Science and trust in the post truth era

How can we figure out what is true? Who can we trust? What does Buddhism have to do with fighting fake news?

Transcript

1. Science and Trust in the Post-Truth Era Kristin Lindquist, Rationally kristin@rationally.io www.rationally.io
2. Oxford Dictionary declared ‘post-truth’ the word of the year for 2016.
3. It has been a long time coming.
4. No one group has a monopoly on unscientific beliefs.
5. Why are we so truth-challenged?
6. Let’s play a game… Science or Fiction!
7. Which is the fiction? Our most creative thoughts come when we're walking. After 30 years of dimming, the planet's surface is brightening. As the world warms, vegetation could double the frequency of extremely hot days experienced. 1 2 3
8. Our most creative thoughts come when we're walking. After 30 years of dimming, the planet's surface is brightening. As the world warms, vegetation could double the frequency of extremely hot days experienced. http://phys.org/news3996.html#jCp http://phys.org/news4035.html http://phys.org/news4028.html
9. Problem with Truth #1 We don’t intuitively know what’s true.
10. Problem with Truth #2 There is so much to know on any given topic.
11. Problem with Truth #3 The truth is complex.
12. Problem with Truth #4 Statistics is Weird
13. Birthday Paradox: We have the same birthday? What are the odds?!?
15. So we rely on experts.
16. Who is a trustworthy expert on vaccines? Lucija Tomljenovic, PhD Researcher, Immunology Paul Offit, MD Pediatrician, Immunology
17. Lucija Tomljenovic, PhD Researcher, Immunology • She claims that there is an vaccine-autism link, that benefit of vaccination is over-stated. She’s against mandatory vaccines and a key member of the anti-vaxx movement. • Has published in Journal of Inorganic Biochemistry, Immunologic Research, Annals of Medicine (peer-reviewed, good reputation). She’s anti-vaccine.
18. “That’s the problem with vaccines. When they work, absolutely nothing happens. Nothing. Parents go on with their lives, not once thinking that their child was saved [from countless diseases].” “It doesn't even make sense that vaccines would cause autism, given what we know about autism.” Paul Offit, MD Pediatrician, Immunology He’s pro-vaccine.
19. How do we decide whom to trust?
21. Ironically… the public actually trusts scientists.
22. But there is no public consensus on the scientific consensus.
23. Liberal* perspective on scientific consensus Conservative* perspectives
24. And there is a more critical problem here...
25. Science is “a process by which to derive the principles of nature via empirical investigation and constant testing.”* Dogma is “principles laid down by an authority as incontrovertibly true.”** *Oxford Dictionary **Paraphrase of Lawrence M. Krauss’ definition
26. Science is “a process by which to derive the principles of nature via empirical investigation and constant testing.” Dogma is “principles laid down by an authority as incontrovertibly true.” ? If we rely on trust in experts... … are we sufficiently distinguishing science from dogma?
27. What to do?
28. Interact with Science as a Method #1 Develop Meta- Cognition #2 Debate Wisely and Kindly #3
29. Rule #1 Whenever possible, interact with Science as a Method not as a dogma.
30. “Science says…”
31. There’s no “science says” in the scientific method.
32. 1. Visitors ask questions. 2. Users submit evidence from peer-reviewed studies. 3. User vote on the quality and relevance of evidence.
36. Rule #2 Develop Meta-Cognition Recognize your mind’s tendency to lead you astray.
37. Confirmation Bias
38. Post hoc ergo propter hoc
40. Illusory Truth People know how they feel about an event before they know that the event occurred.* Source
41. Illusory Superiority I am more informed. I am more moral. I am better at my job. … and I’m a way better driver. XKCD
43. Illusory Certainty “Certainty and similar states of ‘knowing what we know’ arise out of involuntary brain mechanisms that, like love or anger, function independently of reason.” Robert A. Burton, MD On Being Certain
44. The Bias Blind Spot The majority of people* think they are less susceptible to bias than the average American. * (of study participants) http://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/pdf/10.1287/mnsc.2014.2096
45. Cognitive Dissonance is Uncomfortable. (and that’s okay)
46. Source: Somebody at the seminar
48. “I can live with doubt and uncertainty and not knowing. I have approximate answers and possible beliefs and different degrees of certainty about different things… It doesn’t frighten me.” Richard Feynman Theoretical Physicist @ CalTech
49. Rule #3 Debate Wisely and Kindly
52. Avoid the Familiarity Backfire Effect Skeptical Science
53. Don’t Overwhelm. Skeptical Science
54. Fill the Gap. Skeptical Science
55. **This quote is attributed to many of different people. And I’m not sure if Buddha is really the OG empiricist.
56. In Summary Interact with Science as a Method #1 Develop Meta- Cognition #2 Debate Wisely and Kindly #3
57. The End Want to say hi? kristin@rationally.io