Augmenting Human Decision Making with Data Science - RubyxElixir Conf 2018

Transcript

1. HUMAN DECISION MAKING Kelsey Pedersen Software Engineer, Stitch Fix with DATA SCIENCE AUGMENTING @kelsey_pedersen
9. @kelsey_pedersen
12. The future of software development is the integration of algorithms
14. How do humans make decisions? What are the limitations of human decision making? How can we help users make decisions with data science?
15. How do humans make decisions? Human Decisions Limits of Decisions Stylists Decisions Humans & Data Science The Future
16. System 1 System 2 FAST SLOW
17. System 1 impressions & feelings
22. 95% of human decisions are made instantaneously
23. System 2 analytical & effortful
24. 1737 x 1990 Answer: 3,456,630
26. System 1 gut feelings System 2 computations
27. What are the limits in human decision making? Human Decisions Limits of Decisions Stylists Decisions Humans & Data Science The Future
29. Human decisions are unpredictable
32. Human decisions are driven by your own past experiences
34. Human decisions are driven by your own views and preferences
37. What is an example of balancing humans and data science? Human Decisions Limits of Decisions Stylists Decisions Humans & Data Science The Future
39. Inconsistent Judgments by Stylists
40. Information Overload by Stylists
41. Biased Decisions by Stylists
43. In what ways can data science augment human decisions? Human Decisions Limits of Decisions Stylists Decisions Humans & Data Science The Future
44. GUIDE DECISIONS WITH COMPUTATIONS TRAIN DECISIONS WITH FEEDBACK
46. Deciding on one item
48. 72% 60% 48% 44%
52. Deciding on all 5 items
53. 72% 60% 48% 44% 56%
54. 50% 26% 18% 14% 27%
57. Client Feedback on all 5 items
61. Client Feedback overtime for one Stylist
65. All Feedback for all Stylists
68. Can humans augment algorithms? Human Decisions Limits of Decisions Stylists Decisions Humans & Data Science The Future
74. 72% 60% 48% 10%
75. 72% 60% 48% 44% 24%
78. stylists data scientists
79. What is the future of humans and data science? Human Decisions Limits of Decisions Stylists Decisions Humans & Data Science The Future
81. System 1 gut feelings System 2 computations &
84. Data Science Humans System 1 System 2 Data Science Humans System 3
85. System 3 predictive & intuitive
86. TRAIN Performance Metrics
87. System 1 gut feelings System 2 computations System 3 feedback
88. What is the business impact of system 3?
89. lower labor cost fewer mistakes from humans greater client satisfaction increased keep rate
90. In conclusion…
91. Conclusion
94. Conclusion
95. humans data science
96. @kelsey_pedersen KELSEY PEDERSEN