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Estatística: a gramática de Data Science
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Big Data Week São Paulo
November 23, 2015
Technology
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Estatística: a gramática de Data Science
Ícaro Medeiros
Especialista em Data Science @Telefônica
Big Data Week São Paulo
November 23, 2015
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Transcript
STATISTICS THE GRAMMAR OF DATA SCIENCE ÍCARO MEDEIROS Big Data
Week São Paulo - SP, 23/11/2015
WHY TO PURSUE SOLID BACKGROUND ON STATISTICS? https://twitter.com/josh_wills/status/198093512149958656
INSPIRATIONS FOR THIS KEYNOTE https://speakerdeck.com/jakevdp/statistics-for-hackers https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17986418-naked-statistics
METRICS MEANING METHODS MISUSES - + + +
HOW TO LIE: MOVIE REVIEWS http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fandango-movies-ratings BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE
MATH, WE [THINK] IT’S SOMEHOW OBJECTIVELY TRUE, BUT IT’S ALL BASED ON SUBJECTIVE EXPERIENCE
FANDANGO LOVES MOVIES http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fandango-movies-ratings (AND SELLS MOVIE TICKETS)
ATTENTION TO PROVENANCE
HOW TO LIE: ROUNDING http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fandango-movies-ratings
HOW TO LIE: ROUNDING http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fandango-movies-ratings
CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION
SHORT BREAKS AT WORK "CAUSE" CANCER Example from ‘Naked Statistics'
SMOKING CAUSES CANCER BREAKS AT WORK CORRELATED WITH LEAD TO
SPURIOUS CORRELATIONS http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
A/B TESTING https://vwo.com/ab-testing/
https://xkcd.com/882 (Significant) SIGNIFICANCE
None
None
A/B TESTING CAN BE BAD https://www.quora.com/When-should-A-B-testing-not-be-trusted-to-make-decisions/answer/Edwin-Chen-1 ▸Feedback loops ▸Novelty effect
▸Seasonality ▸Wrong metrics http://www.evanmiller.org/how-not-to-run-an-ab-test.html
CHOOSE THE RIGHT METRICS: CLICKS VS DWELL TIME http://yahoolabs.tumblr.com/post/99405569711/science-powering-product-and-personalization
CHOOSE THE RIGHT METRICS: SHARING IS NOT NECESSARILY CARING http://time.com/12933/what-you-think-you-know-about-the-web-is-wrong/
THE RED CARD PROBLEM http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/science-isnt-broken/ http://www.nature.com/news/crowdsourced-research-many-hands-make-tight-work-1.18508
61 RESEARCHERS: SAME PROBLEM, DIFFERENT METHODS http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/science-isnt-broken/
THE BACON CONTROVERSY
MORE ABOUT P-VALUES https://twitter.com/Ted_Underwood/status/658983555008040960
IS THIS A GOOD CLASSIFICATION? http://www.wired.com/2015/10/who-does-bacon-cause-cancer-sort-of-but-not-really/ 1 CARCINOGENIC 2A PROBABLY
2B POSSIBLY …
EFFECT SIZE: BACON VS CIGARETTES (SAME CATEGORY) This is bacon
18% Cigarette
WAIT FOR IT…
Cigarette 2500% http://www.wired.com/2015/10/who-does-bacon-cause-cancer-sort-of-but-not-really/
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/oct/26/bacon-ham-sausages-processed-meats-cancer-risk-smoking-says-who https://catracalivre.com.br/geral/sustentavel/indicacao/muito-alem-do-bacon-agrotoxicos-tambem-podem-causar-cancer/
THE SCHRODINGER’S DIET http://www.vox.com/2015/5/20/8621527/health-tips-reporter
” http://nerds.airbnb.com/scaling-data-science DATA SCIENCE IS AN ACT OF INTERPRETATION OF
CUSTOMER'S VOICE
GOOD DATA VISUALIZATION: TIPS FOR SCATTER PLOTS http://content.visage.co/hs-fs/hub/424038/file-2094950163-pdf/Data_Visualization_101_How_to_Design_Charts_and_Graphs.pdf
DAVID MCCANDLESS: INFORMATION IS BEAUTIFUL http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/diversity-in-tech/
IT’S EASY TO LIE WITH STATISTICS, BUT IT’S HARD TO
TELL THE TRUTH WITHOUT THEM Andrejs Dunkels, as mentioned on "Naked Statistics" TAKEAWAY MESSAGE
slides icaromedeiros.com.br slideshare.net/icaromedeiros @icaromedeiros