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Sacoto & Lindemer: The RFS at 20

Sacoto & Lindemer: The RFS at 20

Juan Sacoto & Kevin Lindemer
S&P Global
Tue., February 18, 2025
10:30 am Session: "The RFS at 20: Decades of Transforming Agriculture"

Transcript

  1. Juan Sacoto Global Head of Agribusiness Consulting Kevin Lindemer Head

    of Downstream Consulting Americas The RFS at 20: Two Decades of Transforming Agriculture February 2025
  2. © 2024 by S&P Global 2 Source: S&P Global Commodity

    Insights The growth of US ethanol demonstrates the success of the RFS; without it, US ethanol production would have been 5 to 6 billion gallons, or a blending ratio of approximately 3.8% National Ethanol Conference 0 4 8 12 16 20 1990/91 1995/96 2000/01 2005/06 2010/11 2015/16 2020/21 16.0 5.6 US ethanol production - Actual US ethanol production - No-RFS US Ethanol Production and Impact from the RFS Billion gallons Maturing Developing Shock Period PRE-RFS
  3. © 2024 by S&P Global 3 National Ethanol Conference The

    RFS expanded US corn production, changed corn demand structure and influenced corn prices, especially in the first 10 years following 2005 US Corn Supply and Demand Billion Bushels US Corn Price: Historical vs. No-RFS Scenario Nominal US$ per bushel Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
  4. © 2024 by S&P Global 4 Source: S&P Global Commodity

    Insights National Ethanol Conference The RFS greatly boosted corn cash receipts through higher prices and production levels while also contributing to farmland value appreciation1 and farm sector wealth buildup US Cash Receipts for Corn: Historical vs. No-RFS Scenario Billion US$ US Farmland Value US$ per acre 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1990/91 1995/96 2000/01 18 2005/06 2010/11 2015/16 2020/21 80 59 +333% +219% Corn cash receipts Corn cash receipts, No-RFS Cumulatively $270 billion between 2005/06-2023/24 1 It should be noted that the RFS has been one of the important drivers of farmland value appreciation since 2005, but it is not the only one. Other factors include cropland availability, competition from suburban development, farmland as an alternative investment, and commodity price increases driven by other factors such as growing soybean exports to China 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 2,790 2,060 Corn Belt US Average RFS, 2005
  5. © 2024 by S&P Global 5 The RFS played a

    crucial role in retaining farmland in production and introduced profound changes to the US crop mix US Crop1 Planted Acreage Million Acres National Ethanol Conference 1 Including Corn, Sorghum, Barley, Oats, Ray, Soybean, Sunflowers, Canola, Peanuts, Wheat, Cotton, Sugar Crops, Rice, Hay, Potatoes, Dry edible beans, Tobacco 2 USDA's Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) was initiated in 1985, with data available starting from that year Source: USDA and S&P Global Commodity Insights RFS, 2005 0 100 200 300 400 1980/81 1985/86 1990/91 1995/96 2000/01 2005/06 2010/11 2015/16 2020/21 -7% -41 million acres or -11% +1.2 million acres or +0.4% Corn Soybeans / Oilseeds Wheat CRP2 Total Principal Crops1 Pre-2005 Trend Scenario
  6. © 2024 by S&P Global 6 The RFS also supported

    the development of ethanol exports and reduced GHG emissions US Ethanol Exports Billion Gallons per Year1,2 National Ethanol Conference Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights 2005/06 2010/11 2015/16 2020/21 1 The data is based on the corn crop year, which runs from September 1 to August 31 2 The export data includes both undenatured ethanol (HS code 2207.10) and denatured ethanol (HS code 2207.20), for the 2023/24 corn crop year 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2000/01 2005/06 2010/11 2015/16 2020/21 41 Avoided GHG emissions - No RFS Avoided GHG emissions - Actual RFS impact on GHG emission saving through ethanol Million Metric Tons From 2005/06-2023/24, cumulative GHG savings: ✓ US ethanol industry: 788 MMT ✓ RFS impact through ethanol: 485 MMT, ~ one year of Brazil’s total emissions
  7. © 2024 by S&P Global 7 $140 crude oil $27

    crude oil 2000 – 2007 - rising oil demand and prices - falling US domestic production 2007 – 2012 - falling demand from high oil prices - continued falling demand from the financial crises 2012 - 2019 - shale boom begins - crude oil export ban lifted - gasoline demand begins to recover - US becomes a net exporter of gasoline 2019 - 2024 - COVID 19 demand reduction National Ethanol Conference RFS, through ethanol, reduced US gasoline net imports: over 14 billion gallons lower in 2024 and over 239 billion gallons lower since EPACT was passed US Gasoline Net Imports Billion Gallons per Year 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Gasoline net imports Gasoline net imports without ethanol Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
  8. © 2024 by S&P Global 8 Source: EIA Ethanol from

    the RFS, maturing gasoline demand, and the shale boom shifted the USGC (PADD 3) market to a net exporter of refined products, crude oil, and ethanol US Gulf Coast (PADD 3) Net Exports Thousand barrels per day National Ethanol Conference 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 Crude Gasoline Diesel Ethanol (right axis)
  9. © 2024 by S&P Global 9 Source: S&P Global Commodity

    Insights Ethanol blended gasoline in the USGC spot market is lower price than BOB gasoline in most years BOB gasoline minus 10% ethanol blended BOB gasoline Cents per gallon National Ethanol Conference 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 USGC RBOB - E10 USGC CBOB - E10 Financial Crisis Crude oil oversupply COVID pandemic
  10. Q&A

  11. © 2024 by S&P Global 11 Appendix: About Us CI

    Consulting is the consulting arm of S&P Global Commodity Insights Division, drawing on the full depth and breadth of the company & its industry sector expertise Upstream Solutions Gas, Power & Climate Research Solutions Fuels, Chemicals & Resource Solutions Market Reporting & Trading Solutions CI Consulting Market solutions and services
  12. © 2024 by S&P Global 12 CI Consulting integrates expansive

    datasets, unrivaled industry expertise, and commercial analytics into fit-for-purpose solutions Trusted Foundations Analytics GIS Technical Software Leading provider of independent benchmarks Global coverage and relevance High quality, curated datasets Tools and Models World-class Data Data, Tools, & Analytics Commercial and Technical Experts Our Expertise Oil Markets, Downstream and Refining Upstream Chemicals, Bio-feedstocks and Recycled Plastics Agribusiness Energy Transition LNG, Renewable Gas and Power Industries Served Strategic Solutions North America 90 EMEA 90 Latin America 62 APAC 96 4,000+ Worldwide S&P CI employees (Research, Data Analysts, etc.) 350+ Consultants Our global team builds tailored analytics on data and technical expertise to address our clients’ commercial challenges and strategic decisions Appendix: About Us
  13. © 2024 by S&P Global 13 Our global consulting practices

    are aligned with industry verticals and interlinked via cross-sector Energy Transition expertise Oil Markets & Downstream Chemicals Agribusiness Power & Renewables Gas, LNG & Low Carbon Gases Upstream Energy Transition Appendix: About Us
  14. © 2024 by S&P Global 15 S&P Global Commodity Insights

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