Setting Productive, Attainable Ed Goals for NC

ECONorthwest June 15 presentation to the myFutureNC Commission.

Transcript

1. Se$ng produc-ve, a1ainable educa-onal goals for North Carolina June 15, 2018 ECONorthwest ECONOMICS • FINANCE • PLANNING
2. Takeaways •  Technological change has demanded, and will con-nue to demand, higher skilled labor •  North Carolina’s postsecondary a1ainment gap (across various defini-ons) is 11-15 percentage points •  North Carolina’s postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) increased by 7 percentage points over the past decade •  Sta-ng the obvious: postsecondary enrollment at age 19 is a predictor of postsecondary a1ainment at age 26 •  P12 goals should consider measures of hard and soR skills •  Achievement gaps measured at age 5 have proven difficult to narrow during K12, confirming the need for age 0-4 programming and measures
3. Educa-on and the economy
4. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 South Dakota North Dakota Connecticut Virginia Colorado Massachusetts New Hampshire Texas Georgia Kansas Nebraska Louisiana Maryland New Jersey Utah Arkansas Minnesota Mississippi Alabama Iowa Rhode Island Oregon North Carolina South Carolina Tennessee Oklahoma Washington Maine Wisconsin Florida California New York Montana Pennsylvania Arizona Illinois Idaho Indiana New Mexico Vermont Missouri Kentucky Ohio Nevada West Virginia Hawaii Michigan Annual average GDP per capita growth, 1970-2007 Years of schooling Test scores Total annual average GDP per capita growth Contribu-ons to GDP per capita growth, 1970-2007 Economic benefits of a be1er-educated workforce Source: Hanushek et al. (2017). Economic Gains from Educa-onal Reform by US States. Journal of Human Capital. Other factors
5. Risk of job disrup-on Share of occupa-ons at high risk of automa-on Percent Automation Risk 45% - 50% 50% - 55% 55% - 60% 60% - 65% Source: Frey and Osborne (2017) & analysis by Ball State University Lower Higher
6. Growing importance of social skills in the labor force Actual Predicted Source: Deming, D.J. (2017). The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 132 issue 4. 1980 1990 2000 2010 High Social, High Math Low Social, High Math High Social, Low Math Low Social, Low Math Occupational Task Intensities based on 1998 O*NET Sources: 1980-2000 Census, 2005-2013 ACS Cumulative Changes in Employment Share by Occupation Task Intensity 1980 to 2012 High Social, High Math High Social, Low Math Low Social, High Math Low Social, Low Math
7. Early thoughts on goal se$ng
8. Early thoughts on goal se$ng •  Start at the end and work back •  Consider: –  Age range(s) –  Creden-al types –  Growth feasibility –  Exis-ng gaps by income, race/ethnicity, geography –  Time to goal
9. State-level goals versus current state-level a1ainment Sources: Goals compiled by the Lumina Founda-on (HCM Strategists, Strategy Labs); ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS data; Georgetown CEW. AK AZ AR CO CT GA HI ID IA IL IN KS KY LA ME MD MA MN MO MT NV NH OH OR RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA AL FL NJ NM ND OK WY WI 20% 40% 60% 80% 20% 40% 60% 80% Actual attainment (for 25-34 or 25-64 year olds, depending on goal) Attainment goal State postsecondary attainment goals and actual attainment, 2016 Legend: Certificate+ Associate+ Bachelor's+
10. North Carolina postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) by age, 2016 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 Age
11. North Carolina postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) by age, 2016 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 Age Ages 25-34: recent graduates AA+ a1ainment: 43% Ages 35-64: adult workforce AA+ a1ainment: 42%
12. White Black Hispanic North Carolina postsecondary a1ainment, by age and race/ethnicity, 2016 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS
13. Postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) by NC region and race/ethnicity, 2016 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% North Central Northeast Northwest Piedmont-Triad Sandhills (South Central) Southeast Southwest Western Total White Black Hispanic
