Cooper: State of the U.S. Ethanol Industry

Geoff Cooper
Renewable Fuels Association
Tue., February 20, 2024 (8:10am)
State of the Industry Report

Transcript

1. POWERED BY PARTNERSHIPS State of the U.S. Ethanol Industry Geoff Cooper President and CEO 2024 National Ethanol Conference
3. “John and I were two of the luckiest people in the twentieth century to have found each other. The partnership, the mix, was incredible. We both had submerged qualities that we each saw and knew.” — Paul McCartney
4.  198biorefineries in 24states  17.95billion gallons of annual production capacity
5. 2023 Industry Snapshot 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 Million Gallons U.S. Ethanol Production Billion Gallons Million Metric Tons Billion Pounds Ethanol Production 15.6 Animal Feed Output 34.9 Distillers Oil Output 4.3 Ethanol Inclusion Rate 10.4 % Ethanol Exports 1.43 Billion Gallons Billion Gallons Million Metric Tons Billion Pounds Billion Gallons
6. 2023 Economic Impacts  72,463 Direct Jobs  322,002 Indirect and Induced Jobs  $54.2 Billion in Gross Domestic Product  $32.5 Billion in Household Income
7. Big Questions in 2024 Will IRA tax credits (40B, 45Z) be properly implemented? EV mandates & ICE bans…or carbon reduction standards? Will we have year-round E15? What happens to the RFS post-2025? Will CCUS projects get final approval to move forward? How will the elections affect renewable fuel policies?
8. U.S. Cropland Area (Principal Crops Planted) Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture 275 285 295 305 315 325 335 345 355 365 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Million Acres
9. GREET vs. ICAO: Why it Matters 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Petroleum Jet Fuel Avg. Corn Ethanol- to-Jet Avg. Corn Ethanol- to-Jet w/CCS Avg. Corn Ethanol- to-Jet Avg. Corn Ethanol- to-Jet w/CCS IRA 40B Argonne GREET ICAO Carbon Intensity (grams CO2e/megajoule) ILUC EtJ Conversion Direct Emissions 40B Threshold
10. Wind, 10% Hydro, 6% Solar, 3% Biomass, 1% Geothermal, 0% Nuclear, 18% Petroleum, 1% Coal, 20% Natural Gas, 40% Sources of U.S. Electricity 2022
11. California EV Mandate 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2023 Actual 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Share of New California Light-Duty Sales that Must be BEV and PHEV
12. California E85 Sales 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023P Million Gallons Source: Calif. Air Resources Board (2006-2022); RFA, Pearson Fuels (2023 projection)
13. Reducing the Carbon Intensity of Ethanol…  Ensures corn ethanol can participate in SAF opportunity and 40B  Opens the door to capturing 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit  Positions ethanol to compete with EVs in low carbon markets  Makes year-round E15 even more attractive  Strengthens the case for expanded RFS volumes  Enhances corn ethanol export demand