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I Estimate This Talk is 20 Minutes (Give or take 10)

I Estimate This Talk is 20 Minutes (Give or take 10)

Madison Ruby, 2015

6b767d8a4c9910e007c122d81eb4de73?s=128

Noel Rappin

August 21, 2015
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  1. Intentionally Vague Slide Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby

    | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  2. How far do you live from an airport? Noel Rappin,

    Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  3. I live !" minutes from one Noel Rappin, Estimates and

    Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  4. If I'm in a car And the weather is good

    And it's not rush hour And I don't blow a tire Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  5. Failing any of these makes my trip longer Noel Rappin,

    Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  6. Estimation and Trust (I estimate this talk is 20 minutes,

    give or take 10) Noel Rappin, Table XI Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  7. Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com

    | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  8. I am an idiosyncratic crank about estimates Noel Rappin, Estimates

    and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  9. Are software developers uniquely bad at estimates? Noel Rappin, Estimates

    and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  10. Ever done a home remodel? Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust,

    Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  11. Big Dig Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby |

    2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  12. Initial cost estimate $5.8 billion !!!!!! Noel Rappin, Estimates and

    Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  13. Final cost: $21.93 billion And counting... !!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!! Noel Rappin,

    Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  14. It's not just our problem Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust,

    Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  15. Why do we need to estimate? Noel Rappin, Estimates and

    Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  16. What about #noestimates? Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby

    | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  17. I'll stop estimating when my clients stop asking Noel Rappin,

    Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  18. Communication Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015.

    http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  19. Estimating Projects: Communicates client investment Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust,

    Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  20. Estimating Projects: Allows us to gauge progress Noel Rappin, Estimates

    and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  21. Estimating Projects: Enables us to think about the problem Noel

    Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  22. Estimating Projects Badly: Sets unrealistic expectations Noel Rappin, Estimates and

    Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  23. Estimating Projects Badly: Encourages micromanaging Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust,

    Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  24. Estimating Projects Badly: Stops us from thinking about the problem

    Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  25. Estimating at the beginning is the worst Noel Rappin, Estimates

    and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  26. Like guessing time to the airport if you don't even

    know where the airport is Or if you even need to fly... Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  27. How can we estimate Effectively? Ethically? Noel Rappin, Estimates and

    Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  28. Estimating projects vs. Estimating features Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust,

    Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  29. Nobody really cares about estimating features Noel Rappin, Estimates and

    Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  30. They only care about when users can use stuff Noel

    Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  31. Feature estimates are only useful to get you to project

    estimates Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  32. A quick sidebar of agile terms Noel Rappin, Estimates and

    Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  33. Feature Story Iteration Point Velocity Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust,

    Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  34. Kind of a theory of ethical estimates Noel Rappin, Estimates

    and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  35. Estimates are estimates Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby

    | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  36. Estimates are probabilistic Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby

    | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  37. Chance of rain: 50% ☔ Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust,

    Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  38. What makes estimates bad? Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison

    Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  39. We can make bad assumptions Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust,

    Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  40. Misunderstanding the problem Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby

    | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  41. Scope Creep Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby |

    2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  42. Unknown complexity Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby |

    2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  43. Rework Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015.

    http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  44. Developers are optimists Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby

    | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  45. Sometimes there is pressure Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison

    Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  46. The map is not the terrain Noel Rappin, Estimates and

    Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  47. Can we do better? Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison

    Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  48. Focus on what we're good at Noel Rappin, Estimates and

    Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  49. Avoid false precision Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby

    | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  50. What goes into the amount of calendar time a feature

    takes? Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  51. Complexity of the task Skill of the developer Time on

    task Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  52. We are bad at estimating time on task Noel Rappin,

    Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  53. But it tends to be consistent over time Noel Rappin,

    Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  54. Skill of the developer Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison

    Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  55. We're also not that great at estimating this Noel Rappin,

    Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  56. And it's toxic Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby

    | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  57. But it tends to be consistent over time Noel Rappin,

    Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  58. We are pretty good at estimating complexity Noel Rappin, Estimates

    and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  59. Which is to say ! ⚪ ! Noel Rappin, Estimates

    and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  60. Estimate complexity and let time sort itself out Noel Rappin,

    Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  61. The humble point Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby

    | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  62. Time on task and relative skill average out Noel Rappin,

    Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  63. Which is like basing our airport estimate on: Distance to

    airport Average speed in the past Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  64. Consistency Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015.

    http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  65. Of team size Of story makeup Of environment Noel Rappin,

    Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  66. Decomposing the problem into similar size chunks helps Noel Rappin,

    Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  67. Requires Time Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby |

    2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  68. How do I estimate at the beginning of a project?

    Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  69. The worst way to estimate (except for all the other

    ways) Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  70. Fake it Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby |

    2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  71. Don't fake knowledge Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby

    | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  72. Don't spend time chasing precision Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust,

    Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  73. Realize that your output is a range Noel Rappin, Estimates

    and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  74. Split the tasks as best you can Noel Rappin, Estimates

    and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  75. Assign points 1: easy, less than a day 3: has

    complexity or risk 5: has a lot more complexity or risk Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  76. Don't spend a lot of time assigning points to a

    single task Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  77. Round up Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby |

    2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  78. At the beginning (and only at the begining) You can

    range estimate stories Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  79. Range of points Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby

    | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  80. load factor (5 - 7 hours per point) Noel Rappin,

    Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  81. Low point total * low factor High point total *

    high factor Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  82. points * factor = hours hours * rate = estimate

    Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  83. Present this with humility Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Madison

    Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  84. Understand that this will change Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust,

    Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  85. You are headed to the airport together Noel Rappin, Estimates

    and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  86. Thanks Image credits 4 http://www.constructionequipmentguide.com/ historical/big-dig/ Noel Rappin, Estimates and

    Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap
  87. Noel Rappin (@noelrap) Table XI http://www.noelrappin.com/trdd http://pragprog.com/book/nrtest2 http://www.patreon.com/noelrap Noel Rappin,

    Estimates and Trust, Madison Ruby | 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap