Ian Foster -- How to Grow the Economy by 10% Per Year

Economic growth is driven by the evolving interplay between innovation and automation: the former providing new products and services and the latter enabling cost-competitive and timely production and delivery. Information technology plays an increasingly central role in this process--a role that is only going to accelerate in the next decade as a result of advances in cloud and multicore computing. I discuss the challenges and opportunities inherent in a hyper-connected, hyper-automated world, with a particular emphasis on what they mean for the wonderful country of New Zealand.

Transcript

1. computationinstitute.org
   How to grow the economy
   by 10% per year
   Ian Foster, Computation Institute
   foster@anl.gov
   Multicore World 2013, Wellington, NZ
   

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2. computationinstitute.org
   Abstract
   Economic growth is driven by the evolving interplay
   between innovation and automation: the former
   providing new products and services and the latter
   enabling cost-competitive and timely production and
   delivery. Information technology plays an increasingly
   central role in this process--a role that is only going to
   accelerate in the next decade as a result of advances
   in cloud and multicore computing. I discuss the
   challenges and opportunities inherent in a hyper-
   connected, hyper-automated world, with a particular
   emphasis on what they mean for the wonderful
   country of New Zealand.
   

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3. computationinstitute.org
   Paul  Callaghan,  1947-­‐2012    
   h2p://bit.ly/hs3oaN  
   

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4. computationinstitute.org
   Japan
   Greece Spain
   Iceland
   Canada USA
   Ireland
   UK
   Sweden
   Italy
   Germany Belgium
   France
   Austria
   Netherlands
   Finland
   Switzerland
   Australia
   

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5. computationinstitute.org
   Japan
   New Zealand
   Greece Spain
   Iceland
   Canada USA
   Ireland
   UK
   Sweden
   Italy
   Germany Belgium
   Austria
   Netherlands
   Finland
   Switzerland
   Australia
   France
   

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6. computationinstitute.org
   0
   $100,000
   $200,000
   $300,000
   $400,000
   $500,000
   Needed
   for current
   per capita GDP
   200,000
   100,000 300,000
   Fonterra
   Fisher and Paykel Healthcare
   Total NZ Manufacturing
   Tourism
   Revenue per employee
   FTE of employment
   NZ Manufacturing Exports
   Food manufacturing
   Wine
   

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7. 100  companies  —  mash.hashbang.co.nz  
   

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8. computationinstitute.org
   Civilization advances
   by extending the number
   of important operations
   which we can perform
   without thinking about them
   Alfred North Whitehead (1911)
   

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   The three exponentials of
   the information revolution
   Communications
   Computation
   Storage
   Time    
   1.E+00  
   1.E+01  
   1.E+02  
   1.E+03  
   1.E+04  
   1.E+05  
   1.E+06  
   1.E+07  
   1.E+08  
   1.E+09  
   Capability  for  fixed  price  
   

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10. computationinstitute.org
    Communications
    Computation
    Storage
    1.E+00  
    1.E+01  
    1.E+02  
    1.E+03  
    1.E+04  
    1.E+05  
    1.E+06  
    1.E+07  
    1.E+08  
    1.E+09  
    Time    
    Capability  for  fixed  price  
    Price  for  fixed  capability  
    The three exponentials of
    the information revolution
    

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11. computationinstitute.org
    Paragon: 1996, 1024 cores, $10M
    2 Gflop/s
    for climate
    model code
    

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12. computationinstitute.org
    $898,921  from  4,965  backers  
    Parallella: 16 cores, 26 GFlops, $99
    (later  64)  
    

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    Exponentials à new paradigms
    

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    Exponentials à new paradigms
    Digital visual effects
    

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    Exponentials à new paradigms
    Digital visual effects
    Digital fabrication
    

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16. computationinstitute.org
    Additive manufacturing
    Massey  University  School  of  Design,  Wellington  
    

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17. computationinstitute.org
    Exponentials à new paradigms
    Digital visual effects
    Digital fabrication
    Industrial Internet
    

