Crowded Space

Crowded Space, a course of space debris and near Earth objects.
North Carolina State University
Osher Lifelong Learning Institute
Spring 2021 LLI-1-480

Transcript

1. TONY RICE NCSU LLI-1-480 SPRING 2021 Space Debris Crowded Space JANUARY 25, 2021 speakerdeck.com/tonyrice/crowded-space
2. Jan 25 Orbital Debris Orbital Mechanics 101, debris angers, notable events, monitoring What we'll talk about Jan 25 Orbital Debris Orbital Mechanics 101, debris angers, notable events, monitoring Feb 1 Natural Objects How ISS pass apps work, Trojans, Asteroids, Comets & other NEOs Feb 8 What is being done now & in the future Space Law, cleanup & servicing missions Feb15 Wrap-Up & general astronomy Q&A
3. Crowded Space Slides: speakerdeck.com/ tonyrice About me: about.me/tonyrice WRAL Blog: wral.com/ weather/blog/1028424/
4. Orbital Mechanics 101
5. • Rockets launch more "down" (range) than "up" • "Fast" is more of a goal than "up" • Space isn't that far away (~100 miles) • Parabolas bad, ellipses good. • 17,500 mph magic number Orbital Mechanics 101: launch misunderstandings
6. Orbital Mechanics 101: Types of orbits Encyclopedia Britannica
7. WikiMedia
8. • Both natural (meteoroid) and artificial (man-made) particles. • Meteoroids are in orbit about the Sun, while most artificial debris are in orbit about the Earth. Hence, the latter are more commonly referred to as orbital debris. • Orbital debris is any man-made object in orbit about the Earth which no longer serves a useful function. • Non-functional spacecraft • Abandoned launch vehicle stages (rocket bodies) • Mission-related debris • Fragmentation debris (events) What is Orbital Debris? Office of Orbital Debris Management media briefing , 28 Apr 2009
10. • Nearly every launch in the 1960s • 1961-1963: West Ford Needles (1961-1963) • 1966-04-30 Rio Brazil, Apollo SA-5 launched in 1964 • 1973—05-14 Skylab, mostly in Indian Ocean, sparsely populated are of western Australia • 1978-01-24 Cosmos 954 USSR Navy satellite small nuclear reactor over Canadian arctic • 1997-01-22 Delta2 debris hits woman in Turkey OK • 2001-01-21 Delta2 PAM-D reentry, motor casing Saudia Arabia, titanium pressure tank near Seguin TX, main prop tank near Georgetown TX • 2000-06-04 Compton Gamma Ray Observatory, intentionally deorbited into Pacific SE of Hawaii • 2001-03-23 Mir deorbit, ~1,500 fragments plunged into Pacific near Fiji. Taco Bell promotion • 2003-01-01 Columbia disaster spread debris process 28k sq mi across eastern TX / western LA, 80k+ pieces recovered • 2007 China destroys weather satellite, produces 900 bits of debris • 2008-02-20 USN shutdown of defunct spy satellite • 2009-10-01 Iridium 33 vs Cosmos 2251, 2,000 bits of debris • 2009 March ISS red conjunction • SpaceX StarLink Notable Events
11. • Artificial Ionosphere launched 1961,1962,&1963 • Ring of 480 million 17.8 mm copper needles (dipole antennae) • USSR protested "US Dirties Space" • 36 clumps of needles still tracked by ODM (Mar 2020) West Ford Needles
12. Office of Orbital Debris Management media briefing , 28 Apr 2009
13. Office of Orbital Debris Management media briefing , 28 Apr 2009
14. NASA Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook NASA/SP-20205011318 Space Surveillance Network (SSN) tracking stations LSSC Lincoln Space Surveillance Center MSSS Maui Space Surveillance System AFSSSS Air Force Space Surveillance System
15. Office of Orbital Debris Management media briefing , 28 Apr 2009
