Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future

4f36a55babc014c17fb69cca9bf4a9c2?s=47 Andy Cox
February 28, 2013

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future

Presented at 2013 IRE CAR conference in Louisville, Kentucky.

4f36a55babc014c17fb69cca9bf4a9c2?s=128

Andy Cox

February 28, 2013
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    Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future Andy Cox

    The Weather Company February 28, 2013 @InfoVizard
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    ?

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    Goals Not going to teach you how to do linear

    regression or interpret a p-value
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    What is predictive modeling? Working definition: Using data to build

    an approximation of some aspect of the real world that we can use to better understand it or predict how it will behave to previously unseen input.
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    REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. Tornado watch
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    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO

    IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. Tornado warning
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    AT 6:57 PM CDT...A LARGE TORNADO WAS MOVING ALONG INTERSTATE

    44 WEST OF NEWCASTLE. ON ITS PRESENT PATH...THIS LARGE DAMAGING TORNADO WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA BETWEEN 7:15 AND 7:30 PM. PERSONS IN MOORE AND SOUTH OKLAHOMA CITY SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS! THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO... TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY. Tornado warning
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