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18. computationinstitute.org
    The “Industrial Internet”
    “GE thinks that cheaper computing power 

    and sensors are now poised to usher in a 

    new era of big data for industry. Jeff 

    Immelt, GE’s CEO, has called the idea a 

    revolution, and the company’s top 

    economist has suggested it could help 

    increase worker productivity by as much as 

    1.5 percent a year.”
    h2p://www.technologyreview.com/news/509331/an-­‐internet-­‐for-­‐manufacturing/  
    

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    Factory of the future
    

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20. computationinstitute.org
    Exponentials à new paradigms
    Digital visual effects
    Digital fabrication
    Industrial Internet
    Data analytics
    

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21. computationinstitute.org
    

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    Exponentials à new paradigms
    Digital visual effects
    Digital fabrication
    Industrial Internet
    Data analytics
    Cloud computing
    

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24. computationinstitute.org
    24  
    Aotearoa  
    

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    SaaS  
    PaaS  
    IaaS  
    Software
    Platform
    Infrastructure
    Salesforce,
    Google,
    Animoto, …
    

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26. computationinstitute.org
    SaaS  
    PaaS  
    IaaS  
    Platform
    Infrastructure
    Amazon,
    GoGrid,
    Microsoft, …
    Software
    Salesforce,
    Google,
    Animoto, …
    

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27. computationinstitute.org
    SaaS  
    PaaS  
    IaaS  
    Platform
    Infrastructure
    Google,
    Microsoft,
    Amazon, …
    Software
    Salesforce,
    Google,
    Animoto, …
    Infrastructure
    Amazon,
    GoGrid,
    Microsoft, …
    

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29. computationinstitute.org
    You can now run a company 

    from a coffee shop
    

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30. computationinstitute.org
    Thinking outside the box
    for small and medium businesses
    •  Web presence
    •  Email (hosted Exchange)
    •  Calendar
    •  Telephony (hosted VOIP)
    •  Human resources and payroll
    •  Accounting
    •  Customer relationship management
    Software
    as a
    service
    SaaS
    

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31. computationinstitute.org
    •  Web presence
    •  Email (hosted Exchange)
    •  Calendar
    •  Telephony (hosted VOIP)
    •  Human resources and payroll
    •  Accounting
    •  Customer relationship management
    •  Data analytics
    •  Content distribution
    •  …
    Infrastructure/
    platform
    IaaS/
    PaaS
    Thinking outside the box
    for small and medium businesses
    Software
    as a
    service
    SaaS
    

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    32  
    

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    Most research occurs in small labs
    NSF grants 2007
    < $350,000
    80% of awards
    50% of grant $$
    Heidorn,  Library    Trends,  57(2),  2008  
    $1,000,000
    
    $100,000
    
    $10,000
    
    $1,000
    0 2000 4000 6000 8000
    

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34. computationinstitute.org
    Helping small labs prosper
    "Well, in our country," said Alice … 

    "you'd generally get to somewhere 

    else — if you run very fast for a 

    long time, as we've been doing.”
    "A slow sort of country!" said the 

    Queen. "Now, here, you see, it 

    takes all the running you can do, 

    to keep in the same place. If you 

    want to get somewhere else, you 

    must run at least twice as fast as that!"
    

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35. computationinstitute.org
    Need: A new way to deliver
    research infrastructure

    

    

    Frictionless
    Affordable
    Sustainable
    

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36. computationinstitute.org
    Thinking outside the box

    for small and medium laboratories
    •  Run experiments
    •  Collect data
    •  Manage data
    •  Move data
    •  Analyze data
    •  Run simulations
    •  Compare experiment
    with simulation
    •  Search the literature
    •  Share results
    •  Communicate
    •  Publish papers
    •  Find, configure, install
    relevant software
    •  Find, access, analyze
    relevant data
    •  Document research
    •  Order supplies
    •  …
    

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37. computationinstitute.org
    Thinking outside the box

    for small and medium laboratories
    •  Run experiments
    •  Collect data
    •  Manage data
    •  Move data
    •  Analyze data
    •  Run simulations
    •  Compare experiment
    with simulation
    •  Search the literature
    •  Share results
    •  Communicate
    •  Publish papers
    •  Find, configure, install
    relevant software
    •  Find, access, analyze
    relevant data
    •  Document research
    •  Order supplies
    •  …
    