16. Office of Orbital Debris Management media briefing , 28 Apr 2009
17. • < 1 cm Shields can be effective • 1 - 10 cm: disable or disrupt a mission Usually too small to track, too small to shield against • > 1 cm : Potentially catastrophic Conjunction assessments and collision avoidance manuevers Tracked by U.S. Space Surveillance Network Collision Risks
18. Collision Avoidance Maneuvers (2008) spacecraft date Body 2 Aura 2008-06-26 TRIAD 1 debris Cloudsat 2008-07-27 Delta rocket body TDRS 5 2008-10-01 Cosmos 1888 (USSR) PARASOL (France) 2008-10-19 Fengyan-1C debris (China) Office of Orbital Debris Management media briefing , 28 Apr 2009
19. • 1988 NASA implemented a conjunction assessment and collision avoidance process for human spaceflight beginning with STS-26 in 1988. Initially based upon simple miss distance and a 4-km by 10-km by 4-km ellipsoid (football-shaped volume "keep-out" space around the Shuttle). • 1998 more sophisticated and higher fidelity conjunction assessment process for human spaceflight missions jointly developed by NASA & DoD Before launch of the first element of ISS • 2005 Similar process adopted selected robotic Earth Observation System satellites in LEO and TDRSS in GEO • 2007, extended the conjunction assessment process to all NASA maneuverable satellites within LEO and within 200 km of GEO. NASA Procedural Requirements 8715.6 Conjunction Assessment
20. • Solar activity • Atmospheric drag Factors impacting conjunction predictions
21. • NASA Astromaterials Research & Exploration Orbital Debris Program Office https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/ • Process for Limiting Orbital Debris NASA-STD-8719.14 • https://www.space-track.org/ Other Resources
22. What we'll talk about Jan 25 Orbital Debris Orbital Mechanics 101, debris angers, notable events, monitoring Feb 1 Natural Objects How ISS pass apps work, Trojans, Asteroids, Comets & other NEOs Feb 8 What is being done now & in the future Space Law, cleanup & servicing missions Feb15 Wrap-Up & general astronomy Q&A Feb 1 Natural Objects How ISS pass apps work, Trojans, Asteroids, Comets & other NEOs
23. Gravity (2013) Warner Brothers
24. 1 25544U 98067A 21030.50133291 .00003153 00000-0 65512-4 0 9995 
 2 25544 51.6465 303.7326 0002392 315.8456 215.8385 15.48928800 267250 2021-01-30 12:01:55.0.1634 Satellite # Intl Designator change in revs/day orbit decay drag term counter checksum orbits per day right ascension Inclination anomaly eccentricity perigee eccentricity
25. Asteroids and Comets
26. Meteors
27. Meteors
28. Meteors
29. 2021 Major Meteor Showers Shower Active Peak ZHR Moon Age Quadrantids (QUA) Dec 28-Jan 07 Jan 03 120 19 Lyrids (LYR) Apr 14-Apr 30 Apr 22 18 10 eta Aquarids (ETA) Apr 20-May 26 May 05 60 24 Southern delta Aquarids (SDA) Jul 17-Aug 12 Jul 30 20 21 Perseids (PER) Jul 22-Aug 23 Aug 12 100 4 Orionids (ORI) Oct 03-Nov 12 Oct 21 23 16 Leonids (LEO) Nov 03-Dec 02 Nov 18 15 14 Geminids (GEM) Nov 13-Dec 22 Dec 14 120 10 Ursids (URS) Dec 16-Dec 26 Dec 22 10 1 International Meteor Organization and Masahiro Koseki. ZHR = (cpen)/t C = % of sky obscured by clouds P = correction for light pollution (from limiting magnitude of 6.5) E = correction for elevation (from Zenith) N = number actually observed T = time in hours
30. 2021 Major Meteor Showers Shower ZHR Quadrantids (QUA) 120 Lyrids (LYR) 18 eta Aquarids (ETA) 60 Southern delta Aquarids (SDA) 20 Perseids (PER) 100 Orionids (ORI) 23 Leonids (LEO) 15 Geminids (GEM) 120 Ursids (URS) 10 Images courtesy of Addison-Wesley ZHR = cpen/t C = % of sky obscured by clouds P = correction for light pollution (from limiting magnitude of 6.5) E = correction for elevation (from Zenith) N = number actually observed T = time in hours
