Paul Norman

50-year deprivation trajectories: local area change within the UK, 1971-2021

Since 1971, the UK's decennial censuses have underpinned the construction of various local level deprivation measures. Many policy-related and academic studies have used deprivation scores calculated cross-sectionally to identify geographical areas in need of regeneration and to explain spatial variations in health, education and crime outcomes. However, such an approach masks the sometimes very distinct challenges faced in areas with different deprivation histories. There is, therefore, a need to consider the deprivation trajectories of areas over a long time run. This can then enable, for example: monitoring the effects of industry closure; assessing the impacts of area-based planning initiatives; and determining whether a change in the level of deprivation leads to changes in health outcomes.

p.d.norman@leeds.ac.uk

Here we extend previous work to cover a 50-year period using input variables relating to employment, housing, and car accessibility, from the six censuses from 1971 to 2021. We identify areas of persistent (dis-)advantage, those areas which have improved their deprivation situation, and those places where the situation has worsened. The presentation will be about small areas in England and Wales but with the recent release of the relevant data for Scotland, will also include initial findings for the 50 year period.

Transcript

1. Paul Norman p.d.norman@leeds.ac.uk @pdqnorman Research Team: Chris Lloyd, Gemma Catney Sara Ferguson (QUB) David McLennan, Michael Noble (deprivation.org) Paul Norman (University of Leeds) St Andrews, November 2024 50 years: Deprivation Trajectories Census-based approach The Nuffield Foundation are thanked for funding ‘Trajectories of Deprivation in the UK’ (award ref. WEL /FR-000023253)
2. 50 years: Deprivation Trajectories Census-based approach • Traditional census composite measures are cross-sectional (for the census year) • Changing deprivation has been calculated using inputs from successive censuses (e.g. Norman 2010; Norman 2016; Exeter et al., 2019) • In the main, as areas become less deprived, good health and other benefits accrue and vice versa • If change in specific places can be tracked then the effect of a policy can be assessed for its success • If you link individual records over time see the influence of place types on outcomes • What we are doing here extends previous work 1971 to 2011
3. Specification Time frame: • Census years: 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011 & 2021(2) Geography: • Coverage England & Wales; (Northern Ireland later & Scotland initial) • 2021 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) (& Datazones) Variables: inputs to Townsend deprivation • Unemployment • Non-home ownership • No car access • Overcrowding Deprivation calculation • Comparable over time Acknowledging that input variables are not without their critics
4. Variables: inputs to Townsend over time Unemployment; Non-home ownership; No car access Overcrowding • Persons per room 1971 to 2011 (> 1ppr) • Bedroom occupancy 2011 & 2021 (fewer bedrooms than needed) Correlations ppr11 occ11min1 occ11min2 pprocc11 occ21min1 occ21min2 ppr01 0.882 0.835 0.864 0.882 0.782 0.822 ppr11 0.915 0.945 0.979 0.849 0.912 occ11min1 0.989 0.974 0.796 0.916 occ11min2 0.992 0.835 0.927 pprocc11 0.852 0.933 occ21min1 0.898
5. Geography Boundary change • Census years: 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011 • Convert variables from ‘source’ geographies EDs & OAs • To ‘target’ 2021 LSOAs 1981 EDs 1981 Postcodes 2021 LSOAs
6. Calculating comparable deprivation scores over time Townsend Scores = (unweighted) sum of variable z scores
7. Deprivation 1971 to 2021 1971 2021
8. Deprivation trajectories 1971 to 2021
9. Variations in deprivation trajectories by Supergroups 2001
10. Variations in deprivation trajectories by Supergroups 2001
11. Reflections … Caveats: ‘measured in this way’ • LSOAs (Datazones) not necessarily the ‘right’ geography • Decennial censuses miss the intervening years, etc • Townsend not necessarily the ‘right’ deprivation • Input indicators assumed relevant over time ‘Validation’ compare with ONS household deprivation measure (2+ dimensions present) • 2021 Townsend correlates 0.712 • Unemployment (0.691), Non-home ownership (0.677), No car (0.618, Overcrowding (0.519) Overcrowding: recent rises in rates may be due to the change in definition • Crude ratio Total Persons : Total Households consistent with increasing densities
