7. biases

philosophy of mind, 2018

Transcript

1. Cognitive Illusions how we know what isn’t so George Matthews Spring 2016
2. How does the mind work? get sensory inputs identify situation recall goals compare goals and situation figure out how to reduce gap execute actions cognition respond the common sense model
3. How the mind really works . . . Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
4. How the mind really works . . . system 1 everything’s normal Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
5. How the mind really works . . . system 1 everything’s normal jump to conclusions create storyline go with the flow things make sense Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
6. How the mind really works . . . system 1 everything’s normal jump to conclusions create storyline go with the flow things make sense business as usual Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
7. How the mind really works . . . system 1 everything’s normal jump to conclusions create storyline go with the flow things make sense business as usual system 2 pay attention! WTF! Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
8. How the mind really works . . . system 1 everything’s normal jump to conclusions create storyline go with the flow things make sense business as usual system 2 pay attention! WTF! look closely calculate carefully check for mistakes make plans Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
9. How the mind really works . . . system 1 everything’s normal jump to conclusions create storyline go with the flow things make sense business as usual system 2 pay attention! WTF! look closely calculate carefully check for mistakes make plans deliberate action Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
10. How the mind really works . . . system 1 everything’s normal jump to conclusions create storyline go with the flow things make sense business as usual system 2 pay attention! WTF! look closely calculate carefully check for mistakes make plans deliberate action I’m tired. Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
12. bananas vomit
13. system 1 at work ! involuntary bodily responses
14. system 1 at work ! involuntary bodily responses ! assumptions
15. system 1 at work ! involuntary bodily responses ! assumptions temporal sequence
16. system 1 at work ! involuntary bodily responses ! assumptions temporal sequence causal connection
17. system 1 at work ! involuntary bodily responses ! assumptions temporal sequence causal connection ! altered expectations
18. system 1 at work ! involuntary bodily responses ! assumptions temporal sequence causal connection ! altered expectations ! coherent associations – a storyline is generated that explains everything
20. WASH
22. EAT
24. SO_P
25. If a bat and a ball together cost $1.10, how much does the ball cost if the bat is $1.00 more than the ball?
26. If a bat and a ball together cost $1.10, how much does the ball cost if the bat is $1.00 more than the ball? If 5 machines can make 5 widgets in 5 minutes, how long will it take for 100 machines to make 100 widgets?
27. If a bat and a ball together cost $1.10, how much does the ball cost if the bat is $1.00 more than the ball? If 5 machines can make 5 widgets in 5 minutes, how long will it take for 100 machines to make 100 widgets? If the lily ponds growing on a pond double in area every day, and it takes 48 days to cover the whole pond, on what day will the lily pads cover half of the pond?
28. Common cognitive biases ! Priming: I’ve heard it before, it must be true!
29. Common cognitive biases ! Priming: I’ve heard it before, it must be true! ! Familiarity effect: The more I see of Donald Trump, the more I like him!
30. Common cognitive biases ! Priming: I’ve heard it before, it must be true! ! Familiarity effect: The more I see of Donald Trump, the more I like him! ! Dramatic instances effect: I’ll pay more for insurance against death by terrorism than against death in general.
31. Common cognitive biases ! Priming: I’ve heard it before, it must be true! ! Familiarity effect: The more I see of Donald Trump, the more I like him! ! Dramatic instances effect: I’ll pay more for insurance against death by terrorism than against death in general. ! Confirmation bias: I keep seeing confirmation of my beliefs!
32. Mary was a finance major who was an outspoken advocate for women’s rights in college. Which is more likely to be true about her?
33. Mary was a finance major who was an outspoken advocate for women’s rights in college. Which is more likely to be true about her? A. She works at a bank.
34. Mary was a finance major who was an outspoken advocate for women’s rights in college. Which is more likely to be true about her? A. She works at a bank. B. She is a feminist who works at a bank.
