Real-time prediction of dengue fever in Thailand

Real-time prediction of dengue fever in Thailand

Dengue fever is an infectious disease with complex transmission dynamics that infects roughly 400 million people annually. Of these cases, nearly 100 million are cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), which can lead to debilitating pain, organ shock, and even death. Every year in Thailand, there are on average 50,000 DHF cases throughout the country. The ability to predict when and where these cases occur could guide public health policy decisions that could save lives and efficiently allocate public resources. Working with the Thai Ministry of Public Health, our group has developed an infrastructure for making these predictions in real time. This presentation (which was presented at the 64th Annual Conference of the American Society for Tropical Medicine & Hygiene) summarizes the progress of this project through October of 2015. For an in-depth description of each slide, see my team's blog at


Stephen A Lauer

October 26, 2015