7. biases

philosophy of mind, 2018

Transcript

1. Cognitive Illusions
   how we know what isn’t so
   George Matthews
   Spring 2016
   

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2. How does the mind work?
   get sensory inputs
   identify situation
   recall goals
   compare goals and situation
   figure out how to reduce gap
   execute actions
   cognition
   respond
   the common sense model
   

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3. How the mind really works . . .
   Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
   

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4. How the mind really works . . .
   system 1
   everything’s normal
   Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
   

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5. How the mind really works . . .
   system 1
   everything’s normal
   jump to conclusions
   create storyline
   go with the flow
   things make sense
   Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
   

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6. How the mind really works . . .
   system 1
   everything’s normal
   jump to conclusions
   create storyline
   go with the flow
   things make sense
   business as usual
   Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
   

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7. How the mind really works . . .
   system 1
   everything’s normal
   jump to conclusions
   create storyline
   go with the flow
   things make sense
   business as usual
   system 2
   pay attention!
   WTF!
   Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
   

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8. How the mind really works . . .
   system 1
   everything’s normal
   jump to conclusions
   create storyline
   go with the flow
   things make sense
   business as usual
   system 2
   pay attention!
   WTF!
   look closely
   calculate carefully
   check for mistakes
   make plans
   Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
   

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9. How the mind really works . . .
   system 1
   everything’s normal
   jump to conclusions
   create storyline
   go with the flow
   things make sense
   business as usual
   system 2
   pay attention!
   WTF!
   look closely
   calculate carefully
   check for mistakes
   make plans
   deliberate action
   Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
   

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10. How the mind really works . . .
    system 1
    everything’s normal
    jump to conclusions
    create storyline
    go with the flow
    things make sense
    business as usual
    system 2
    pay attention!
    WTF!
    look closely
    calculate carefully
    check for mistakes
    make plans
    deliberate action
    I’m tired.
    Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
    

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12. bananas vomit
    

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13. system 1 at work
    ! involuntary bodily responses
    

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14. system 1 at work
    ! involuntary bodily responses
    ! assumptions
    

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15. system 1 at work
    ! involuntary bodily responses
    ! assumptions
    temporal sequence
    

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16. system 1 at work
    ! involuntary bodily responses
    ! assumptions
    temporal sequence
    causal connection
    

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17. system 1 at work
    ! involuntary bodily responses
    ! assumptions
    temporal sequence
    causal connection
    ! altered expectations
    

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18. system 1 at work
    ! involuntary bodily responses
    ! assumptions
    temporal sequence
    causal connection
    ! altered expectations
    ! coherent associations – a storyline is
    generated that explains everything
    

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20. WASH
    

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22. EAT
    

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24. SO_P
    

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25. If a bat and a ball together cost $1.10, how much does
    the ball cost if the bat is $1.00 more than the ball?
    

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26. If a bat and a ball together cost $1.10, how much does
    the ball cost if the bat is $1.00 more than the ball?
    If 5 machines can make 5 widgets in 5 minutes, how
    long will it take for 100 machines to make 100
    widgets?
    

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27. If a bat and a ball together cost $1.10, how much does
    the ball cost if the bat is $1.00 more than the ball?
    If 5 machines can make 5 widgets in 5 minutes, how
    long will it take for 100 machines to make 100
    widgets?
    If the lily ponds growing on a pond double in area
    every day, and it takes 48 days to cover the whole
    pond, on what day will the lily pads cover half of the
    pond?
    

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28. Common cognitive biases
    ! Priming: I’ve heard it before, it must be true!
    

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29. Common cognitive biases
    ! Priming: I’ve heard it before, it must be true!
    ! Familiarity effect: The more I see of Donald Trump, the more I
    like him!
    

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30. Common cognitive biases
    ! Priming: I’ve heard it before, it must be true!
    ! Familiarity effect: The more I see of Donald Trump, the more I
    like him!
    ! Dramatic instances effect: I’ll pay more for insurance against
    death by terrorism than against death in general.
    

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31. Common cognitive biases
    ! Priming: I’ve heard it before, it must be true!
    ! Familiarity effect: The more I see of Donald Trump, the more I
    like him!
    ! Dramatic instances effect: I’ll pay more for insurance against
    death by terrorism than against death in general.
    ! Confirmation bias: I keep seeing confirmation of my beliefs!
    

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32. Mary was a finance major who was an
    outspoken advocate for women’s rights in
    college. Which is more likely to be true
    about her?
    

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33. Mary was a finance major who was an
    outspoken advocate for women’s rights in
    college. Which is more likely to be true
    about her?
    A. She works at a bank.
    

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34. Mary was a finance major who was an
    outspoken advocate for women’s rights in
    college. Which is more likely to be true
    about her?
    A. She works at a bank.
    B. She is a feminist who works at a bank.
    

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35. Mary was a finance major who was an
    outspoken advocate for women’s rights in
    college. Which is more likely to be true
    about her?
    A. She works at a bank.
    B. She is a feminist who works at a bank.
    

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36. Mary was a finance major who was an
    outspoken advocate for women’s rights in
    college. Which is more likely to be true
    about her?
    A. She works at a bank.
    B. She is a feminist who works at a bank.
    The Conjunction Fallacy
    

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37. When the players on the team do really
    well and I praise them for their efforts,
    they do less well afterward. But when
    they do poorly and I yell at them, their
    playing soon improves. Thus positive
    reinforcement does not work, but
    yelling does.
    

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38. When the players on the team do really
    well and I praise them for their efforts,
    they do less well afterward. But when
    they do poorly and I yell at them, their
    playing soon improves. Thus positive
    reinforcement does not work, but
    yelling does.
    The Base Rate Fallacy
    

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40. A study of the rates of a certain form of
    cancer has found that:
    

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41. A study of the rates of a certain form of
    cancer has found that:
    A. Some rural counties have lower than
    average rates of this cancer among their
    residents.
    

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42. A study of the rates of a certain form of
    cancer has found that:
    A. Some rural counties have lower than
    average rates of this cancer among their
    residents.
    B. Some rural counties have higher than
    average rates of this cancer among their
    residents.
    

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43. A study of the rates of a certain form of
    cancer has found that:
    A. Some rural counties have lower than
    average rates of this cancer among their
    residents.
    B. Some rural counties have higher than
    average rates of this cancer among their
    residents.
    How can we explain this?
    

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44. A study of the rates of a certain form of
    cancer has found that:
    A. Some rural counties have lower than
    average rates of this cancer among their
    residents.
    B. Some rural counties have higher than
    average rates of this cancer among their
    residents.
    How can we explain this?
    Insensitivity to Sample Size
    

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46. Suppose I flip a fair coin and get 5 heads
    in a row. Which is the more likely result on
    the next flip?
    

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47. Suppose I flip a fair coin and get 5 heads
    in a row. Which is the more likely result on
    the next flip?
    heads
    

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48. Suppose I flip a fair coin and get 5 heads
    in a row. Which is the more likely result on
    the next flip?
    heads
    tails
    

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49. Suppose I flip a fair coin and get 5 heads
    in a row. Which is the more likely result on
    the next flip?
    heads
    tails
    Gambler’s Fallacy
    

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50. Which of the following sequences of coin
    flips is more likely?
    

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51. Which of the following sequences of coin
    flips is more likely?
    H H H H T T T T
    

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52. Which of the following sequences of coin
    flips is more likely?
    H H H H T T T T
    H T H T T H H T
    

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53. Which of the following sequences of coin
    flips is more likely?
    H H H H T T T T
    H T H T T H H T
    H T H T H T H T
    

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54. Which of the following sequences of coin
    flips is more likely?
    H H H H T T T T
    H T H T T H H T
    H T H T H T H T
    Clustering Illusion
    

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55. ! What are the odds that two people in the
    room have the same birthday?
    

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56. ! What are the odds that two people in the
    room have the same birthday?
    ! What are the odds that two people among
    100 do not have a common birthday?
    

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57. View Slide