Snotelier

A system for climbers and backcountry skiiers to preview avalanche danger from home.

Transcript

1. snotelier
   automated avalanche
   danger summaries
   Mark Gallup
   Tom Baldwin
   Insight Data Science
   Willamette Pass Ski Patrol
   

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3. ?
   ?
   

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4. measure snowpack properties once per hour
   75 sites in WA, 81 in OR
   ?
   ?
   SNOTEL
   

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5. measure snowpack properties once per hour
   75 sites in WA, 81 in OR
   ?
   ?
   SNOTEL
   

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6. measure snowpack properties once per hour
   75 sites in WA, 81 in OR
   ?
   ?
   SNOTEL
   ?
   ?
   

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7. measure snowpack properties once per hour
   75 sites in WA, 81 in OR
   ?
   ?
   SNOTEL
   ?
   ?
   snotelier
   automatic avalanche danger summaries
   from SNOTEL data
   

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8. feature engineering
   

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9. Feature Value
   1-day snowfall 0.0
   3-day snowfall 8.0
   max rate of snowfall 4.25
   1-day water equivalent -0.1
   3-day water equivalent 0.8
   max rate of water equiv. 0.3
   temperature during storm 31.0
   temp. trend during storm 0.0
   feature engineering
   condense time series data
   to set of relevant features
   

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10. labeling +
    validation
    human-generated zone advisories
    from Northwest Avalanche Center
    fit with logistic regression model
    

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11. algorithm
    

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12. algorithm
    

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13. who benefits?
    • Vastly expanded coverage area relative
    to NWAC (now covers OR)
    • Generated summary easier to digest
    • Tool for existing avalanche forecasters
    to prioritize areas
    

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14. Tom Baldwin
    http://snotelier.com
    • Physics PhD 2015,
    University of Oregon
    • Semiconductor optics in
    high magnetic fields
    • Running, climbing,
    snowboarding
    baldwint.com
    

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