Upgrade to Pro — share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …

Banish the ballpark: How not to suck at project estimation

Suze Haworth
January 26, 2017
180

Banish the ballpark: How not to suck at project estimation

My talk at Deliver Conf 2017, Manchester

Suze Haworth

January 26, 2017
Tweet

Transcript

  1. H O W N O T T O S U C K A T
    E S T I M A T I O N
    S U Z E H A W O R T H
    @suzehaworth

    View Slide

  2. S O F I R S T LY …

    View Slide

  3. YOU ARE NEVER NOT
    GOING TO SUCK AT
    ESTIMATION

    View Slide

  4. H O W N O T T O S U C K A S
    M U C H A T E S T I M A T I O N
    S U Z E H A W O R T H
    @suzehaworth

    View Slide

  5. YOU ARE BEING ASKED
    TO PREDICT THE FUTURE

    View Slide

  6. ESTIMATING A PROJECT IS
    LIKE FORECASTING THE
    WEATHER

    View Slide

  7. B A N I S H T H E B A L L PA R K

    View Slide

  8. View Slide

  9. View Slide

  10. M Y 1 5 T O P T I P S F O R
    B E T T E R E S T I M A T I O N

    View Slide

  11. P E O P L E

    View Slide

  12. PEOPLE ARE…

    View Slide

  13. PEOPLE ARE…
    FUNDAMENTALLY
    PEOPLE

    View Slide

  14. DALE SHERMON, BEHAVIOURAL
    ESTIMATING, 2016
    We expect these individuals to act logically, to remain
    independent and objective, to be appropriately qualified
    and experienced, to work confidently and rationally, all
    whilst putting the needs of their organisation before their
    own needs.

    View Slide

  15. WE’RE EXPECTING
    PERFECTION

    View Slide

  16. 1 . T H I N K A B O U T
    P E R S O N A L T I E S

    View Slide

  17. P E R S O N A L I T Y T Y P E S
    Extroversion or Introversion

    View Slide

  18. P E R S O N A L I T Y T Y P E S
    Extroversion or Introversion
    Judging or Perceiving

    View Slide

  19. 2 . W O R K T O A P E R S O N ’ S
    R H Y T H M

    View Slide

  20. View Slide

  21. DALLAS CALEY
    http://bit.ly/2jTnWr3
    It doesn’t matter that it only took you 1 minute to
    answer their question. At that time you were 10 minutes
    into solving the problem in your head and now you’ve
    forgotten where you were and have to start all over
    again.

    View Slide

  22. View Slide

  23. 3 . P AY A T T E N T I O N T O
    G R O U P D Y N A M I C S

    View Slide

  24. OR THINGS COULD
    GET AS AWKWARD
    AS THIS…

    View Slide

  25. Relationship to
    group
    Group size
    Group strength &
    social identity
    G R O U P D Y N A M I C S

    View Slide

  26. Group strength &
    social identity
    Group size
    Relationship to
    group
    G R O U P D Y N A M I C S

    View Slide

  27. Group strength &
    social identity
    Relationship to
    group
    Group size
    G R O U P D Y N A M I C S

    View Slide

  28. 4 . T H I N K A B O U T T H E
    E F F E C T O F T H E P A S T

    View Slide

  29. D U R A T I O N N E G L E C T
    THE PEAK END RULE

    View Slide

  30. D U R A T I O N N E G L E C T
    0
    17.5
    35
    52.5
    70
    April May June July Untitled 1 Untitled 2 Untitled 3 Untitled 4
    T H E P E A K
    T H E E N D

    View Slide

  31. 5 . O V E R C O M E N A T U R A L
    O P T I M I S M

    View Slide

  32. View Slide

  33. View Slide

  34. O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M
    Be aware

    View Slide

  35. O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M
    Be aware
    Use ‘designated drivers’

    View Slide

  36. O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M
    Be aware
    Use ‘designated drivers’
    Group diversity

    View Slide

  37. O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M
    Be aware
    Use ‘designated drivers’
    Group diversity
    Factor in risk and controls

