GOP Future

Transcript

1. The Urgency of Immigration Reform for the Republican Party CONFIDENTIAL:,
2. Executive Summary Republicans,already,face,a,difficult,map,in,Presiden5al,races,–,and,are,in,danger,of,missing, their,last,real,chance,to,correct,course,by,failing,to,pass,immigra5on,reform., ! •  Huge!demographic!shi0s!plus!the!GOP’s!massive!declines!with!La;no!and!Asian= American!voters!are!largely!to!blame!for!losing!recent!Presiden;al!elec;ons.! ! •  On!the!current!trajectory,!the!GOP!will!con;nue!to!get!a!smaller!percentage!of!these! rapidly!expanding!groups,!severely!hur;ng!Presiden;al!and!then!Senate!&!House!races.!! •  La;nos!and!Asian=Americans!are!poten;ally!geGable!voters!–!but!polling!clearly!shows! that!immigra;on!reform!is!a!gateway!issue.! •  There!are!only!2!paths:! •  GOP!can!either!help!pass!reform!&!engage!with!these!groups!on!other!issues,!or! •  GOP!blamed!by!a!4=1!margin!if!reform!fails.!There!is!no!work=around.! ! •  If!reform!fails!during!this!effort,!the!poli;cal!consequences!for!the!GOP!are!difficult!to! overstate!and!have!a!very!long!las;ng!impact.! !
3. Democrats are essentially guaranteed 242 electoral votes through the 18 states that have voted blue in each election since 1992. WA 12 OR 7 CA 55 MN 10 MI 16 WI 10 IL 20 NY 29 ME 4 PA 20 VT 3 MD 10 DC 3 NJ 14 DE 3 MA 11 CT 7 RI 4 HI 4 Source:(FEC(
4. 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, Presidential Elections, 1980-2012: Democratic 2-Way Vote Share by State! Source:(FEC( This means Democrats are just 28 electoral votes away from a stable majority. To stop this from happening in the near future, the GOP must reverse Democratic trends in more Hispanic states. New Mexico (5 electoral votes) Nevada (6 votes) Colorado (9 votes) Arizona (11 votes) 40%! 36%! 36%! 36%! 55%! 53%! 53%! 45%!
5. WA 12 OR 7 CA 55 MN 10 MI 16 WI 10 IL 20 NY 29 ME 4 PA 20 MD 10 DC 3 NJ 14 DE 3 MA 11 CT 7 RI 4 VT 3 HI 4 Source:(FEC( Should New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona and Nevada continue on their recent paths, the 242-vote Democratic coalition will become a 273 electoral vote majority. NV 6 AZ 11 CO 9 NM 5
6. California – not long ago the heart of the GOP - is a stark example of how GOP policies that are perceived as anti-immigrant can destroy the party in diverse areas. Source:(La.no(Decisions( California,before,and,, aBer,Prop,187!
7. The GOP has lost the last two Presidential elections largely because of Asian and Hispanic voters.
8. If the 2012 electorate was like the 1992 electorate, Mitt Romney would be President. In the 1992 Presidential election, 87% of voters were white. If that were true in 2012, Mitt Romney’s margin among white voters alone would have earned him 51% of the vote. Source:(Voter(News(Service(
9. But times have changed. In recent elections, the Hispanic and Asian vote shares have multiplied several times over. 87%, 83%, 81%, 77%, 74%,72%, 2%, 5%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 1%, 1%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 3%, 0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, Non=Hispanic!White! Hispanic! Asian! Presidential Elections, 1992-2012: Vote Share by Race ! Sources:(Voter(News(Service,(Na.onal(Elec.on(Pool,(CNN(
10. While the Hispanic and Asian votes grow, they are moving away from the Republican Party. Source:(CNN(Exit(Polls( 44%, 35%, 26%, 44%, 31%, 27%, 25%, 50%, 2004, 2008, 2012, Asian! Hispanic! Presidential Elections, 2004-2012: % of Hispanics and Asian Americans voting Republican!
11. Romney lost resoundingly among every segment of Hispanic voters, garnering less than 1 in 4 votes from Latino women and youth voters Source:(Pew(Hispanic(Center(analysis(of(2012(CNN(exit(poll(results( The!GOP’s!problems!are! most!severe!with!young! La;nos!–!the!fastest! growing,!most!important! demographic!–!and!the! voters!whose!party!affilia;on! is!most!up!for!grabs.!
