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Banish the ballpark: How not to suck at project estimation

5f17d9fc5e9243aee9d500ab931a396b?s=47 Suze Haworth
January 26, 2017
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Banish the ballpark: How not to suck at project estimation

My talk at Deliver Conf 2017, Manchester

5f17d9fc5e9243aee9d500ab931a396b?s=128

Suze Haworth

January 26, 2017
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Transcript

  1. H O W N O T T O S U

    C K A T E S T I M A T I O N S U Z E H A W O R T H @suzehaworth
  2. S O F I R S T LY …

  3. YOU ARE NEVER NOT GOING TO SUCK AT ESTIMATION

  4. H O W N O T T O S U

    C K A S M U C H A T E S T I M A T I O N S U Z E H A W O R T H @suzehaworth
  5. YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO PREDICT THE FUTURE

  6. ESTIMATING A PROJECT IS LIKE FORECASTING THE WEATHER

  7. B A N I S H T H E B

    A L L PA R K
  8. None
  9. None
  10. M Y 1 5 T O P T I P

    S F O R B E T T E R E S T I M A T I O N
  11. P E O P L E

  12. PEOPLE ARE…

  13. PEOPLE ARE… FUNDAMENTALLY PEOPLE

  14. DALE SHERMON, BEHAVIOURAL ESTIMATING, 2016 We expect these individuals to

    act logically, to remain independent and objective, to be appropriately qualified and experienced, to work confidently and rationally, all whilst putting the needs of their organisation before their own needs.
  15. WE’RE EXPECTING PERFECTION

  16. 1 . T H I N K A B O

    U T P E R S O N A L T I E S
  17. P E R S O N A L I T

    Y T Y P E S Extroversion or Introversion
  18. P E R S O N A L I T

    Y T Y P E S Extroversion or Introversion Judging or Perceiving
  19. 2 . W O R K T O A P

    E R S O N ’ S R H Y T H M
  20. None
  21. DALLAS CALEY http://bit.ly/2jTnWr3 It doesn’t matter that it only took

    you 1 minute to answer their question. At that time you were 10 minutes into solving the problem in your head and now you’ve forgotten where you were and have to start all over again.
  22. None
  23. 3 . P AY A T T E N T

    I O N T O G R O U P D Y N A M I C S
  24. OR THINGS COULD GET AS AWKWARD AS THIS…

  25. Relationship to group Group size Group strength & social identity

    G R O U P D Y N A M I C S
  26. Group strength & social identity Group size Relationship to group

    G R O U P D Y N A M I C S
  27. Group strength & social identity Relationship to group Group size

    G R O U P D Y N A M I C S
  28. 4 . T H I N K A B O

    U T T H E E F F E C T O F T H E P A S T
  29. D U R A T I O N N E

    G L E C T THE PEAK END RULE
  30. D U R A T I O N N E

    G L E C T 0 17.5 35 52.5 70 April May June July Untitled 1 Untitled 2 Untitled 3 Untitled 4 T H E P E A K T H E E N D
  31. 5 . O V E R C O M E

    N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M
  32. None
  33. None
  34. O V E R C O M I N G

    N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware
  35. O V E R C O M I N G

    N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware Use ‘designated drivers’
  36. O V E R C O M I N G

    N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware Use ‘designated drivers’ Group diversity
  37. O V E R C O M I N G

    N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware Use ‘designated drivers’ Group diversity Factor in risk and controls
  38. T O O L S & T A C T

    I C S
  39. A N A L O G O U S E

    S T I M A T I N G Know little? Compare to previous, similar projects
  40. A N A L O G O U S E

    S T I M A T I N G Problem This isn't very accurate
  41. 6 . R E F U S E T O

    E S T I M A T E U N K N O W N S
  42. MAKE UNKNOWNS MORE KNOWN

  43. DON’T BE SCARED TO ASK QUESTIONS

  44. DON’T BE SCARED TO ASK QUESTIONS… AND MORE QUESTIONS

  45. 7. W O R K W I T H A

    S S U M P T I O N S
  46. THREE POINT ESTIMATING

  47. T H R E E P O I N T

    E S T I M A T I N G PERT
  48. T H R E E P O I N T

    E S T I M A T I N G PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
  49. T H R E E P O I N T

    E S T I M A T I N G 1. Pessimistic cost (P)
  50. T H R E E P O I N T

    E S T I M A T I N G 1. Pessimistic cost (P) 2. Most likely cost (M)
  51. T H R E E P O I N T

    E S T I M A T I N G 1. Pessimistic cost (P) 2. Most likely cost (M) 3. Optimistic cost (O)
  52. T H R E E P O I N T

    E S T I M A T I N G Estimate = P + O + (4 x M)/6
  53. 8 . T H I N K A B O

    U T H O W T O P R E S E N T R E Q U I R E M E N T S
  54. None
  55. 59%

  56. 59% 38%

  57. 9 . U S E A B A S E

    L I N E
  58. STOP YOUR TEAM THINKING ABOUT THEMSELVES

  59. 1 0 . E S T I M A T

    E I N R E L A T I V E T E R M S
  60. R E L A T I V E S C

    A L E S X feature will take me X hours to build
  61. S T O R Y P O I N T

    S Fibonacci scale: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…
  62. W H Y R E L A T I V

    E E S T I M A T I N G ? Decisions are made around difficulty of work
  63. W H Y R E L A T I V

    E E S T I M A T I N G ? Decisions are made around difficulty of work More accurate over a larger sample
  64. W H Y R E L A T I V

    E E S T I M A T I N G ? M A N C H E S T E R M A N C H E S T E R L O N D O N L E E D S
  65. STOP YOUR TEAM THINKING ABOUT THEMSELVES

  66. B O T T O M U P E S

    T I M A T I N G Want the most accurate estimate? Break the work down into the smallest components
  67. E S T I M A T I N G

    U P F R O N T
  68. E S T I M A T I N G

    B Y S C A L E Piece of cake Moderate Average Hard Very difficult Extreme but known Extreme and unknown
  69. E S T I M A T I N G

    B Y S C A L E Piece of cake Moderate Average Hard Very difficult Extreme but known
  70. 1 1 . S E E A N E S

    T I M A T E A S A W H O L E
  71. 1 2 . R E C O G N I

    S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
  72. Talk about it R E C O G N I

    S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
  73. Talk about it Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’ R E C

    O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
  74. Talk about it Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’ Agree with the

    client how to handle scope creep R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
  75. Talk about it Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’ Agree with the

    client how to handle scope creep Provide a confidence level R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
  76. 1 3 . H O L D A P R

    E M O R T E M
  77. “THE PROJECT FAILED. WHY?”

  78. E S T I M A T I O N

    … A N D B E Y O N D
  79. 1 4 . T H I N K A B

    O U T Y O U R P L A N
  80. None
  81. None
  82. 1 5 . D O N ’ T M A

    K E E S T I M A T I O N A O N E O F F
  83. AN ESTIMATE IS A GUESS IN A CLEAN T-SHIRT RON

    JEFFRIES
  84. T H A N K S ! S U Z

    E H A W O R T H @suzehaworth