probability that I will flip tails, given that I am flipping an ecologist's quarter (p(tail=0.6))? • 2) What is the likelihood that I am flipping an ecologist's quarter, given the flip(s) that I have observed? Px |=0.6 L=0.6| x
@1.2 flips an ecologist's quarter n times, and plots the likelihood function. • Vary the number of flips (n), re-run, and see what happens. • Vary the true θ parameter and see what happens. • Show your neighbour your likelihood plot and see if they can guess θ. How about n?
product of the individual likelihoods of each observation. • The likelihood function carries all information contained in the data relevant to inference about parameters. • Likelihood is a REALATIVE measure, and gets smaller as more data is observed. • The 'best fitting' parameter value is the one that maximizes this function.
fitting model parameters to data. → “What are the parameter values which are most likely to have generated my data?” • For many models, the maximum likelihood value can not be found analytically. • In these cases, we use numerical optimization. >?optim
can I determine the likelihood function for the way I think the world works (aka my model)? • A Model is just a mathematical representation of a process, often including both Deterministic and, Stochastic components. • The likelihood function comes straight from the specification of the model.
the model parameters. (@2.4) • Compute the approximate confidence interval and plot the likelihood surface (@2.5) • Plot the fitted model prediction and (stochastic) confidence intervals over the data. (@2.6)
alternative models. (@3.1) • Try to write down the mathematical formulation of each model. • Compute the AIC for each of the three competing models. (@3.2) • Compute the model weights for each of the three competing models. (@3.3) • Which is the best fitting model? • How will these values vary if we were to add more competing models to our set? • Plot the predictions of each model (@3.4)
the individual likelihoods of each observation. • Likelihood is a REALATIVE measure, and gets smaller as more data is observed. • The 'best fitting' parameter value is the one that maximizes the likelihood function (MLE). • Numerical optimization can be used to find the MLE. • Competing models can be compared using AIC, which is based on each model's MLE.