Ethnographic Futures

The emerging practice of ethnographic futures research.

Transcript

1. Ethnographic Futures: Identifying Weak Signals in the Environment Around Us. Scott Smith Changeist, LLC
2. Changeist is a foresight and strategic design lab. We blend traditional futures and innovation methods with new approaches in research and design to help organizations navigate complex futures.
3. The world is full of signals that are not evenly distributed.
4. They exist in layers + overlaps They exist in layers, overlaps, and sometimes in isolation.
5. They can be found in behaviors and interactions.
6. Signals also exist in new products and services.
7. Foresight needs a way to break out of the matrix and add dimension and texture to “flat” data and models.
8. A way to look where people live and interact, find these signals of the future, and make sense of the emerging patterns.
9. We are looking for the bow wave. Image: Flickr/sjdunphy
10. Ethnography is a “qualitative method aimed to learn and understand cultural phenomena which reflect the knowledge and system of meanings guiding the life of a cultural group.” -Clifford Geertz
11. Key traits: Long-term, embedded, empathetic
12. Ethnographic Futures Research coined in 1970s by Stanford professor Robert Textor. “An adaptation of the spirit & method of cultural anthropology & ethnography to the needs & constraints of futures research.” Image: Flickr/kendoman26
13. Both academic and accessible
14. Adds richness to static models
15. And avoids bias.
16. Trends and Insights Ethnographic Futures Innovation Scouting Future Fabbing Monitoring new innovations, new capabilities and new ideas to understand what comes next. Embedding in culture to find signals of the future from human behavior. Scanning the horizon for emerging patterns, behaviors, needs and barriers. Assembling the pieces to model possible futures and opportunities that emerge.
17. Personal: Need states Values Barriers Contextual: Communication & Interaction Environmental: Driving Forces STEEP Trends Horizon Scanning Scenarios Values Models: CLA Spiral Dynamics Design Research?
18. Develop Trend Data (collection) Frame Hypotheses (synthesis) Ethnographic Observation (validation and extension) Develop Strategic Themes (conclusion) As a lightweight process for real- world validation
19. Develop Trend Data (collection) Develop Framework for cross- coding (synthesis) Ethnographic Observation (collection) Develop Mapping Structure (conclusion) As a second stream of input data to model people-centric futures
20. Case study: Future of Indian Cities examining the role of technology, ingenuity and self- improvement may change the face of the slums
21. Signs of support and aid
22. Supply meets aspirational demand
23. Exits clearly signed
24. Scale of challenges
25. Internal economies
26. Reinforced rich personas used for roadmapping and innovation.
27. Look here...
28. But also here...
29. here...
30. here...
31. And here.
32. Scott Smith Changeist, LLC www.changeist.com @changeist