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Managing Emerging Forest Diseases: Trade-Offs and Uncertainty

Ea1cbd5dd3baad697fa3d52688cab716?s=47 noamross
September 21, 2012

Managing Emerging Forest Diseases: Trade-Offs and Uncertainty

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noamross

September 21, 2012
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  1. Bioeconomics of Forest Disease: Learning to Manage Emerging Threats Noam

    Ross UC Davis REACH IGERT Bridge Proposal September 21, 2012 Advisors: Alan Hastings, Jim Sanchirico, David Rizzo
  2. Forest diseases transform landscapes Ellison et al. (2005) American chestnuts

    circa 1910 Modern chestnuts reduced to shrubs A tree killed by chestnut blight
  3. Sudden Oak Death may decimate tanoak, threatens oak and larch

    Projected spread of Sudden Oak Death (Phytophthora ramorum) in California Meentemeyer et al. (2011)
  4. Complexity in Phytophthora dynamics makes detection and control difficult ▪

    Variation across and within species ▪ Low detectability in many species ▪ Short- and long-distance dispersal ▪ Host-density thresholds
  5. Host-density thresholds may inform methods of control Large initial population

    Tree Population Small Tanoak Large Tanoak Large Tanoak 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Small Tanoak Cobb et al. (2012) Small initial population Years Extinction
  6. We have a set of imperfect tools for preventing and

    mitigating outbreaks ▪ Chemical treatment ▪ Quarantine and sanitation ▪ Infectious tree removal ▪ Pre-emptive removal of high-risk trees ▪ Species thinning
  7. Disease management has monetary and non-monetary trade-offs Photo: Rob Welham

  8. I will quantify trade-offs between thinning and treatment Risk of

    Outbreak Low High Cost of Quarantine and Pesticide Trees Removed 10% chance of outbreak frontier
  9. ...and explore the effects of climate, geography and uncertainty Cost

    of Quarantine and Pesticide Trees Removed
  10. ...by drawing on interdisciplinary tools Ecological- Epidemiological Models Economic Optimization

    Methods Brozović and Schlenker (2011) Filipe et al. (2012)
  11. Thank you And thanks to: Alan Hastings, Jim Sanchirico, David

    Rizzo, Richard Cobb, NSF Reach IGERT Contact: noamross@ucdavis.edu noamross.net @noamross