UK energy consumers acceptability of a heat deferral approach to mitigating peak electricity demands

Presentation to the 9th Annual ERBE - LoLo Conference for Early Career Researchers
Striking the Balance: Demand Reduction vs Supply Decarbonisation

Transcript

1. 8/11/22 Candidate Code: F034385 1 Demand Reduction Supply Decarbonisation Integrating Supply & Demand 9th Annual ERBE-LoLo Conference for Early Career Researchers Striking the Balance: Demand Reduction vs Supply Decarbonisation Candidate Code: F034385 1 Candidate Code: F034385 Demand Reduction Supply Decarbonisation Integrating Supply & Demand 9th Annual ERBE-LoLo Conference for Early Career Researchers Striking the Balance: Demand Reduction vs Supply Decarbonisation Dr Philip Turner, Dr Tom Rushby, Dr Stephanie Gauthier, Professor Patrick James, Dr Massimiliano Manfren, Prof. AbuBakr Bahaj Energy and Climate Change Division, University of Southampton UK energy consumers acceptability of a heat deferral approach to mitigating peak electricity demands
2. 2 WOULD YOU ALLOW SOMEONE ELSE TO CONTROL YOUR HEATING Ref: Khan, C. (2020) I'm all fired up to beat my boyfriend in the thermostat war, Guardian [Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/dec/04/beat-my-boyfriend-in-the-thermostat-war] Energy and Climate Change Division – www.energy.soton.ac.uk
3. 3 “Domestic users accounted for almost a third (32.7 per cent) of total electricity demand in 2020.” Ref: Martin, V. (2021) Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES): Chapter 5: Electricity [Available at www.gov.uk/government/statistics/electricity-chapter-5-digest-of-united-kingdom-energy-statistics-dukes] UNDERSTANDING THE PROBLEM - CURRENT STATE Energy and Climate Change Division – www.energy.soton.ac.uk
4. 4 UNDERSTANDING THE PROBLEM- FUTURE STATE The increase in heat pumps in combination with electric vehicles could lead to a 200-300% increase in UK’s annual electricity demand creating serious capacity issues for our electricity system. Will household approve of their energy company remotely adjusting their heating system and altering the household temperature to better suit the capacity of the electricity network and maintain substations and feeders within limits. Energy and Climate Change Division – www.energy.soton.ac.uk
5. 5 KEY QUESTIONS Is deferrable heat a viable approach? What is the response and how should the message be framed? Does a household stated acceptance match reality? How do various parties differ? Early adopters vs mass roll outs Purchased heating system (new build) vs inherited heating system Level of energy literacy Energy and Climate Change Division – www.energy.soton.ac.uk
6. 6 POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF A DEFERRAL APPROACH If found to be acceptable, this approach can provide benefits across scale; To the UK in terms of energy security and meeting carbon targets To the Distributed Network Operators through reducing local demand For heat pump suppliers by demonstrating added grid value Reducing the bills of households, avoiding peaking dynamic tariffs £ Energy and Climate Change Division – www.energy.soton.ac.uk
7. 7 BACKGROUND SURVEY – DISTRIBUTION Demographic Household Heating. Thermal comfort Energy literacy Personality Energy and Climate Change Division – www.energy.soton.ac.uk 5,500 Survey responses 20% 20% 130,000 customers 27,000 Consenting customers Survey deployed in April 2021 to 26,754 Igloo Energy customers for a 2 week period. Survey obtained a 20% response rate (N=5,500).
8. 8 BACKGROUND SURVEY – FINDINGS What is the set temperature for your main living space Responses Temperature (ºC) Energy and Climate Change Division – www.energy.soton.ac.uk What is your main source of heating? Homeowner Rental Inherited Installed Built home 23 35 20 58 35% 31% 10% 60% 20% 19%
9. 9 BACKGROUND SURVEY – POTENTIAL AREA OF CONCERN Would you approve of an energy company remotely adjusting your heating system? Would people in your community expect you to allow for your heating to be remotely adjusted? Energy and Climate Change Division – www.energy.soton.ac.uk 27% 28% 33% 28% What level of heat deferral would be at acceptable? 29% 41% 27% 38% Overnight (11pm-6am) Evening (5pm-11pm) Midday (11am-5pm) Morning (6am-11am) With a degree Without a degree EDUCATION Would you approve of an energy company remotely adjusting your heating system? ENERGY LITERACY Correct response Incorrect response CLIMATE CHANGE Very concerned Strong concern Somewhat to no concern TOP METRIC FOR ENERGY SUPPLIER Reducing carbon footprint Cost of bill Control & understanding
10. 10 FOCUS GROUPS – METHOD Focus groups focus on four main questions • Reason for either accepting or not accepting heat deferral • If heat deferral was implemented what if any limits would you set (temperature, time or length of deferral) • Are there any questions about heat deferral that need to be addressed • How would you describe heat deferral to a friend or a neighbour Energy and Climate Change Division – www.energy.soton.ac.uk Participants contacted 552 Withdrawn 46 Completed doodle poll 161 Attended focus group 124 Participation rate 29% Attendance rate 77%
11. 11 FOCUS GROUPS – VIDEO Energy and Climate Change Division – www.energy.soton.ac.uk
12. Energy and Climate Change Division – www.energy.soton.ac.uk 12 FOCUS GROUPS – VIDEO IMPACT Would you approve of an energy company remotely adjusting your heating system? 50% 16% 54% 32% 30% 21% What level of heat deferral would be acceptable? 0°C 0.5-1.5°C 1.5-3°C 3-5°C 57% 27% 64% 32% 49% 34% How long would you allow your level of heating to be adjusted for? 27% 32% 30% 26% 36% 26% 0 mins 30 mins 60 mins 1-2 hrs +2 hrs
13. 13 FOCUS GROUPS – INITIAL FINDINGS Polls during the session have shown the video to have had a positive impact for a sizeable number, with participants emphasising the importance of explaining the need for such a measure and how the override function allays fear of a loss of control in order to assist the wider community through softening the curve. Those opposed point towards a mistrust in government and energy companies (often lumping various elements under the same umbrella). A need for personal gain (what is in it for me) and a desire to have full control of ones own home. Interesting topics of debate have included the impact on the elderly or disabled (regarding need for heat and potential difficulty in overriding with the digital divide and limited mobility), fairness (if I heat my home to 19 and someone else heats their home to 23 should we be treated equally) and whether to apply the carrot or the stick (should we be incentivised to defer through financial return or access to a better tarrif, or penalised if we always override) AN ENSLIGHSMAN’S HOME IS HIS CASTLE Energy and Climate Change Division – www.energy.soton.ac.uk
14. 14 NEXT STEPS Interviews Follow up interviews with focus group participants on household heating profiles and thermal comfort/discomfort behaviour. Modelling & simulation Calculation of duration of the heat deferral event and of the amount of heat that can be effectively deferred for each dwelling based on archetypal characteristics. Development of normalized load profiles for the different archetypes to compute aggregate load profiles. Field trial deployment Examine how householders with heat pumps experience and react to heat deferral. Phase 1: test temperature/time limits of heat deferral by running a series of deferral events of differing lengths. Phase 2: test response to tariff/reward structures Energy and Climate Change Division – www.energy.soton.ac.uk 24:00 00:00 12:00 24:00 00:00 12:00
15. 15 Energy and Climate Change Division University of Southampton Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences School of Engineering Boldrewood Innovation Campus Southampton, SO16 7QF www.energy.soton.ac.uk