Banish the ballpark: How not to suck at project estimation

My talk at Deliver Conf 2017, Manchester

Transcript

1. H O W N O T T O S U C K A T
   E S T I M A T I O N
   S U Z E H A W O R T H
   @suzehaworth
   

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2. S O F I R S T LY …
   

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3. YOU ARE NEVER NOT
   GOING TO SUCK AT
   ESTIMATION
   

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4. H O W N O T T O S U C K A S
   M U C H A T E S T I M A T I O N
   S U Z E H A W O R T H
   @suzehaworth
   

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5. YOU ARE BEING ASKED
   TO PREDICT THE FUTURE
   

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6. ESTIMATING A PROJECT IS
   LIKE FORECASTING THE
   WEATHER
   

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7. B A N I S H T H E B A L L PA R K
   

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10. M Y 1 5 T O P T I P S F O R
    B E T T E R E S T I M A T I O N
    

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11. P E O P L E
    

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12. PEOPLE ARE…
    

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13. PEOPLE ARE…
    FUNDAMENTALLY
    PEOPLE
    

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14. DALE SHERMON, BEHAVIOURAL
    ESTIMATING, 2016
    We expect these individuals to act logically, to remain
    independent and objective, to be appropriately qualified
    and experienced, to work confidently and rationally, all
    whilst putting the needs of their organisation before their
    own needs.
    

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15. WE’RE EXPECTING
    PERFECTION
    

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16. 1 . T H I N K A B O U T
    P E R S O N A L T I E S
    

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17. P E R S O N A L I T Y T Y P E S
    Extroversion or Introversion
    

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18. P E R S O N A L I T Y T Y P E S
    Extroversion or Introversion
    Judging or Perceiving
    

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19. 2 . W O R K T O A P E R S O N ’ S
    R H Y T H M
    

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21. DALLAS CALEY
    http://bit.ly/2jTnWr3
    It doesn’t matter that it only took you 1 minute to
    answer their question. At that time you were 10 minutes
    into solving the problem in your head and now you’ve
    forgotten where you were and have to start all over
    again.
    

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23. 3 . P AY A T T E N T I O N T O
    G R O U P D Y N A M I C S
    

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24. OR THINGS COULD
    GET AS AWKWARD
    AS THIS…
    

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25. Relationship to
    group
    Group size
    Group strength &
    social identity
    G R O U P D Y N A M I C S
    

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26. Group strength &
    social identity
    Group size
    Relationship to
    group
    G R O U P D Y N A M I C S
    

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27. Group strength &
    social identity
    Relationship to
    group
    Group size
    G R O U P D Y N A M I C S
    

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28. 4 . T H I N K A B O U T T H E
    E F F E C T O F T H E P A S T
    

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29. D U R A T I O N N E G L E C T
    THE PEAK END RULE
    

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30. D U R A T I O N N E G L E C T
    0
    17.5
    35
    52.5
    70
    April May June July Untitled 1 Untitled 2 Untitled 3 Untitled 4
    T H E P E A K
    T H E E N D
    

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31. 5 . O V E R C O M E N A T U R A L
    O P T I M I S M
    

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34. O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M
    Be aware
    

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35. O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M
    Be aware
    Use ‘designated drivers’
    

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36. O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M
    Be aware
    Use ‘designated drivers’
    Group diversity
    

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37. O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M
    Be aware
    Use ‘designated drivers’
    Group diversity
    Factor in risk and controls
    

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38. T O O L S & T A C T I C S
    

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39. A N A L O G O U S E S T I M A T I N G
    Know little?
    Compare to previous, similar projects
    

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40. A N A L O G O U S E S T I M A T I N G
    Problem
    This isn't very accurate
    

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41. 6 . R E F U S E T O E S T I M A T E
    U N K N O W N S
    

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42. MAKE UNKNOWNS MORE
    KNOWN
    

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43. DON’T BE SCARED TO ASK
    QUESTIONS
    

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44. DON’T BE SCARED TO ASK
    QUESTIONS… AND MORE
    QUESTIONS
    

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45. 7. W O R K W I T H
    A S S U M P T I O N S
    

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46. THREE POINT ESTIMATING
    

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47. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G
    PERT
    

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48. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G
    PERT
    (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
    

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49. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G
    1. Pessimistic cost (P)
    

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50. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G
    1. Pessimistic cost (P)
    2. Most likely cost (M)
    

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51. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G
    1. Pessimistic cost (P)
    2. Most likely cost (M)
    3. Optimistic cost (O)
    

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52. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G
    Estimate = P + O + (4 x M)/6
    

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53. 8 . T H I N K A B O U T H O W T O
    P R E S E N T R E Q U I R E M E N T S
    

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55. 59%
    

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56. 59% 38%
    

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57. 9 . U S E A B A S E L I N E
    

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58. STOP YOUR TEAM
    THINKING ABOUT
    THEMSELVES
    

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59. 1 0 . E S T I M A T E I N
    R E L A T I V E T E R M S
    

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60. R E L A T I V E S C A L E S
    X feature will take me X hours to build
    

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61. S T O R Y P O I N T S
    Fibonacci scale: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…
    

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62. W H Y R E L A T I V E E S T I M A T I N G ?
    Decisions are made around difficulty
    of work
    

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63. W H Y R E L A T I V E E S T I M A T I N G ?
    Decisions are made around difficulty
    of work
    More accurate over a larger sample
    

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64. W H Y R E L A T I V E E S T I M A T I N G ?
    M A N C H E S T E R
    M A N C H E S T E R L O N D O N
    L E E D S
    

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65. STOP YOUR TEAM
    THINKING ABOUT
    THEMSELVES
    

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66. B O T T O M U P E S T I M A T I N G
    Want the most accurate estimate?
    Break the work down into the smallest
    components
    

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67. E S T I M A T I N G U P F R O N T
    

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68. E S T I M A T I N G B Y S C A L E
    Piece of
    cake
    Moderate Average Hard
    Very
    difficult
    Extreme
    but known
    Extreme and unknown
    

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69. E S T I M A T I N G B Y S C A L E
    Piece of
    cake
    Moderate Average Hard
    Very
    difficult
    Extreme
    but known
    

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70. 1 1 . S E E A N E S T I M A T E A S
    A W H O L E
    

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71. 1 2 . R E C O G N I S E
    U N C E R T A I N T Y
    

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72. Talk about it
    R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
    

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73. Talk about it
    Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’
    R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
    

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74. Talk about it
    Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’
    Agree with the client how to handle scope
    creep
    R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
    

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75. Talk about it
    Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’
    Agree with the client how to handle scope
    creep
    Provide a confidence level
    R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
    

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76. 1 3 . H O L D A P R E M O R T E M
    

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77. “THE PROJECT FAILED.
    WHY?”
    

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78. E S T I M A T I O N … A N D
    B E Y O N D
    

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79. 1 4 . T H I N K A B O U T Y O U R
    P L A N
    

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82. 1 5 . D O N ’ T M A K E
    E S T I M A T I O N A O N E O F F
    

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83. AN ESTIMATE IS A GUESS
    IN A CLEAN T-SHIRT
    RON JEFFRIES
    

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84. T H A N K S !
    S U Z E H A W O R T H
    @suzehaworth
    

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