14. Postsecondary a1ainment (associate+), 2016 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS Younger (25-34) Older (35-64) All (25-64) North Carolina 43% 42% 42% Top state 58% 52% 53% Difference -15 -10 -11 Lumina Founda-on’s Stronger Na-on (cer-ficate+), 2016 All (25-64) North Carolina 47% Lumina na-onal goal 60% Difference -13
15. What’s feasible? Change in a1ainment (associate+) by state, 2006-2016, ages 25-34 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 ME WY NE OR CO DC TN IL MO TX CA UT VA OH MN SD NH NC WAMA RI NY KY CT AL NJ WI AR FL PA OK ID SC KS IA IN GA LA AZ MS NM AK WV HI MI NV VT MD DE MT ND Change in associate+ attainment from 2006-2016, ages 25-34
16. Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 DC IA NC SD MT MNWV OH IN SC PA NH WI GA NE VA MO KY TN MS AL ND WY MI NJ CO CT KS RI LA ME OR IL NY AR MAWA OK TX ID MD FL UT AZ HI NV DE CA AK NM VT Change in associate+ attainment from 2006-2016, ages 35-64 What’s feasible? Change in a1ainment (associate+) by state, 2006-2016, ages 35-64
17. 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 DC IA NC SD NE MN OH WY TN MO NH CO VA PA ME WI IN SC WV OR KY IL GA AL RI NJ MT CT NY TX MS MA KS WA UT LA AR MI ND OK ID FL CA AZ MD HI NV DE NM AK VT Change in associate+ attainment from 2006-2016, ages 25-64 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS What’s feasible? Change in a1ainment (associate+) by state, 2006-2016, ages 25-64
18. Younger (25-34) Older (35-64) All (25-64) Moderate +11 pp +8 pp +9 pp Stretch +13 pp +10 pp +11 pp Ambi-ous ? ? +13 pp Poten-al a1ainment goals for North Carolina
19. Other measures that track progress toward the goal
20. Age 19 enrollment versus age 26 a1ainment for the cohorts born in 1988-90 (averaged), by state Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS
21. North Carolina postsecondary enrollment, by age, 2016 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 Age
22. NC enrollment, by age, compared with a top-performing state and neighboring states, 2016 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 Age MN VA NC GA TN
23. 8th grade NAEP performance versus age 26 a1ainment for the cohorts born in 1988-90 (averaged), by state Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS and NCES NAEP data
24. K12 indicators: academic achievement, a1endance, gradua-on Not proficient in elementary reading Not proficient In elementary math No disciplinary incidents in grades 6-8 Steady attendance in 9th grade On-time HS graduation No on-time HS graduation Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE and NSC data Postsecondary enrollment Postsecondary outcomes
25. Achievement gaps measured at age 5 have proven difficult to narrow during K12 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 test scores in standard deviations parent income in highest quartile parent income in lowest quartile age 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Source: White House Council of Economic Advisors (December 2014) The Economics of Early Childhood Investments. Figure 3, page 13.
26. Analysis to come
27. Example ques-ons answered by modeling •  What will happen through 2030 if we do nothing? •  How much would high school gradua-on rates have to improve to reach the postsecondary a1ainment goal by 2030? •  To what extent can the state increase overall a1ainment while reducing dispari-es across specified popula-ons given an-cipated upper bounds on postsecondary enrollment growth?
28. Modeling ac-vi-es •  Develop a baseline a1ainment forecast (current condi-ons/policy) •  Set targets for system performance needed to achieve the goal •  Evaluate contribu-ons of subpopula-on a1ainment to the goal
29. Example of goal-reaching approach to modeling: Establish the ul-mate goal and iden-fy condi-ons necessary to achieve this goal (condi-ons can be independent of the means used to achieve the goal) Baseline (certificates+) Alternative trajectory (certificates+)