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39. computationinstitute.org
    Thinking outside the box

    for small and medium laboratories
    •  Run experiments
    •  Collect data
    •  Manage data
    •  Move data
    •  Analyze data
    •  Run simulations
    •  Compare experiment
    with simulation
    •  Search the literature
    •  Share results
    •  Communicate
    •  Publish papers
    •  Find, configure, install
    relevant software
    •  Find, access, analyze
    relevant data
    •  Document research
    •  Order supplies
    •  …
    

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40. computationinstitute.org
    We asked ourselves:

    

    What if the research work flow
    could be managed as easily as…
    …our  pictures  
    …home  entertainment  
    …our  e-­‐mail  
    

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    What makes these services great?
    

    Great User Experience
    +
    High-performance 

    (but invisible) infrastructure
    

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42. computationinstitute.org
    We aspire (initially) to create a
    great user experience for

    research data management

    
    What would a “dropbox for
    science” look like?
    

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43. computationinstitute.org
    • Collect  
    • Move  
    • Sync  
    • Share  
    • Analyze  
    • Annotate  
    • Publish  
    • Search  
    • Backup  
    • Archive  
    BIG  DATA  
    …for
    

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44. computationinstitute.org
    • Collect  
    • Move  
    • Sync  
    • Share  
    • Analyze  
    • Annotate  
    • Publish  
    • Search  
    • Backup  
    • Archive  
    • Collect  
    • Move  
    • Sync  
    • Share  
     
    Capabilities delivered using 

    Software-as-Service (SaaS) model
    

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    Early  adop^on  is  encouraging  
    

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    Early  adop^on  is  encouraging  
    8,000  registered  users;  ~100  daily  
    >10  PB  moved;  ~1B  files  
    10x  (or  beJer)  performance  vs.  scp  
    99.9%  availability  
    EnPrely  hosted  on  Amazon  
    

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    A platform for integration
    

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48. computationinstitute.org
    Japan
    Greece Spain
    Iceland
    Canada USA
    Ireland
    UK
    Sweden
    Italy
    Germany Belgium
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Finland
    Switzerland
    Australia
    France
    New Zealand
    

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49. computationinstitute.org
    “Rich economies must 

    defend themselves by 

    remaining on the 

    cutting edge of 

    research, moving into 

    new and growing 

    branches, learning from 

    others, finding the right 

    niches, by cultivating 

    and using ability and 

    knowledge."
    

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50. computationinstitute.org
    R&D vs. GDP per capita, 1981-2009
    NZ  spends  1.3%  of  GDP  on  R&D,  vs.  OECD  average  of  2.3%  
    h2p://www.msi.govt.nz/assets/PoweringInnova^on.pdf  
    

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51. computationinstitute.org
    “Digital innovation and high-speed broadband 

    will fuel productivity growth across every 

    sector” — Stephen Conroy, Australia
    h2p://bit.ly/11fncbe  
    

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52. computationinstitute.org
    Economic growth via the knowledge economy

    100 companies, 100 inspired entrepreneurs
    Government commitment to strategy: “A country where talent wants to live”
    •  Commitment to education
    –  Tell stories of job opportunities for New Zealand kids at home
    –  Significantly boost science and mathematics education in schools
    –  Build school programs for entrepreneurship; university engineering & science capability
    –  Refine PBRF to reward commercialization work
    •  Commitment to R&D
    –  Boost science and engineering research from 0.52% GDP to 0.7% GDP
    –  Enhance R&D credits to the knowledge sector
    –  Compel CRIs to give IP share of benefits to employees and allow employee spinout
    –  Help establish incubators, business/engineering/science synergy
    •  Commitment to branding
    –  Understand the value of the conservation estate: livable cities, quality of life
    –  Identify and “call out” phony environmentalism and “science phobia”
    –  Market NZ as the “smart country, a place where talent wants to live”
    •  Commitment to leadership and vision
    –  Bipartisan vision
    –  Evidence basis for decisions—understand what works for us
    

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53. computationinstitute.org
    Thank  you  to  my  sponsors!  
    

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54. computationinstitute.org
    

    Questions?

    

    foster@uchicago.edu
    

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