The hidden dance of complexity (ConFoo 2025)

Complexity is all around us. We are, we are part of, and we build dynamic complex systems.And yet we have trouble grasping it! In this talk we'll dive into the intricacies of complexity. Join me to explore its formal definition, concepts like reversibility and reductionism, and the profound effects of non-linearity. We'll delve into the human and organizational perspective on complexity, and how changes and incidents are shaped by it.

Transcript

1. THE HIDDEN DANCE OF COMPLEXITY Michiel Rook @michieltcs https:/ /www. fl ickr.com/photos/mixtapepl/7165728374/
2. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine AN INTRODUCTION TO
3. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine COMPLEXITY (THEORY)
4. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine ELEMENTS FROM
5. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SAFETY SCIENCE
6. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SYSTEMS THINKING
7. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine INFORMATION THEORY
8. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine CHAOS THEORY
9. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine WARNING: IT'S PRETTY COMPLICATED
10. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine COMPLEXITY IS ALL AROUND US
11. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine N E I L T H E I S E "Everywhere we look, we see complexity. In everything we do, we participate in complexity."
12. https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/trees-canopy-crown-shyness-forest-4450514/
13. https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/birds-swarm- fl ock-of-birds-heaven-1714542/
14. https:/ /w.wiki/CZ7i
15. https:/ /www.vecteezy.com/photo/43993323-nuclear-plant-sunset-silhouette
16. https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/city-sun-sky-mood-architecture-5092432/
17. https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/people-crowd-street-crossing-japan-4259948/
18. CHARACTERISTICS OF A COMPLEX SYSTEM
19. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine CHANGES NOT REVERSIBLE
20. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine EVENTS NOT REPLICABLE
21. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine NON-LINEARITY
22. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine THE WHOLE IS GREATER THAN THE SUM OF ITS PARTS
23. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SENSITIVITY TO INITIAL CONDITIONS
24. https:/ /github.com/theabbie/DoublePendulum
25. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine BUTTERFLY EFFECT
26. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine EMERGENCE
27. https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/castle-storm-clouds-weather-rain-8033915/
28. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine (APPARENT) RANDOMNESS
30. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine POSITIVE FEEDBACK
31. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine NEGATIVE FEEDBACK
32. https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/rain-drops-water-water-droplets-7508393/
33. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SELF-ORGANIZATION
34. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "Components interacting in ways that cannot be predicted." C H A R L ES P E R R OW
35. https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/people-crowd-street-crossing-japan-4259948/
36. @michieltcs @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine
37. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine FRICTION
38. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "Everything is very simple in war, but the simplest thing is di ff i cult. These di ff i culties accumulate and produce a friction." – CA R L VO N C L AU S E W I T Z
39. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine COUPLING
40. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine TIGHT COUPLING TIGHT TOLERANCES NO DELAYS OR SLACK CENTRALIZED & RIGID INTERDEPENDENCE LOOSE COUPLING DECENTRALIZED BUFFERS NO RIGID SEQUENCES TIME TO CORRECT PROBLEMS
45. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine CHAOTIC SYSTEMS?
46. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "In a chaotic system, a computer model shows that the same starting conditions will always generate the same emergent properties. The whole is predictably greater than the sum of its parts." S I D N E Y D E K K E R
47. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine HOW DO WE (HUMANS) PERCEIVE COMPLEX SYSTEMS?
48. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine WE DON'T (REALLY) UNDERSTAND
49. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "Complex systems can never be wholly understood or exhaustively described. If they could, they would either not be complex, or the entity understanding them would have to be as complex as the whole system." S I D N E Y D E K K E R
50. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "As the complexity of a system increases, the accuracy of any single agent's own model of that system decreases rapidly." DAV I D WO O D S
51. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine OUR MODELS DO NOT MATCH REALITY
52. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine
53. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine FEEDBACK LOOPS NOT (ALWAYS) UNIDIRECTIONAL!
55. https:/ /w.wiki/CyTs
56. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine THE SEARCH FOR (PERFECT) INFORMATION
58. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine WE OVERSIMPLIFY
59. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine NEWTONIAN & CARTESIAN VIEWS
61. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "Cartesians view the mind as being wholly separate from the corporeal body"
62. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine REDUCTIONISM
64. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "To every action, there is always opposed an equal reaction"
65. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine CAUSE EFFECT
66. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine CONSPIRACY THEORIES
67. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "The more elaborate a conspiracy theory is, and the more people that would need to be involved to pull it o ff , the less likely it is true." M I C H A E L S H E R M E R
68. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine HOW DO ORGANIZATIONS DEAL WITH COMPLEX SYSTEMS?
69. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "When the variety or complexity of the environment exceeds the capacity of a system (natural or arti fi cial) the environment will dominate and ultimately destroy that system." W. R O S S AS H BY
70. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine COMPLEX DOMAIN = COMPLEX ORGANIZATION
71. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "No organization operates in a vacuum." S I D N E Y D E K K E R
72. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine DIVERSITY
73. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine CONTRADICTING GOALS
74. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine LINEAR MEASURES TO NON-LINEAR EFFECTS
76. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine False Ballistic Missile Alert Investigation for January 13, 2018, Hawaii Department of Defense
77. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine CHANGE IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS
78. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine TO OBSERVE IS TO CHANGE
79. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine WE MAKE LIFE (MORE) DIFFICULT
80. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine OUTSOURCING?
81. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine DISTRIBUTED ARCHITECTURES
82. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine PLATFORMS
83. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine REDUNDANCY & AUTOMATION
84. @michieltcs @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine
85. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
86. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine “Everything is unprecedented until it happens for the fi rst time.” C H ES L E Y B . S U L L E N B E R G E R
87. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine INCIDENTS IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS
88. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SURPRISING FAILURE MODES
89. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SYSTEM INCIDENTS
90. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SYSTEMS THINKING
91. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS?
92. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine “Failures in complex systems require multiple contributing causes, each necessary but only jointly su ffi cient.” R I C H A R D C O O K
93. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "What you call 'root cause' is simply the place where you stop looking any further." S I D N E Y D E K K E R
94. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine ROOT CAUSES?
95. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine “Finding the root cause of a failure is like fi nding the root cause of a success.” J O H N A L L S PAW
96. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine 5 WHYS
97. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine Figure 1 A causal event tree (adapted from ref. 21). ID, identification; IT, information technology. The problem with… Alan J. Card - The problem with '5 whys' BMJ quality & safety · September 2016 DOI: 10.1136/bmjqs-2016-005849
98. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine “For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.” H . L . M E N C K E N
99. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SO WHAT?
100. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine THE WORLD IS VUCA
101. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine VOLATILE UNCERTAIN COMPLEX AMBIGUOUS
102. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine COMPLEXITY = REALITY
103. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine REALITY = COMPLEXITY
104. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine COMPLEXITY REQUIRES NUANCE
105. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine WE DO SEE PATTERNS
106. https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/performance-music-musician-concert-3202707/
107. https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/forest-trees-path-nature-autumn-8584311/
108. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine WE CAN ADAPT
109. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "There is only one way the plan can go right, but any number of ways in which it can go wrong." – S T E P H E N B U N G AY
110. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." – M I K E T YS O N
111. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine ORGANIZE FOR WHAT WE DON'T KNOW
112. @michieltcs @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine
113. @michieltcs @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine
114. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine POKE THE SYSTEM TO LEARN THE SYSTEM
115. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine COPING WITH COMPLEXITY IS COPING WITH UNCERTAINTY
116. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine RESILIENCE
117. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "Requires expertise, experience, autonomy, imaginative adaptability, heuristics, and the ability to make, adjust and reject provisional conclusions as information changes." T H E J O L LY C O N T RA R I A N
118. @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine HUMANS ARE ADAPTABLE ASSETS
119. @michieltcs @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine THANK YOU FOR LISTENING! @michieltcs / @michielrook.bsky.social email: michiel@michielrook.nl www.michielrook.nl
120. @michieltcs @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine https://www.michielrook.nl/2024/08/literature-tips/