RockyMountain 2015: Prepare yourself against Zombie epidemic

The news is everywhere: some weird disease makes the dead walking. We do not know yet if it is highly contagious. What should we do? What we do everyday: writing code. We can develop an agent based model, simulate the disease, and hopefully find the best strategy to survive. We can code, we'll be prepared ... or not.

code: https://github.com/toch/zombie_epidemic

Transcript

2. Christophe toch _toch
3. Benjamin Lehman, ©2011
4. Benjamin Lehman, ©2011 Prepare yourself against Zombie epidemic
5. Agent Based Model
11. Agent Based Model
12. Map National Geographics, ©2011
13. map = Map.new(4, 4)
14. point = Point.new point_north = Point.new point.neighborhood[:north] = point_north point_north.neighborhood[:south] = point # ...
15. John DellAngelo, ©2013 Agent
16. agent = Agent.new(age, start_point, stm)
17. agent.perceive # => {}
18. agent.act # => :walk agent.walk(:east)
19. agent.age # => 1
20. agent.commit # => #<ZombieEpidemic::State:... # @name=:susceptible, ...
21. State
22. state = State.new(:susceptible) state.define_possible_actions( ->(agent) { [:walk, :stay, :fight].sample } )
23. state.decide_action_for(agent) # => :walk
24. infected = State.new(:susceptible) state.add_transition( infected, ->(state, agent) { true } )
25. state.trigger_transition(agent) # => #<ZombieEpidemic::State:... # @name=:infected, ...
26. State Transition Machine
27. stm = StateTransitionMachine.new # create states: # - susceptible # - infected # - zombie # - dead # create transitions # set default initial state
28. Simulation Loop
29. steps = 100 agents = create_the_agents steps.times do agents.each do |agent| agent.act; agent.age end agents.each { |agent| agent.commit } remove_the_deads(agents) end
30. steps = 100 agents = create_the_agents steps.times do agents.each do |agent| agent.act; agent.age end agents.each { |agent| agent.commit } remove_the_deads(agents) end
31. steps = 100 agents = create_the_agents steps.times do agents.each do |agent| agent.act; agent.age end agents.each { |agent| agent.commit } remove_the_deads(agents) end
32. steps = 100 agents = create_the_agents steps.times do agents.each do |agent| agent.act; agent.age end agents.each { |agent| agent.commit } remove_the_deads(agents) end
33. steps = 100 agents = create_the_agents steps.times do agents.each do |agent| agent.act; agent.age end agents.each { |agent| agent.commit } remove_the_deads(agents) end
34. steps = 100 agents = create_the_agents steps.times do agents.each do |agent| agent.act; agent.age end agents.each { |agent| agent.commit } remove_the_deads(agents) end
35. steps = 100 agents = create_the_agents steps.times do agents.each do |agent| agent.act; agent.age end agents.each { |agent| agent.commit } remove_the_deads(agents) end
36. steps = 100 agents = create_the_agents steps.times do agents.each do |agent| agent.act; agent.age end agents.each { |agent| agent.commit } remove_the_deads(agents) end
37. steps = 100 agents = create_the_agents steps.times do agents.each do |agent| agent.act; agent.age end agents.each { |agent| agent.commit } remove_the_deads(agents) end
39. Validation & Calibration
40. # validation == integration test # # check: # - obvious case # - against theoretical model # - against real data
41. # not everything known # so calibration: # # varying a few parameters # to get what you want
42. Simulate & Prepare yourself
44. Outro
45. ? toch _toch toch/zombie_epidemic