Banish the ballpark: How not to suck at project estimation

My talk at Deliver Conf 2017, Manchester

Transcript

1. H O W N O T T O S U C K A T E S T I M A T I O N S U Z E H A W O R T H @suzehaworth
2. S O F I R S T LY …
3. YOU ARE NEVER NOT GOING TO SUCK AT ESTIMATION
4. H O W N O T T O S U C K A S M U C H A T E S T I M A T I O N S U Z E H A W O R T H @suzehaworth
5. YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO PREDICT THE FUTURE
6. ESTIMATING A PROJECT IS LIKE FORECASTING THE WEATHER
7. B A N I S H T H E B A L L PA R K
10. M Y 1 5 T O P T I P S F O R B E T T E R E S T I M A T I O N
11. P E O P L E
12. PEOPLE ARE…
13. PEOPLE ARE… FUNDAMENTALLY PEOPLE
14. DALE SHERMON, BEHAVIOURAL ESTIMATING, 2016 We expect these individuals to act logically, to remain independent and objective, to be appropriately qualified and experienced, to work confidently and rationally, all whilst putting the needs of their organisation before their own needs.
15. WE’RE EXPECTING PERFECTION
16. 1 . T H I N K A B O U T P E R S O N A L T I E S
17. P E R S O N A L I T Y T Y P E S Extroversion or Introversion
18. P E R S O N A L I T Y T Y P E S Extroversion or Introversion Judging or Perceiving
19. 2 . W O R K T O A P E R S O N ’ S R H Y T H M
21. DALLAS CALEY http://bit.ly/2jTnWr3 It doesn’t matter that it only took you 1 minute to answer their question. At that time you were 10 minutes into solving the problem in your head and now you’ve forgotten where you were and have to start all over again.
23. 3 . P AY A T T E N T I O N T O G R O U P D Y N A M I C S
24. OR THINGS COULD GET AS AWKWARD AS THIS…
25. Relationship to group Group size Group strength & social identity G R O U P D Y N A M I C S
26. Group strength & social identity Group size Relationship to group G R O U P D Y N A M I C S
27. Group strength & social identity Relationship to group Group size G R O U P D Y N A M I C S
28. 4 . T H I N K A B O U T T H E E F F E C T O F T H E P A S T
29. D U R A T I O N N E G L E C T THE PEAK END RULE
30. D U R A T I O N N E G L E C T 0 17.5 35 52.5 70 April May June July Untitled 1 Untitled 2 Untitled 3 Untitled 4 T H E P E A K T H E E N D
31. 5 . O V E R C O M E N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M
34. O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware
35. O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware Use ‘designated drivers’
36. O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware Use ‘designated drivers’ Group diversity
37. O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware Use ‘designated drivers’ Group diversity Factor in risk and controls
38. T O O L S & T A C T I C S
39. A N A L O G O U S E S T I M A T I N G Know little? Compare to previous, similar projects
40. A N A L O G O U S E S T I M A T I N G Problem This isn't very accurate
41. 6 . R E F U S E T O E S T I M A T E U N K N O W N S
42. MAKE UNKNOWNS MORE KNOWN
43. DON’T BE SCARED TO ASK QUESTIONS
44. DON’T BE SCARED TO ASK QUESTIONS… AND MORE QUESTIONS
45. 7. W O R K W I T H A S S U M P T I O N S
46. THREE POINT ESTIMATING
47. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G PERT
48. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
49. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G 1. Pessimistic cost (P)
50. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G 1. Pessimistic cost (P) 2. Most likely cost (M)
51. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G 1. Pessimistic cost (P) 2. Most likely cost (M) 3. Optimistic cost (O)
52. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G Estimate = P + O + (4 x M)/6
53. 8 . T H I N K A B O U T H O W T O P R E S E N T R E Q U I R E M E N T S
55. 59%
56. 59% 38%
57. 9 . U S E A B A S E L I N E
58. STOP YOUR TEAM THINKING ABOUT THEMSELVES
59. 1 0 . E S T I M A T E I N R E L A T I V E T E R M S
60. R E L A T I V E S C A L E S X feature will take me X hours to build
61. S T O R Y P O I N T S Fibonacci scale: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…
62. W H Y R E L A T I V E E S T I M A T I N G ? Decisions are made around difficulty of work
63. W H Y R E L A T I V E E S T I M A T I N G ? Decisions are made around difficulty of work More accurate over a larger sample
64. W H Y R E L A T I V E E S T I M A T I N G ? M A N C H E S T E R M A N C H E S T E R L O N D O N L E E D S
65. STOP YOUR TEAM THINKING ABOUT THEMSELVES
66. B O T T O M U P E S T I M A T I N G Want the most accurate estimate? Break the work down into the smallest components
67. E S T I M A T I N G U P F R O N T
68. E S T I M A T I N G B Y S C A L E Piece of cake Moderate Average Hard Very difficult Extreme but known Extreme and unknown
69. E S T I M A T I N G B Y S C A L E Piece of cake Moderate Average Hard Very difficult Extreme but known
70. 1 1 . S E E A N E S T I M A T E A S A W H O L E
71. 1 2 . R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
72. Talk about it R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
73. Talk about it Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’ R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
74. Talk about it Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’ Agree with the client how to handle scope creep R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
75. Talk about it Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’ Agree with the client how to handle scope creep Provide a confidence level R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
76. 1 3 . H O L D A P R E M O R T E M
77. “THE PROJECT FAILED. WHY?”
78. E S T I M A T I O N … A N D B E Y O N D
79. 1 4 . T H I N K A B O U T Y O U R P L A N
82. 1 5 . D O N ’ T M A K E E S T I M A T I O N A O N E O F F
83. AN ESTIMATE IS A GUESS IN A CLEAN T-SHIRT RON JEFFRIES
84. T H A N K S ! S U Z E H A W O R T H @suzehaworth