RockyMountain 2015: Prepare yourself against Zombie epidemic

The news is everywhere: some weird disease makes the dead walking. We do not know yet if it is highly contagious. What should we do? What we do everyday: writing code. We can develop an agent based model, simulate the disease, and hopefully find the best strategy to survive. We can code, we'll be prepared ... or not.

code: https://github.com/toch/zombie_epidemic

Transcript

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2. Christophe
   toch
   _toch
   

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3. Benjamin Lehman, ©2011
   

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4. Benjamin Lehman, ©2011
   Prepare yourself
   against
   Zombie epidemic
   

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5. Agent
   Based
   Model
   

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11. Agent
    Based
    Model
    

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12. Map
    National Geographics, ©2011
    

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13. map = Map.new(4, 4)
    

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14. point = Point.new
    point_north = Point.new
    point.neighborhood[:north] = point_north
    point_north.neighborhood[:south] = point
    # ...
    

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15. John DellAngelo, ©2013
    Agent
    

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16. agent = Agent.new(age, start_point, stm)
    

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17. agent.perceive
    # => {}
    

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18. agent.act
    # => :walk
    agent.walk(:east)
    

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19. agent.age
    # => 1
    

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20. agent.commit
    # => ## @name=:susceptible, ...
    

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21. State
    

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22. state = State.new(:susceptible)
    state.define_possible_actions(
    ->(agent) {
    [:walk, :stay, :fight].sample
    }
    )
    

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23. state.decide_action_for(agent)
    # => :walk
    

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24. infected = State.new(:susceptible)
    state.add_transition(
    infected,
    ->(state, agent) {
    true
    }
    )
    

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25. state.trigger_transition(agent)
    # => ## @name=:infected, ...
    

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26. State
    Transition
    Machine
    

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27. stm = StateTransitionMachine.new
    # create states:
    # - susceptible
    # - infected
    # - zombie
    # - dead
    # create transitions
    # set default initial state
    

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28. Simulation
    Loop
    

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29. steps = 100
    agents = create_the_agents
    steps.times do
    agents.each do |agent|
    agent.act; agent.age
    end
    agents.each { |agent| agent.commit }
    remove_the_deads(agents)
    end
    

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30. steps = 100
    agents = create_the_agents
    steps.times do
    agents.each do |agent|
    agent.act; agent.age
    end
    agents.each { |agent| agent.commit }
    remove_the_deads(agents)
    end
    

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31. steps = 100
    agents = create_the_agents
    steps.times do
    agents.each do |agent|
    agent.act; agent.age
    end
    agents.each { |agent| agent.commit }
    remove_the_deads(agents)
    end
    

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32. steps = 100
    agents = create_the_agents
    steps.times do
    agents.each do |agent|
    agent.act; agent.age
    end
    agents.each { |agent| agent.commit }
    remove_the_deads(agents)
    end
    

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33. steps = 100
    agents = create_the_agents
    steps.times do
    agents.each do |agent|
    agent.act; agent.age
    end
    agents.each { |agent| agent.commit }
    remove_the_deads(agents)
    end
    

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34. steps = 100
    agents = create_the_agents
    steps.times do
    agents.each do |agent|
    agent.act; agent.age
    end
    agents.each { |agent| agent.commit }
    remove_the_deads(agents)
    end
    

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35. steps = 100
    agents = create_the_agents
    steps.times do
    agents.each do |agent|
    agent.act; agent.age
    end
    agents.each { |agent| agent.commit }
    remove_the_deads(agents)
    end
    

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36. steps = 100
    agents = create_the_agents
    steps.times do
    agents.each do |agent|
    agent.act; agent.age
    end
    agents.each { |agent| agent.commit }
    remove_the_deads(agents)
    end
    

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37. steps = 100
    agents = create_the_agents
    steps.times do
    agents.each do |agent|
    agent.act; agent.age
    end
    agents.each { |agent| agent.commit }
    remove_the_deads(agents)
    end
    

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39. Validation
    &
    Calibration
    

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40. # validation == integration test
    #
    # check:
    # - obvious case
    # - against theoretical model
    # - against real data
    

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41. # not everything known
    # so calibration:
    #
    # varying a few parameters
    # to get what you want
    

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42. Simulate
    &
    Prepare yourself
    

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44. Outro
    

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45. ?
    toch
    _toch
    toch/zombie_epidemic
    

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