now imagine airdropping those into a country where communications have been shut down by the
    government.

    View full-size slide

  45. “AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”
    Given the right political conditions and level of tension, you could potentially set off a revolution like what we saw around the middle
    east in 2011.

    View full-size slide

  46. “AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”
    Without naming names, I’m sure you can all think of a couple of regions where these airdrops could come in handy.

    View full-size slide

  47. “AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”
    “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”
    “DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO”
    Again, this is just a handful of scenarios based on less than a dozen actual technologies.

    View full-size slide

  48. The other characteristic about technology is how it’s always progressing.
    A century ago, humanity had never even taken flight. Now, we take it for granted. (1903)

    View full-size slide

  49. Same with medical imaging. (1895)

    View full-size slide

  50. Connect the dots. See where technologies intersect.

    View full-size slide

  51. Thank you.
    @envisioningtech
    [email protected]
    envisioningtech.com

    View full-size slide