    View Slide

  38. T O O L S & T A C T I C S

    View Slide

  39. A N A L O G O U S E S T I M A T I N G
    Know little?
    Compare to previous, similar projects

    View Slide

  40. A N A L O G O U S E S T I M A T I N G
    Problem
    This isn't very accurate

    View Slide

  41. 6 . R E F U S E T O E S T I M A T E
    U N K N O W N S

    View Slide

  42. MAKE UNKNOWNS MORE
    KNOWN

    View Slide

  43. DON’T BE SCARED TO ASK
    QUESTIONS

    View Slide

  44. DON’T BE SCARED TO ASK
    QUESTIONS… AND MORE
    QUESTIONS

    View Slide

  45. 7. W O R K W I T H
    A S S U M P T I O N S

    View Slide

  46. THREE POINT ESTIMATING

    View Slide

  47. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G
    PERT

    View Slide

  48. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G
    PERT
    (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)

    View Slide

  49. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G
    1. Pessimistic cost (P)

    View Slide

  50. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G
    1. Pessimistic cost (P)
    2. Most likely cost (M)

    View Slide

  51. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G
    1. Pessimistic cost (P)
    2. Most likely cost (M)
    3. Optimistic cost (O)

    View Slide

  52. T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G
    Estimate = P + O + (4 x M)/6

    View Slide

  53. 8 . T H I N K A B O U T H O W T O
    P R E S E N T R E Q U I R E M E N T S

    View Slide

  54. View Slide

  55. 59%

    View Slide

  56. 59% 38%

    View Slide

  57. 9 . U S E A B A S E L I N E

    View Slide

  58. STOP YOUR TEAM
    THINKING ABOUT
    THEMSELVES

    View Slide

  59. 1 0 . E S T I M A T E I N
    R E L A T I V E T E R M S

    View Slide

  60. R E L A T I V E S C A L E S
    X feature will take me X hours to build

    View Slide

  61. S T O R Y P O I N T S
    Fibonacci scale: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…

    View Slide

  62. W H Y R E L A T I V E E S T I M A T I N G ?
    Decisions are made around difficulty
    of work

    View Slide

  63. W H Y R E L A T I V E E S T I M A T I N G ?
    Decisions are made around difficulty
    of work
    More accurate over a larger sample

    View Slide

  64. W H Y R E L A T I V E E S T I M A T I N G ?
    M A N C H E S T E R
    M A N C H E S T E R L O N D O N
    L E E D S

    View Slide

  65. STOP YOUR TEAM
    THINKING ABOUT
    THEMSELVES

    View Slide

  66. B O T T O M U P E S T I M A T I N G
    Want the most accurate estimate?
    Break the work down into the smallest
    components

    View Slide

  67. E S T I M A T I N G U P F R O N T

    View Slide

  68. E S T I M A T I N G B Y S C A L E
    Piece of
    cake
    Moderate Average Hard
    Very
    difficult
    Extreme
    but known
    Extreme and unknown

    View Slide

  69. E S T I M A T I N G B Y S C A L E
    Piece of
    cake
    Moderate Average Hard
    Very
    difficult
    Extreme
    but known

    View Slide

  70. 1 1 . S E E A N E S T I M A T E A S
    A W H O L E

    View Slide

  71. 1 2 . R E C O G N I S E
    U N C E R T A I N T Y

    View Slide

  72. Talk about it
    R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y

    View Slide

  73. Talk about it
    Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’
    R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y

    View Slide

  74. Talk about it
    Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’
    Agree with the client how to handle scope
    creep
    R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y

    View Slide

  75. Talk about it
    Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’
    Agree with the client how to handle scope
    creep
    Provide a confidence level
    R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y

    View Slide

  76. 1 3 . H O L D A P R E M O R T E M

    View Slide

  77. “THE PROJECT FAILED.
    WHY?”

    View Slide

  78. E S T I M A T I O N … A N D
    B E Y O N D

    View Slide

  79. 1 4 . T H I N K A B O U T Y O U R
    P L A N

    View Slide

  80. View Slide

  81. View Slide

  82. 1 5 . D O N ’ T M A K E
    E S T I M A T I O N A O N E O F F

    View Slide

  83. AN ESTIMATE IS A GUESS
    IN A CLEAN T-SHIRT
    RON JEFFRIES

    View Slide

  84. T H A N K S !
    S U Z E H A W O R T H
    @suzehaworth

    View Slide