OODA.MODELS.CODE.VELOCITY - Velocity 2015

Presented at Velocity 2015 in Santa Clara.

More info and video in blog post: https://medium.com/@aneel/all-models-are-wrong-d0d95da49027

Like most things that get pop-ified, the details are glossed over and essential elements of the original work are lost. Ideas are worthless without execution; relying on the pop version of an idea will handicap any attempt at its execution. The talk is partly an exposition, distillation, and application of Boyd’s original ideas (particularly as described in Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War) – and partly an exhortation to get as close as possible to original sources, because the lessons there are rich.

Transcript

1. OODA.MODELS.CODE.VELOCITY Aneel Lakhani
2. NOT QUALIFIED TO GIVE THIS TALK Marketing Analyst Product Infra Arch Net Eng Sys Admin NOC Op Tech Support
3. HE IS USAF Colonel & Military Strategist John Richard Boyd
4. OODA OBSERVE ORIENT DECIDE ACT
5. ECOLOGICAL PSYCHOLOGY AFFORDANCES Empirical Psychologist James J. Gibson
6. A KNOB AFFORDS TWISTING, AND PERHAPS PUSHING, WHILE A CORD AFFORDS PULLING. AN AFFORDANCE [IS] THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACTION, AND IS NOT A PROPERTY OF EITHER AN ORGANISM OR ITS ENVIRONMENT ALONE.
7. COGNITION GRASPS AFFORDANCES ACTION UNLOCKS AFFORDANCES
8. OODA == COGNITION-ACTION
9. OODA : COGNITION-ACTION :: __ : AFFORDANCE
10. HOW DO WE GO FROM OBSERVATION TO ORIENTATION?
11. HOW DO WE GO FROM ORIENTATION TO DECISION?
12. WE BUILD MODELS
13. WE PUT OBSERVATIONS INTO MODELS
14. WE [TEND TO] IGNORE OBSERVATIONS THAT DON’T FIT OUR MODELS
15. WE ORIENT WITH AND TO MODELS
16. WE MAKE DECISIONS [ONLY] WITHIN THE FRAMEWORKS OF OUR MODELS
17. WE MODEL ALL THE THINGS
18. FASTER!!! [CARGO CULT VERSION]
19. OPERATE INSIDE THE
    [ADVERSARY’S]
    TIME SCALE
20. 1 Adversary 1: OODA 2 Adversary 1: OODA 3 Adversary 1: OODAOODAOODA 4 Adversary 1: OODA^X Adversary 2: OOD_ Adversary 2: OO__ Adversary 2: OOD_OO_O_ Adversary 2: OOD_O_D_A_O
21. MOVING FORWARD IN TIME
22. PARTS OF THE LOOP ARE NOT EQUAL
23. OBSERVE & ACT
    VS
    ORIENT & DECIDE
24. FIRST-ORIENTER DISADVANTAGE Law & Finance Professor Frank Portnoy
25. DELAYING DECIDE-ACT OFTEN MEANS COMING OUT AHEAD
26. MAPPING WONDER, PEACE, WAR BUSINESS CYCLES Researcher of Strategy & Mapmaker Simon Wardley
27. MULTIPLE PRACTICES, CULTURES, AND STAGES OF EVOLUTION COEXIST
28. CAUSING AN ADVERSARY’S MODEL TO BE “INVALID” IS THE PRIMARY MEANS OF “WINNING”
29. TAKING OUR MODELS TOO SERIOUSLY IS A RISK WAITING TO BE EXPLOITED (OR BLOWN UP)
30. BLACK SWANS ANTIFRAGILITY Professor of Risk Engineering N. N. Taleb
31. BLACK SWANS LIE OUTSIDE OUR MODELS
32. [IMMOVABLE] MODELS CREATE FRAGILITY
33. SCALES OF ABSTRACTION PROMISE THEORY Architect of CFEngine Mark Burgess
34. EVERY MODEL HAS A HALF LIFE
35. SO WHAT?
36. THERE’S AN INHERENT ADVANTAGE WHEN EVERYTHING IS CODE
37. OBSERVATION CAN BE INSTRUMENTED SCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY
38. ACTION CAN BE AUTOMATED SCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY
39. ORIENTATION AND DECISION CAN BE SHORT-CIRCUITED [FOR KNOWN MODELS] SCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY
40. TIME CAN BE REALLOCATED TO ORIENTING AND DECIDING IN NOVEL CONTEXTS SCALING TO HUMAN CAPACITY
41. CAUTION: ALL MODELS ARE WRONG, SOME ARE USEFUL [IN SOME CONTEXT]
42. CAUTION: OUR MODELS ARE BIASED BY OUR BIASES
43. CAUTION: MODELS ARE NOT SCALE-INVARIANT Scales: number, size, resolution, frequency, dimensionality, time, rate of change
44. CAUTION: SAFE MODELS BECOME RISKY AT DIFFERENT SCALES / CONTEXTS
45. KNOW THE CONTEXT
46. SEEK MODEL INVALIDATION
47. ORIENTATION AND DECISION Through streaming analytics, exploring metrics in real time, as they’re created, building meaningful (composite) signals, creating leverage for Orient and Decide. Invalidating models daily.
48. READ PRIMARY SOURCES (OR FEWEST DEGREES FROM)
49. READING blog.gardeviance.org - kitchensoap.com
50. THANKS Aneel @aneel - aneel@signalfx.com
51. ADVANCED MONITORING PLATFORM FOR MODERN APPLICATIONS https://signalfx.com
52. IMAGE CREDITS • J.J. Gibson: Cornell University Library • Frank Partnoy: Startup Grind • N.N. Taleb: NY Times • Mark Burgess: markburgess.org • Book cover images from Amazon • Coffee: me • Me: not me