Snotelier

Transcript

1. snotelier automated avalanche danger summaries Mark Gallup Tom Baldwin Insight

   Data Science Willamette Pass Ski Patrol
2. None

3. ? ?

4. measure snowpack properties once per hour 75 sites in WA,

   81 in OR ? ? SNOTEL

5. measure snowpack properties once per hour 75 sites in WA,

   81 in OR ? ? SNOTEL

6. measure snowpack properties once per hour 75 sites in WA,

   81 in OR ? ? SNOTEL ? ?

7. measure snowpack properties once per hour 75 sites in WA,

   81 in OR ? ? SNOTEL ? ? snotelier automatic avalanche danger summaries from SNOTEL data

8. feature engineering

9. Feature Value 1-day snowfall 0.0 3-day snowfall 8.0 max rate

   of snowfall 4.25 1-day water equivalent -0.1 3-day water equivalent 0.8 max rate of water equiv. 0.3 temperature during storm 31.0 temp. trend during storm 0.0 feature engineering condense time series data to set of relevant features

10. labeling + validation human-generated zone advisories from Northwest Avalanche Center

    fit with logistic regression model

11. algorithm

12. algorithm

13. who benefits? • Vastly expanded coverage area relative to NWAC

    (now covers OR) • Generated summary easier to digest • Tool for existing avalanche forecasters to prioritize areas

14. Tom Baldwin http://snotelier.com • Physics PhD 2015, University of Oregon

    • Semiconductor optics in high magnetic fields • Running, climbing, snowboarding baldwint.com