12. Scotland deprivation 1971 to 2022 Same process as for E&W 1971 to 2021 except: • 2022! • 2011 Datazones (some zero populations for 2022) • Negative Occupancy in 2022 (have yet to compare for previous years) Variables and Scores / Quintiles relative to Scotland 1971 to 2022
13. Scotland deprivation 1971 to 2022
14. Deprivation trajectories 1971 to 2022 Unemployment Non-Owners No Car Overcrowded Deprivation
15. Deprivation trajectories 1971 to 2022 Distribution Across Scotland
16. Deprivation trajectories 1971 to 2022 Distribution Within Council Areas
17. The future … Further work re Townsend: • Extend to Northern Ireland • To consider how we can operationalise concurrent UK deprivation and trajectories • Relate to other variables • Social housing; Lack of qualifications; Lone parents • Use alternative trajectory methods • Investigate previously unpopulated areas (green / brown field ?) Further work within the Nuffield Project • Employment & qualifications index • IMD-based deprivation change • Local Authority case studies of trajectories and policy contexts
18. Relevant literature … Adams J, Ryan V & White M (2005) How accurate are Townsend Deprivation Scores as predictors of self-reported health? A comparison with individual level data, Journal of Public Health, 27(1): 101–106, https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdh193 Allik, M., Leyland, A., Ichihara, M. Y. T., & Dundas, R. (2020). Creating small-area deprivation indices: a guide for stages and options. J Epidemiol Community Health, 74(1), 20-25. Christie S, Fone D (2003) Does car ownership reflect socio-economic disadvantage in rural areas? A cross-sectional geographical study in Wales, UK. Public Health: 117, 2, 112. Exeter DJ, Feng Z, Zhao J, Cavadino A & Norman P (2019) The geographic harmonisation of Scotland’s small area census data, 1981 to 2011. Health & Place: 57 22-26: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2019.02.003 Haynes, R., Gale, S., Lovett, A. & Bentham, G. (1996). Unemployment rate as an updatable health needs indicator for small areas. Journal of Public Health Medicine 18(1): 27-32. Higgs, G., Senior, M. L. & Williams, H. C. W. L. (1998). Spatial and temporal variation of mortality and deprivation 1: widening health inequalities. Environment & Planning A 30(9) 1661-1682. Lloyd CD, Norman PD & McLennan D (2023) Deprivation in England, 1971–2020. Applied Spatial Analysis & Policy https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-022- 09486-8 Martin, D., Brigham, P., Roderick, P., Barnett, S., & Diamond, I. (2000). The (mis)representation of rural deprivation. Environment & Planning A, 32(4), 735- 751. Norman P & Darlington-Pollock F (2017) The Changing Geography of Deprivation in Great Britain: Exploiting Small Area Census Data, 1971 to 2011. Chapter 30 in Stillwell, J (ed.) Routledge Handbook of Census Resources, Methods and Applications: 404-420 Norman P & Riva M (2012) Population health across space and time: the geographical harmonisation of the ONS Longitudinal Study for England and Wales. Population, Space & Place 18: 483-502 DOI: 10.1002/psp.1705 Norman P (2010) Identifying change over time in small area socio-economic deprivation. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy 3(2-3) 107-138 Norman P (2016) The Changing Geography of Deprivation in Britain: 1971 to 2011 and Beyond. Chapter 11 in Champion T and Falkingham J (eds.) Population change in the United Kingdom: Rowman & Littlefield: London: 193-214 Norman P, Marshall A & Lomax N (2017) Data analytics: on the cusp of using new sources? Radical Statistics 116: 19-30 http://www.radstats.org.uk/no116/ Norman P, Lloyd C, McLennan D, Ferguson S & Catney G (2024) 50-year Deprivation Trajectories: Local Area Change in England and Wales, 1971– 2021. Applied Spatial Analysis & Policy https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-024-09583-w ONS (2023) Housing, England and Wales: Census 2021: Rooms, bedrooms, and occupancy rating Senior M L (2002) Deprivation indicators. In The Census Data System edited by Rees P, Martin D & Williamson P. John Wiley: Chichester; 123-137. Townsend P, Phillimore P & Beattie A (1988) Health and deprivation: inequality and the North Routledge: London and New York