Modeling Football Results Using Match-specific Covariates

Modeling Football Results Using Match-specific Covariates

A model for results of football matches is proposed that is able to take into account match-specific covariates as, for example, the total distance a team runs in the specific match. The model extends the Bradley-Terry model in many diff erent ways. In addition to the inclusion of covariates, it considers ordered response values and (possibly team-specific) home e ffects. Penalty terms are used to reduce the complexity of the model and to find clusters of teams with equal covariate effects.



October 08, 2016