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Three reasons why Kepler's discoveries will continue for a decade

Three reasons why Kepler's discoveries will continue for a decade

A talk presented by Geert Barentsen at the 2018 Wetton Workshop. Held at Christ Church College, Oxford, on June 19th, 2018.

Geert Barentsen

June 19, 2018

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  1. 3 Three reasons
 why Kepler’s discoveries
 will continue for a

    decade A talk presented by Geert Barentsen (Kepler GO Director)
 at the Wetton Workshop in Oxford on June 19th, 2018. 
 @GeertHub - [email protected] - https://keplerscience.arc.nasa.gov
  2. The distribution of planet radii is bimodal Photoevaporation appears to

    herd small planets into either bare cores or mini-Neptunes.
 Fulton+ 2017 Also: Owen & Wu 2017
  3. Atmospheric erosion is a function of incident flux High-precision planet

    radii obtained via asteroseismology reveal a slope in the planet radius bimodality.
 Van Eylen+ 2017
  4. The number of planets discovered across open clusters is starting

    to constrain the timescales of inward planet migration. Rizzuto+ in prep Also: Mann+ 2017 1 10 100 1000 Age (Myr) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Relative Planet Occurence (P < 20 d) Migration? Kepler Upper Scorpius Pleiades Hyades & Praesepe Close-in planets appear to be less common around young stars
  5. Also: Rebull+ 2016a,b, 2017,
 Somers+ 2017,
 Barnes+ 2016,
 Stauffer+ 2016,

    Nardiello+ 2015,
 and others. Late M-dwarfs spin down
 in a radically different way
  6. Model prediction: Matt et al. (2015), 653 Myr Late M-dwarfs

    spin down
 in a radically different way Also: Rebull+ 2016a,b, 2017,
 Somers+ 2017,
 Barnes+ 2016,
 Stauffer+ 2016,
 Nardiello+ 2015,
 and others.
  7. Transients can have the shape of a Type Ia SN

    but show a rise time of just 2 days The median rise time of Type Ia SN is ~17 days?! 
 Rest+ 2018
  8. Oscillation frequencies in the brightness of active galaxies appear to

    be predictive of the central black hole mass Smith+ 2018
  9. These results were all published within the past year …

    nine years after Kepler’s launch!
  10. 1. The data analysis methods continue to improve. 2. Our

    computational capabilities are growing faster than the data set. 3. The field is increasingly valuing community software and tutorials.
  11. Electronic “rolling band” noise limits Kepler’s sensitivity, but progress is

    being made towards modeling the varying background, e.g. using 2D Gaussian Processes. 
 Hedges+ in prep Our ability to model Kepler’s background systematics is improving
  12. The intra-pixel response function of Kepler’s CCDs is being measured

    to an unprecedented precision A new measurement apparatus was designed which uses small spots of light across a range of wavelengths. 
 Vorobiev+ in prep This opens the door towards high-precision PSF-fitting photometry with Kepler.
  13. Our understanding of data caveats, and the tools to identify

    them, are improving Video show the negative crosstalk signal produced by a bright asteroid on a different CCD channel. 
 Movie credit: Hugh Osborn
  14. Identification of 92 dipper stars using a Random Forest Classifier

    Careful feature engineering allows a classifier to provide a complete and unbiased census of stars showing occultations by accretion columns.
 Hedges+ 2018
  15. Transit shape validation of Kepler-80 g and 90 i using

    a Convolutional Neural Network Shallue+ 2018
  16. In optical astronomy, the “deluge of data" is often out-paced

    by the “deluge of computing power”.
  17. The number of pixels telemetered by NASA’s exoplanet surveys doubles

    every 28 months Also: MOST, CoRoT, Plato, Cheops, Ariel, and others. Assumptions detailed at https://github.com/barentsen/tech-progress-data
  18. Ground-based optical surveys show a pixel rate which doubles every

    44 months Caveat: radio astronomers are significantly worse off. Assumptions detailed at https://github.com/barentsen/tech-progress-data
  19. The number of transistors in CPUs has continued to double

    every 24 months (Moore’s original law)
  20. The speed of the world’s fastest supercomputer doubles every 13

    months The speed of research internet backbones doubles every 16 months Data sources detailed at https://github.com/barentsen/tech-progress-data
  21. The cost of storage halves every 28 months Storage bus

    speeds double every 35 months Data sources detailed at https://github.com/barentsen/tech-progress-data
  22. We are working with MAST to simplify bulk analyses of

    Kepler data in the cloud Smith+ 2018
  23. Key issue: the number of astronomers only doubles every ~13

    years Caveat: assumes the number of IAU members is a proxy for the number of astronomers.
  24. Your brain size doubles every 1.5 million years Caveat: brain

    size is a flawed proxy for intelligence.
  25. Software was key to enable Kepler’s resurrection: ‣ Field &

    target selection tool : github.com/KeplerGO/K2fov ‣ Asteroid selection tool: github.com/KeplerGO/K2ephem ‣ Motion systematics correction: github.com/KeplerGO/PyKE ‣ Raw data parser: github.com/KeplerGO/kadenza ‣ Quicklook tool: github.com/KeplerGO/K2flix ‣ Quality control: github.com/KeplerGO/k2-quality-control ‣ Mission website: github.com/KeplerGO/KeplerScienceWebsite ‣ Publication tracker: github.com/KeplerGO/kpub Also: community pipelines, e.g.: ‣ K2SC: github.com/OxES/k2sc ‣ EVEREST: github.com/rodluger/everest
  26. Citizen science matters In 2013, volunteers of the Zooniverse brought

    the unusual dips in the light curve of “Tabby’s Star” to attention.
  27. We benefit from treating the public as our peers In

    2017, students from the Thacher School in California obtained 20k observations over 135 nights; finding that the dips are chromatic.
  28. Important ongoing conversations: - how to credit the authors of

    open software & data? - how to provide robust careers and funding opportunities to support scientists? - how to address the stress related to the fear of “getting scooped” in the era of openness.
  29. 3 I feel excited about the future of our field,

    because of: 1. new data analysis methods; 2. our computational capabilities; 3. community software and tutorials.