31. NEOS Near Earth Object: comets and asteroids nudged by gravity of nearby planets into Earth's neighborhood. Comets: "dirty iceballs" Mostly ice, formed in outer solar system Asteroids: "icy dirtballs" Mostly rock, formed in warmer inner solar system NEA: Near Earth Asteroid PHA: Potentially Hazardous Asteroid
32. Blue: near Earth asteroids Orange: main-belt asteroids Animation: NASA/JPL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfvo-Ujb_qk
33. Center for Near Earth Object Studies NASA/JPL Known NEAs 888 1km or larger 9530 140m or larger 24927 all sizes 90% Source: NASA/JPL CNEOS, 2020-01-31
34. How NEAs are discovered
35. Asteroid 2008 TC3 Discovered October 6, 2008 by Richard Kowalski via a 1.5m telescope on Mt. Lemmon in Tucson, AZ Predicted to enter Earth's atmosphere the following day above Northdan Sudan at 0236Z, releasing energy equivalent 1 kiloton of TNT. Observed by Meteosat 8 & a KLM pilot over Chad Event Atmospheric Entry Airburst Detonation Altitude (km) 65.4 37 Observed Event Time (UT) 02:45:40 02:45:45 Predicted Event Time (UT) 02:45:38.45 02:45:45.13 Observed Long./Lat. (deg.) 31.4E. 20.9N 32.2E 20.8N Predicted Long./Lat. (deg.) 31.412E 20.933N 32.140E 20.793N Source: NASA/JPL CNEOS, METEOSAT
36. Close Approaches (next few days) Object Close-Approach (CA) Date CA Distance Minimum (LD | au) Estimated Diameter (2020 TB12) 2021-Feb-01 05:50 ± < 00:01 6.75 | 0.01734 110 m - 240 m (2016 CL136) 2021-Feb-01 22:26 ± < 00:01 13.75 | 0.03534 140 m - 310 m (2020 SO) 2021-Feb-02 21:39 ± < 00:01 0.59 | 0.00151 7.6 m - 17 m (2018 PN22) 2021-Feb-05 11:23 ± 01:16 12.69 | 0.03261 8.4 m - 19 m (2018 CH2) 2021-Feb-05 19:10 ± 6_21:14 1.32 | 0.00339 6.7 m - 15 m Source: NASA/JPL CNEOS, 2020-01-31
37. 10 closest approaches Object Close-Approach (CA) Date CA Distance Minimum (LD | au) Estimated Diameter 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) 2029-Apr-13 21:46 ± < 00:01 0.10 | 0.00025 310 m - 680 m (2019 EH1) 2032-Mar-01 00:41 ± 9_10:13 0.05 | 0.00012 2.5 m - 5.7 m (2014 HB177) 2034-May-06 09:06 ± 2_17:06 0.21 | 0.00053 6.4 m - 14 m (2007 UD6) 2048-Oct-18 01:47 ± 2_14:21 0.09 | 0.00023 5.8 m - 13 m (2015 XA378) 2053-Jun-01 04:39 ± 1_19:24 0.22 | 0.00057 18 m - 39 m (2018 NL) 2055-Jun-29 10:13 ± 1_05:35 0.13 | 0.00034 22 m - 49 m (2017 UJ43) 2112-Nov-08 06:27 ± 2_12:08 0.24 | 0.00060 7.7 m - 17 m (2007 UW1) 2129-Oct-19 03:25 ± 01:29 0.15 | 0.00040 77 m - 170 m (2019 NB7) 2174-Jul-16 16:51 ± 6_07:18 0.02 | 5.43e-5 8.8 m - 20 m (2009 WQ6) 2189-Nov-18 00:27 ± 00:30 0.13 | 0.00034 3.8 m - 8.6 m Source: NASA/JPL CNEOS, 2020-01-31
38. 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) 2029-Apr-13 21:46 ± < 00:01 Animation: NASA/JPL
39. Trojans Asteroids Animation: NASA/JPL
40. Lucy Mission Launch: October 2021
41. Lagrange points Images: Western University of Canada, NASA
42. Earth Trojans Animation: NASA/JPL
43. What we'll talk about Jan 25 Orbital Debris Orbital Mechanics 101, debris angers, notable events, monitoring Feb 1 Natural Objects How ISS pass apps work, Trojans, Asteroids, Comets & other NEOs Feb 8 What is being done now & in the future Space Law, cleanup & servicing missions Feb15 Wrap-Up & general astronomy Q&A Feb 8 What is being done now & in the future Space Law, cleanup & servicing missions
