Banish the ballpark: How not to suck at project estimation

5f17d9fc5e9243aee9d500ab931a396b?s=47 Suze Haworth
January 26, 2017
36

Banish the ballpark: How not to suck at project estimation

My talk at Deliver Conf 2017, Manchester

5f17d9fc5e9243aee9d500ab931a396b?s=128

Suze Haworth

January 26, 2017
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Transcript

  1. 1.

    H O W N O T T O S U

    C K A T E S T I M A T I O N S U Z E H A W O R T H @suzehaworth
  2. 4.

    H O W N O T T O S U

    C K A S M U C H A T E S T I M A T I O N S U Z E H A W O R T H @suzehaworth
  3. 7.

    B A N I S H T H E B

    A L L PA R K
  4. 8.
  5. 9.
  6. 10.

    M Y 1 5 T O P T I P

    S F O R B E T T E R E S T I M A T I O N
  7. 14.

    DALE SHERMON, BEHAVIOURAL ESTIMATING, 2016 We expect these individuals to

    act logically, to remain independent and objective, to be appropriately qualified and experienced, to work confidently and rationally, all whilst putting the needs of their organisation before their own needs.
  8. 16.

    1 . T H I N K A B O

    U T P E R S O N A L T I E S
  9. 17.

    P E R S O N A L I T

    Y T Y P E S Extroversion or Introversion
  10. 18.

    P E R S O N A L I T

    Y T Y P E S Extroversion or Introversion Judging or Perceiving
  11. 19.

    2 . W O R K T O A P

    E R S O N ’ S R H Y T H M
  12. 20.
  13. 21.

    DALLAS CALEY http://bit.ly/2jTnWr3 It doesn’t matter that it only took

    you 1 minute to answer their question. At that time you were 10 minutes into solving the problem in your head and now you’ve forgotten where you were and have to start all over again.
  14. 22.
  15. 23.

    3 . P AY A T T E N T

    I O N T O G R O U P D Y N A M I C S
  16. 28.

    4 . T H I N K A B O

    U T T H E E F F E C T O F T H E P A S T
  17. 29.

    D U R A T I O N N E

    G L E C T THE PEAK END RULE
  18. 30.

    D U R A T I O N N E

    G L E C T 0 17.5 35 52.5 70 April May June July Untitled 1 Untitled 2 Untitled 3 Untitled 4 T H E P E A K T H E E N D
  19. 31.

    5 . O V E R C O M E

    N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M
  20. 32.
  21. 33.
  22. 34.

    O V E R C O M I N G

    N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware
  23. 35.

    O V E R C O M I N G

    N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware Use ‘designated drivers’
  24. 36.

    O V E R C O M I N G

    N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware Use ‘designated drivers’ Group diversity
  25. 37.

    O V E R C O M I N G

    N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware Use ‘designated drivers’ Group diversity Factor in risk and controls
  26. 39.

    A N A L O G O U S E

    S T I M A T I N G Know little? Compare to previous, similar projects
  27. 40.

    A N A L O G O U S E

    S T I M A T I N G Problem This isn't very accurate
  28. 41.

    6 . R E F U S E T O

    E S T I M A T E U N K N O W N S
  29. 45.

    7. W O R K W I T H A

    S S U M P T I O N S
  30. 47.

    T H R E E P O I N T

    E S T I M A T I N G PERT
  31. 48.

    T H R E E P O I N T

    E S T I M A T I N G PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
  32. 49.

    T H R E E P O I N T

    E S T I M A T I N G 1. Pessimistic cost (P)
  33. 50.

    T H R E E P O I N T

    E S T I M A T I N G 1. Pessimistic cost (P) 2. Most likely cost (M)
  34. 51.

    T H R E E P O I N T

    E S T I M A T I N G 1. Pessimistic cost (P) 2. Most likely cost (M) 3. Optimistic cost (O)
  35. 52.

    T H R E E P O I N T

    E S T I M A T I N G Estimate = P + O + (4 x M)/6
  36. 53.

    8 . T H I N K A B O

    U T H O W T O P R E S E N T R E Q U I R E M E N T S
  37. 54.
  38. 55.

    59%

  39. 56.
  40. 57.
  41. 59.

    1 0 . E S T I M A T

    E I N R E L A T I V E T E R M S
  42. 60.

    R E L A T I V E S C

    A L E S X feature will take me X hours to build
  43. 61.

    S T O R Y P O I N T

    S Fibonacci scale: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…
  44. 62.

    W H Y R E L A T I V

    E E S T I M A T I N G ? Decisions are made around difficulty of work
  45. 63.

    W H Y R E L A T I V

    E E S T I M A T I N G ? Decisions are made around difficulty of work More accurate over a larger sample
  46. 64.

    W H Y R E L A T I V

    E E S T I M A T I N G ? M A N C H E S T E R M A N C H E S T E R L O N D O N L E E D S
  47. 66.

    B O T T O M U P E S

    T I M A T I N G Want the most accurate estimate? Break the work down into the smallest components
  48. 67.

    E S T I M A T I N G

    U P F R O N T
  49. 68.

    E S T I M A T I N G

    B Y S C A L E Piece of cake Moderate Average Hard Very difficult Extreme but known Extreme and unknown
  50. 69.

    E S T I M A T I N G

    B Y S C A L E Piece of cake Moderate Average Hard Very difficult Extreme but known
  51. 70.

    1 1 . S E E A N E S

    T I M A T E A S A W H O L E
  52. 71.

    1 2 . R E C O G N I

    S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
  53. 72.

    Talk about it R E C O G N I

    S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
  54. 74.

    Talk about it Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’ Agree with the

    client how to handle scope creep R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
  55. 75.

    Talk about it Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’ Agree with the

    client how to handle scope creep Provide a confidence level R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y
  56. 76.

    1 3 . H O L D A P R

    E M O R T E M
  57. 78.

    E S T I M A T I O N

    … A N D B E Y O N D
  58. 79.

    1 4 . T H I N K A B

    O U T Y O U R P L A N
  59. 80.
  60. 81.
  61. 82.

    1 5 . D O N ’ T M A

    K E E S T I M A T I O N A O N E O F F
  62. 84.

    T H A N K S ! S U Z

    E H A W O R T H @suzehaworth