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第3回予測市場勉強会資料・Googleにおける社内予測市場

Avatar for Yuya-Furusawa Yuya-Furusawa
September 09, 2019

 第3回予測市場勉強会資料・Googleにおける社内予測市場

2019/09/09
第3回予測市場勉強会
「Googleにおける社内予測市場」
https://eagna.io/

Avatar for Yuya-Furusawa

Yuya-Furusawa

September 09, 2019
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  1. ࣾ಺༧ଌࢢ৔ಛ༗ͷ໰୊ • τϨʔμʔͷগͳ͞ʢThin Market Problemʣ • औҾ૬ख͕ݟ͔ͭΒͳ͍Մೳੑ • ࢀՃऀ͕ݶΒΕ͍ͯΔ •

    ৘ใͷଟ༷ੑ͕ࣦΘΕΔՄೳੑ • ࣾ಺༧ଌࢢ৔͸͜ΕΒͷ໰୊Λ๊͑ͳ͕Βਫ਼ ౓ͷߴ͍༧ଌ͕Ͱ͖Δ͔ʁʁ
  2. Google Prediction Market • 2005೥ɺBo CowgillΒʹΑͬͯ։࢝ • ܦࡁֶऀHal Varianͷαϙʔτ •

    ͦͷ༧ଌͷਖ਼֬ੑͳͲ͔Βଞͷاۀ΋ࣾ಺༧ ଌࢢ৔Λͭ͘ΔΑ͏ʹ • ༧ଌࢢ৔͕޿͘஌ΒΕΔΑ͏ʹͳͬͨܖػ
  3. ΋ͬͱ஌Γ͍ͨਓ͸ • ʮී௨ͷਓͨͪΛ༬ݴऀʹม͑Δʰ༧ଌࢢ৔ʱͱ͍ ͏৽ઓུʯɺυφϧυɾτϯϓιϯ • Google Official Blog ``Putting crowd

    wisdom to work” (https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/ putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html) • Prediction markets at Google(https:// www.slideshare.net/nimesh94/prediction-markets- at-google-gpm)
  4. ΋ͬͱ஌Γ͍ͨਓ͸ • “Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and

    Firm X”, Cowgill and Zitzewitz, Review of Economic Studies, 2015 • “Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google”, Cowgill, Wolfers and Zitzewitz, 2009
  5. Q&A