12. And the GOP isn’t getting any closer to the White House by ONLY winning white voters. “At some point in the future – given current demographic trends – Republicans could win virtually every single white vote in the country and not be able to win a national election.” - Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake, Washington Post, Sources:(270towin.com,(Washington(Post( In 2004, Bush won 58% of white voters and 286 electoral votes.! In 2012, Romney won 59% of white voters and 206 electoral votes.!
13. The GOP carried each of the seven most Hispanic states except California when it last won the White House in 2004. Source:(FEC( Texas Bush +23 Colorado Bush +5 New Mexico Bush +1 Arizona Bush +10 Nevada Bush +3 Florida Bush +5!
14. In 2012, it carried two of them. Source:(FEC( Texas Romney +16 GOP -4 Colorado Obama +5 GOP -6 New Mexico Obama +10 GOP -7 Arizona Romney +9 GOP -1 Nevada Obama +7 GOP -5 California Obama +23 GOP -7! Florida Obama +1 GOP -3! Obama/Romney number represents winning candidate’s margin of victory! GOP number represents decline in GOP vote share between 2004 and 2012!
15. Each of these states that flipped saw consistent white votes, but larger and increasingly Democratic Hispanic votes Sources:(FEC,(CNN(Exit(Polls( Texas Romney +16 GOP -4 Colorado Obama +5 GOP -6 New Mexico Obama +10 GOP -7 Arizona Romney +9 GOP -1 Change in White and Hispanic Turnout Shares and GOP Vote Shares, 2004 to 2012! Nevada White Share -13 Hispanic Share +9 White Vote +1 Hispanic Vote -15 Florida White Share -3 Hispanic Share +2 White Vote +4 Hispanic Vote -17 Colorado White Share -8 Hispanic Share +6 White Vote -3 Hispanic Vote -7 New Mexico White Share -6 Hispanic Share +5 White Vote +0 Hispanic Vote -15
16. Each of these states that flipped saw consistent white votes, but larger and increasingly Democratic Hispanic votes Sources:(FEC,(CNN(Exit(Polls( Texas Romney +16 GOP -4 Colorado Obama +5 GOP -6 New Mexico Obama +10 GOP -7 Arizona Romney +9 GOP -1 Change in White and Hispanic Turnout Shares and GOP Vote Shares, 2004 to 2012! Nevada White Share -13 Hispanic Share +9 White Vote +1 Hispanic Vote -15 Florida White Share -3 Hispanic Share +2 White Vote +4 Hispanic Vote -17 Colorado White GOP Vote -8% Hispanic GOP Share +6% White Vote -3 Hispanic Vote -7 New Mexico White Share -6 Hispanic Share +5 White Vote +0 Hispanic Vote -15
17. Unless the GOP does a lot better among Hispanic and Asian voters, the next few Presidential elections will be very hard to win— and the path will only continue to get tougher. Republicans are winning a smaller and smaller share of these growing populations’ votes. What,these,trends,forebode,is,even,more,consequen5al…,
18. The trends that have increased the Asian and Hispanic vote in recent elections project to continue in the next few cycles 67%, 66%, 63%, 62%, 60%, 58%, 14%, 15%, 17%, 17%, 19%, 20%, 4%, 4%, 5%, 5%, 5%, 6%, 0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024, Non=Hispanic!White! Hispanic! Asian! U.S. Population by Race, 2004-2024 (Projected)! Source:(U.S.(Census( Projec.ons(produced(in(5Myear(intervals;( 2015(used(for(2016(and(2025(used(for(2024((
19. Projected into the Future, only immigration reform can solve these concerns. Source:(538( As,538’s,analysis,states,,Republicans’,best,chance,to,avoid, going,down,this,road,is,to,pass,immigraRon,reform:! “[This,populaRon,growth,model],would,produce,a,net,of,6.3,million,new,votes, for, Democrats, by, 2028…But, suppose, also, that,, as, a, result, of, immigraRon, reform,,the,Republicans,go,from,winning,28%,of,the,Hispanic,vote,and,24%,of, the, Asian, vote, to, 35%, of, each, group, by, 2028., That, would, shiB, about, 4.8, million,votes,back,to,the,G.O.P.,–,about,four,Rmes,more,than,it,lost,from,the, immigrants,becoming,ciRzens,and,voRng,predominantly,DemocraRc.”,
20. The fastest growing Hispanic populations are almost exclusively in states the GOP relies on in state and federal elections - this is NOT about blue states becoming easier for the Democrat party. Source:(Pew(Research(Center(tabula.ons(of(the(U.S.(Census( Growth,in,Hispanic,PopulaRon,Among,, 10,Fastest,Growing,Hispanic,States,,2000`2011, Hispanic,PopulaRon, State, 2000, 2011, %,Change, Alabama, 72,152! 186,209! 158%, South,Carolina, 94,652! 240,884! 154%, Tennessee, 116,692! 296,266! 154%, Kentucky, 56,922! 132,267! 132%, South,Dakota, 10,101! 23,158! 129%, Arkansas, 85,303! 190,192! 123%, North,Carolina, 377,084! 828,210! 120%, Mississippi, 37,301! 81,088! 117%, Maryland, 230,992! 488,943! 112%, Georgia, 434,375! 879,858! 103%, GOP office-holders in these 10 states: 7 of 10 Governors 15 of 20 U.S. Senators 51 of 72 U.S. Representatives!