35. Mary was a finance major who was an outspoken advocate for women’s rights in college. Which is more likely to be true about her? A. She works at a bank. B. She is a feminist who works at a bank.
36. Mary was a finance major who was an outspoken advocate for women’s rights in college. Which is more likely to be true about her? A. She works at a bank. B. She is a feminist who works at a bank. The Conjunction Fallacy
37. When the players on the team do really well and I praise them for their efforts, they do less well afterward. But when they do poorly and I yell at them, their playing soon improves. Thus positive reinforcement does not work, but yelling does.
38. When the players on the team do really well and I praise them for their efforts, they do less well afterward. But when they do poorly and I yell at them, their playing soon improves. Thus positive reinforcement does not work, but yelling does. The Base Rate Fallacy
40. A study of the rates of a certain form of cancer has found that:
41. A study of the rates of a certain form of cancer has found that: A. Some rural counties have lower than average rates of this cancer among their residents.
42. A study of the rates of a certain form of cancer has found that: A. Some rural counties have lower than average rates of this cancer among their residents. B. Some rural counties have higher than average rates of this cancer among their residents.
43. A study of the rates of a certain form of cancer has found that: A. Some rural counties have lower than average rates of this cancer among their residents. B. Some rural counties have higher than average rates of this cancer among their residents. How can we explain this?
44. A study of the rates of a certain form of cancer has found that: A. Some rural counties have lower than average rates of this cancer among their residents. B. Some rural counties have higher than average rates of this cancer among their residents. How can we explain this? Insensitivity to Sample Size
45. 10110101 00111011 11011101 11101001 11011111 11010111 00110111 11010010 00011001 01101101 10100110 00110110 01110110 01000100 11111011 11011010 11010000 01001111 10011001 00010010 11001111 10100110 01011100 11101111 00100111 11001010 11110100 11011111 00111010 01101010 01000100 10111101 00101011 01011100 01000001 00000111 11001001 01110101 01110001 11010100 11011110 10100011 11101110 10101000 01100010 10010001 01011100 11000111 01100000 11100001 00011000 10001100 01110110 00100101 11100111 10110101 10010001 11011000 11010001 11111100 10110011 00010001 11001101 01011000 10001100 10001100 01010000 10110101 01101110 00101001 00010110 00010001 01011001 11101100 01101011 11011011 11110001 01101011 11000001 00001111 11101000 10000011 01011001 01111101 01011000 11111111 11110110 01111110 01101110 11101100 10100101 10111101 01101001 00010000 01011011 01000010 01010010 11011101 11111100 11000001 01001100 00101111 11101111 01011011 10110101 00011011 00011111 10011000 01111011 11110010 10101001 00011000 10000000 01011110 11110101 11010111 10101001 10010110 00001100 00010010 11101100 10011100 10110111 11000011 00100101 11011001 01110011 11011000 10010111 11001100 00010111 00000110 11000111 10110010 00100011 01100011 00111110 00001111 11101101 10011110 10000011 10000111 01011110 00110010 01010001 01100010 01011001 01000110 01000101 10001011 11000011 10111010 10010001 11101000 11101111 10110010 11111110 00001001 01000100 01011101 10001001 01010001 11101101 10010001 01111100 00011110 11011100 00111001 11101111 10101101 10010000 10011000 00110000 00001101 10001000 00111000
46. Suppose I flip a fair coin and get 5 heads in a row. Which is the more likely result on the next flip?
47. Suppose I flip a fair coin and get 5 heads in a row. Which is the more likely result on the next flip? heads
48. Suppose I flip a fair coin and get 5 heads in a row. Which is the more likely result on the next flip? heads tails
49. Suppose I flip a fair coin and get 5 heads in a row. Which is the more likely result on the next flip? heads tails Gambler’s Fallacy
50. Which of the following sequences of coin flips is more likely?
51. Which of the following sequences of coin flips is more likely? H H H H T T T T
52. Which of the following sequences of coin flips is more likely? H H H H T T T T H T H T T H H T
53. Which of the following sequences of coin flips is more likely? H H H H T T T T H T H T T H H T H T H T H T H T
54. Which of the following sequences of coin flips is more likely? H H H H T T T T H T H T T H H T H T H T H T H T Clustering Illusion
55. ! What are the odds that two people in the room have the same birthday?
56. ! What are the odds that two people in the room have the same birthday? ! What are the odds that two people among 100 do not have a common birthday?