BES2024: The Timeline to Collapse suggests terminal decline in Norwegian Atlantic puffins and Black-legged kittiwakes.

A talk given at the British Ecological Society's annual meeting.

Transcript

1. The timeline to collapse suggests terminal decline in Norwegian Atlantic puffins and black-legged kittiwakes Duncan O’Brien duncan.obrien@bristol.ac.uk duncanobrien.bsky.social
2. Tracking stress that acts upon individuals, manifested as population dynamics The Timeline to Collapse duncanobrien.bsky.social
3. The Timeline to Collapse duncanobrien.bsky.social
4. The Timeline to Collapse Each dimension buffers the next duncanobrien.bsky.social Individuals respond individually
5. Timeline fragments - Cerini et al. 2023a Experimental timelines - Cerini et al. 2023b The Timeline to Collapse duncanobrien.bsky.social
6. Seabirds as sentinels duncanobrien.bsky.social
7. Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) Black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) Norwegian seabirds Threats • Warming • Fishery competition • Avian flu duncanobrien.bsky.social
8. Creating time series Behaviour Morphology Abundance Stressor duncanobrien.bsky.social Individuals to population averages
9. Creating time series duncanobrien.bsky.social Behaviour Morphology Abundance Stressor
10. duncanobrien.bsky.social Identifying the Timeline
11. duncanobrien.bsky.social Generalised additive model • 𝑦𝑖 ~ 𝑂𝑟𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙𝐵𝑒𝑡𝑎(𝛼, 𝛾, 𝛿, 𝜇𝑖 , Φ𝑖 ) • 𝜇𝑖 = 𝛽𝑖𝑑[𝑖] + 𝑓(𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑖 , 𝑀𝐻𝑊𝑖 )𝑖𝑑[𝑖] • Φ𝑖 = 𝛽𝑖𝑑[𝑖] • 𝑖𝑑 = 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 Identifying the Timeline
12. Identifying the Timeline duncanobrien.bsky.social Behaviour Morphology Abundance
13. Identifying the Timeline duncanobrien.bsky.social Behaviour Morphology Abundance
14. • Abundance declines ubiquitous • Morphology (body weight) relatively stable • Behaviour time series length compromises comparisons • Population level differences apparent • Stable but fluctuating Timeline components implies limited buffering ability • Populations at/in extinction vortex (Allee effect)? Conclusions duncanobrien.bsky.social
15. Chris Clements Kate Layton-Matthews Hannah Wauchope Pol Capdevila Lanzaco data bodies administration funding Acknowledgements duncanobrien.bsky.social duncan.obrien@bristol.ac.uk