21. And if the GOP loses Texas, none of those other states will even matter in national elections. Texas’s,Hispanic,populaRon,is,expected,to,surpass,its,white,populaRon,in,this,decade.,, Without,winning,the,state,,Republicans,would,have,lost,the,last,six,PresidenRal,elecRons., Sources:(The(New(Yorker,(Pew(Hispanic(Center( “If,Republicans,do,not,do,beeer,in,the,Hispanic,community,,in,a,few, short,years,Republicans,will,no,longer,be,the,majority,party,in,our, state…If,that,happens,,no,Republican,will,ever,again,win,the,White, House…We,won’t,be,talking,about,Ohio,,we,won’t,be,talking,about, Florida,or,Virginia,,because,it,won’t,maeer.,If,Texas,is,bright,blue,, you,can’t,get,to,270,electoral,votes.”,`,Ted,Cruz,,U.S.,Senator,(R`TX),
22. The,Consequences,of,this,Trajectory, Republicans,already,face,a,difficult,map,in, Presiden5al,races.,, , •  Short=Term:!today’s!“swing!states”!turn!blue! –  Solidly!blue!Southwest! –  Incredible!difficul;es!in!VA,!FL,!OH!&!NC! –  GA!&!AZ!become!swing!states! •  Medium=Term:! –  Senate!and!House!maps!follow!this!trajectory,!only! lagging!by!2=4!years! –  TX!becomes!a!swing!state!
23. Without passing immigration reform, Asian and Hispanic voters will not vote GOP no matter how much alignment there is on other issues—and could vote in even lower percentages if the GOP is seen as standing in the way.
24. 46%, 29%, 50%, 38%, 0%, 25%, 50%, Asian, American, Black, Hispanic, Non`Hispanic, White, Hispanic and Asian voters are both highly persuadable groups, with roughly half of each group not identifying with a party. Source:(Gallup(Daily(Tracking,(January—December(2012( %,of,Group,IdenRfying,as,PoliRcally,Independent!
25. Immigration reform is a gateway issue for Hispanics, making their alignment with other GOP policies irrelevant. “It,does,not,maeer,what,we,say,about,educaRon,,jobs,or,the,economy;,if,Hispanics, think,we,do,not,want,them,here,,they,will,close,their,ears,to,our,policies…., , Among,the,steps,Republicans,take,in,the,Hispanic,community,and,beyond,,we,, must,embrace,and,champion,comprehensive,immigraRon,reform.,If,we,do,not,,, our,Party’s,appeal,will,conRnue,to,shrink,to,its,core,consRtuencies,only.”, Sources:(La.no(Decisions(Poll,(conducted(among(600(La.no(voters(na.onwide(July( 8M12,(2013.(MOE(+/M(4.0%;(Republican(Na.onal(Commi`ee( What,are,the,most,important,issues,that,the,President,and,Congress,should,address?! 15% 19% 38% 58% Health care Education Economy/Jobs Immigration reform
26. Hispanics approve of Democrats’ job on immigration, but not the GOP’s—and will blame the GOP by a 4-to-1 margin if reform fails Approve,of,job,party,in, Congress,is,doing,handling, immigraRon,policy, Source:(La.no(Decisions(poll,(released(March(5th,(2013,(and( conducted(among(800(La.no(registered(voters;(MoE(+/M(3.5%( Will,blame,party,if, comprehensive,immigraRon, reform,is,not,passed, DEMOCRATS! REPUBLICANS! 15%! 60%! 61%! 25%!