44. What can be done about space junk?
45. Happy New Year!
46. • Monitoring avoidance maneuvers as necessary • Shielding protect against the MMOD you can't see to avoid • Prevention design for demise, reuse where possible • Active cleanup Space Debris Plan
47. Even small MMOD impacts can cause a lot of damage Hypervelocity MMOD impacts represent a substantial threat to spacecraft Rule of thumb: at 7km/s, aluminum sphere can penetrate completely through an aluminum plate 4x the sphere s diameter Damage from a 1.3cm diameter sphere at 7km/s Comparison of size of projectile to size of impact crater MMOD Risk Overview Eric Christiansen NASA/JSC July 2014
48. Even small MMOD impacts can cause a lot of damage Hypervelocity MMOD impacts represent a substantial threat to spacecraft Rule of thumb: at 7km/s, aluminum sphere can penetrate completely through an aluminum plate 4x the sphere s diameter Damage from a 1.3cm diameter sphere at 7km/s Comparison of size of projectile to size of impact crater MMOD Risk Overview Eric Christiansen NASA/JSC July 2014
49. 19 MMOD damage caused disconnected bypass diode, leading to cell overheat damage MMOD Risk Overview Eric Christiansen NASA/JSC July 2014
50. National Aeronautics and Space Administration 27 STS-120 Solar Array Wing (SAW) EVA repair was caused by MMOD impact damage During STS-120 two solar array wings were removed from Z1 truss and relocated to P6 location. During re- deployment, the 4B solar array wing was torn in two places, due to a snagged guide wire. The guide wire was e ed a d c ff- added ab e e a a . MMOD Risk Overview Eric Christiansen NASA/JSC July 2014
51. 29 MMOD Damage to ISS ‡ MMOD impact damages observed to radiator panel during EVA-20 (Nov. 2012) ISS033e017859 P6 Photovoltaic Radiator Torque Panel (NOTE: numerous smaller impacts not indicated) MMOD Risk Overview Eric Christiansen NASA/JSC July 2014
52. Sampling of Shuttle Window MMOD Impact Craters (all displayed on same dimensional scale) MMOD Risk Overview Eric Christiansen NASA/JSC July 2014
53. 13 ISS shielding overview ‡ Several hundred MMOD shields protect ISS, differing by materials, standoff distance, and capability ‡ Heavier shields on front & sides (where we expect most MMOD impacts), less capable shielding on aft, nadir and visiting vehicles Earth velocity direction Russian Segment NASA JAXA ESA colors represent different MMOD shield configurations JAXA ISS Sheilding MMOD Risk Overview Eric Christiansen NASA/JSC July 2014 Several hundred MMOD shields protect ISS, differing by materials, standoff distance, and capability Heavier shields on front & sides (where we expect most MMOD impacts), less capable shielding on aft, nadir and visiting vehicles
54. Types of shields NASA/JSC Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science https://hvit.jsc.nasa.gov/ Monolithic Brute force approach Whipple Developed by Fred Whipple in the 1940s. Sacrificial bumper to absorb energy, break projectile up Stuffed Whipple Layers of Nextel and Kevlar between bumper and spacecraft Multi-Shock Alternating layers of Nextel and Kevlar shock projective into harmless fragments
55. Shield Materials NASA/JSC Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science https://hvit.jsc.nasa.gov/ Nextel woven ceramic fabric (3M) Kevlar Also used in bulletproof vests (DuPont) Aluminum Heavy, but useful in front and back bumpers Mesh Steel or Aluminum, energy absorption, projectile break up
56. MMOD Risk Overview Eric Christiansen NASA/JSC July 2014 S a : 1 = 1 Aluminum “Monolith” Shield 29.1 pounds per square foot 2.00 ( ) 0.08 a thermal insulation 6 layers Nextel® AF-62 6 layers Kevlar® Style 710 (or KM2-705) (vacuum) (vacuum) (vacuum) (spacecraft interior) (spacecraft exterior) (spacecraft exterior) 4.50 0.5 diameter aluminum sphere (debris simulant) 0.5 diameter aluminum sphere (debris simulant) Impact Velocity (7 km/s) Impact Velocity (7 km/s) equal performance 84% weight reduction 2.00 a T a a 0.5 a a b projectile impacting at 7km/s, but the Stuffed Whipple Aluminum Monolith Shield 29.1 pounds per square foot
57. MMOD Risk Overview Eric Christiansen NASA/JSC July 2014 12 a : 1 = 1 Stuffed Whipple Shield 4.5 pounds per square foot 0.08 a thermal insulation 6 layers Nextel® AF-62 6 layers Kevlar® Style 710 (or KM2-705) 0.188 a (vacuum) (vacuum) (vacuum) (spacecraft interior) (spacecraft exterior) 4.50 0.5 diameter aluminum sphere (debris simulant) Impact Velocity (7 km/s) equal ormance 84% weight duction ple d) Aluminum Monolith Shield 4.5 pounds per square foot
58. • Minimize required heat • Minimize mass • Maximize available heat • Materials and their shapes Design for Demise • Optimize heat transfer to encourage early break-up • Orifices, lattice structures • Minimize blast radius • Keep fragments together ESA CleanSpace webinar on Design for Demise
59. • Large objects are the size of a bus • Most are tumbling uncontrollably • Speed and direction cannot be determined until you get close • Then you must: • sync the debris removal spacecraft with the tumbling debris • Get close enough to capture .... • Without crashing Active Debris Removal is Hard
60. https://youtube.com/watch?v=QoMOEyUr9GI
64. Spinnaker3 drag sail prototype video/Jackson Spencer
65. Jan 25 Orbital Debris Orbital Mechanics 101, debris angers, notable events, monitoring Feb 1 Natural Objects How ISS pass apps work, Trojans, Asteroids, Comets & other NEOs Feb15 Wrap-Up & general astronomy Q&A Feb15 Wrap-Up & general astronomy Q&A Feb 8 What is being done now & in the future Space Law, cleanup & servicing missions What we'll talk about