Managing Emerging Forest Diseases: Trade-Offs and Uncertainty

Transcript

1. Bioeconomics of Forest Disease: Learning to Manage Emerging Threats Noam Ross UC Davis REACH IGERT Bridge Proposal September 21, 2012 Advisors: Alan Hastings, Jim Sanchirico, David Rizzo
2. Forest diseases transform landscapes Ellison et al. (2005) American chestnuts circa 1910 Modern chestnuts reduced to shrubs A tree killed by chestnut blight
3. Sudden Oak Death may decimate tanoak, threatens oak and larch Projected spread of Sudden Oak Death (Phytophthora ramorum) in California Meentemeyer et al. (2011)
4. Complexity in Phytophthora dynamics makes detection and control difficult ▪ Variation across and within species ▪ Low detectability in many species ▪ Short- and long-distance dispersal ▪ Host-density thresholds
5. Host-density thresholds may inform methods of control Large initial population Tree Population Small Tanoak Large Tanoak Large Tanoak 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Small Tanoak Cobb et al. (2012) Small initial population Years Extinction
6. We have a set of imperfect tools for preventing and mitigating outbreaks ▪ Chemical treatment ▪ Quarantine and sanitation ▪ Infectious tree removal ▪ Pre-emptive removal of high-risk trees ▪ Species thinning
7. Disease management has monetary and non-monetary trade-offs Photo: Rob Welham
8. I will quantify trade-offs between thinning and treatment Risk of Outbreak Low High Cost of Quarantine and Pesticide Trees Removed 10% chance of outbreak frontier
9. ...and explore the effects of climate, geography and uncertainty Cost of Quarantine and Pesticide Trees Removed
10. ...by drawing on interdisciplinary tools Ecological- Epidemiological Models Economic Optimization Methods Brozović and Schlenker (2011) Filipe et al. (2012)
11. Thank you And thanks to: Alan Hastings, Jim Sanchirico, David Rizzo, Richard Cobb, NSF Reach IGERT Contact: noamross@ucdavis.edu noamross.net @noamross