27. Even among Hispanic voters inclined to vote Republican, the GOP will be deeply underwater if it stands in the way of reform 46%, 30%, 47%, 61%, 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, Favorable, Unfavorable, Favorability,of,the,GOP,Among,LaRnos,Who,Have,Voted,Republican, (49%,of,All,LaRno,Voters), Today, If,the,GOP, blocks,reform, Source:(La.no(Decisions(Poll,(conducted(among(600( La.no(voters(na.onwide(July(8M12,(2013.(MOE(+/M(4.0%.(
28. Latinos are willing to vote Republican, but GOP candidates who oppose reform stand little chance against supportive Democrats Source:(La.no(Decisions(poll,(released(March(5th,(2013,(and( conducted(among(800(La.no(registered(voters;(MoE(+/M(3.5%( VOTE, Scenario,A:,Republican,LESS,supporRve,of,reform,, Scenario,B:,Republican,MORE,supporRve,of,reform,,
29. By blocking immigration reform, the GOP risks losing Hispanic votes now and in the future Source:(La.no(Decisions(Poll,(conducted(among(600( La.no(voters(na.onwide(July(8M12,(2013.(MOE(+/M(4.0%.(
30. Appendix
31. The Asian American population is growing just as fast the Latino population - and voting more Democratic with each election 31%, 44%, 55%, 56%, 62%, 73%, 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, Presidential Elections, 1992-2012: % of Asian Americans voting Democrat! Sources:(U.S.(Census,(Voter(News(Service,(Na.onal(Elec.on(Pool,(CNN( 1%, 11%, 43%, 43%, 0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, U.S. Population Growth by Race, 2000-2010!
32. While the country’s white population is aging, Hispanics are heavily concentrated in younger age groups. Source:(Pew(Research(Center(
33. Every 30 seconds, two non-Hispanics reach retirement age and one Hispanic American turns 18. Source:(CNN(
34. Source:(American(Immigra.on(Council( 34%, 35%, 36%, 37%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, Asian/Hispanic,Youth,and,Newly,Naturalized,Immigrants,by, Share,of,All,Newly,Eligible,Voters,,2014`2020,, Over one-third of newly eligible 2014 voters will be either young Hispanics or Asians or recently naturalized immigrants In 2014, Asian/Hispanic youth and new citizens will form the majority of newly eligible voters in 100 Congressional Districts.
35. The Hispanic population is expected to continue growing rapidly for decades. Source:(U.S.(Census(
36. In Colorado, Florida, and Nevada the Hispanic share of the population is increasing even faster than the national average Change in Hispanic Population Share, 1990-2010 Nationwide: +7.3! Nevada +16.1! Colorado +7.8! Florida +10.3! Source:(U.S.(Census( In(Colorado,(for(example,(Obama( won(4(in(5(young(La.no(voters.(
37. Fast Facts •  La;nos!and!Asians!account!for!86%!of!the!popula;on!growth!between!2000=2010.! •  Between!1992!and!2024,!the!La;no!vote!share!will!increase!10X!and!the!Asian= American!vote!share!will!increase!6X.! ! •  La;nos!will!blame!the!GOP!by!a!4=1!margin!if!immigra;on!reform!fails!and!La;nos!who! vote!Republican!will!go!from!being!evenly!split!on!the!GOP!to!disapproving!by!a!2=1! margin.! ! •  The!GOP!share!of!the!Asian=American!vote!plummeted!from!69%!to!27%!between! 1992!and!2012.! ! •  Between!2004!and!2012,!the!Southwest!moved!from!Red!to!almost!en;rely!blue!and! VA!&!NC!became!swing!states.!In!2016,!on!this!trajectory,!these!are!all!blue!states!and! AZ!&!GA!are!the!new!swing!states.! ! •  Obama!got!4!in!5!votes!from!18=29!year!old!La;nos!in!Colorado.!