'Managing under Conditions of Uncertainty' by Dave Snowden

Managing under conditions of uncertainty: lessons from the natural sciences. One of key quotes: “You can’t design a complex adaptive system, you stimulate it with multiple ‘safe to fail’ experiments to see what the evolutionary potentials of the present are. Very small change, massive impact in terms of strategy and we way we work.”

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2. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 01.04.1954 Oh so it worked for you did it?
3. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Jun 2016 24 radiologists were asked to perform a familiar lung nodule detection task. A picture of a gorilla, 48 times larger than the average nodule, was inserted in the last case. 83% of radiologists did not see the gorilla. Eye-tracking showed that the majority of the those who missed the gorilla looked directly at it “The invisible gorilla strikes again” 
 Drew, Vo & Wolfe 
 Psychol Sci. Sep 2013; 24(9): 1848–1853
4. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Jun 2016 Cynefin: making sense of the world so we can act in it There are three basic types of system: ordered, complex and chaotic. Complex systems have propensities and dispositions but no linear material cause In Cynefin order is divided into ‘obvious’ & complicated and the fifth domain) disorder. The boundary between Obvious and Chaotic is show as a cliff, or a catastrophic failure arising from complacency. Complicated Governing constraints sense-analyse-respond Good Practice Obvious Rigid constraints sense-categorise-respond Best Practice Chaotic Absence of constraints act-sense-respond Novel Practice Complex Enabling constraints probe-sense-respond Emergent Practice 1 2a 2b 3
5. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Jun 2016 Mapping & shifting dispositional states 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Doing it Right An intense drive to achieve Present Past Future Peers Management Self-imposed Lacking and needed Over the top stressful Situation relevant to… Pressure coming from… Sense of urgency is… Creating new process Allocating responsibility All about sharing failure Fairness is about 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Doing it Right Well defined processes and procedures
6. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. Culture scan (one triad of six) The most important thing in this example was Acting intuitively, instantly The situation was analysed logically People thought deeply and made decisions based on principles Colour coding by demographics Each dot represents a story or picture that can be interrogated to explain the numbers
7. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Jun 2016 Understanding nuanced differences 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 100 Doing it Right An intense drive to achieve 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 Doing it Right An intense drive to achieve 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 100 Doing it Right Well defined processes and procedures 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Doing it Right Well defined processes and procedures 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Freedom too far Deadlines too far 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 20 40 60 80 100 Over the top stressful Pressure from management 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Over the top stressful Pressure from management 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 20 40 60 80 Over the top stressful Pressure from self 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Over the top stressful Pressure from self 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 100 Self Imposed An intense drive to achieve 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Self Imposed An intense drive to achieve 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Freedom too far Deadlines too far
8. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 01.04.1954 Systemic risk COMPLEX COMPLEX to COMPLICATED COMPLICATED OBVIOUS CHAOS
10. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 01.04.1954 Nothing pleases people more than to go on thinking what they have always thought, and at the same time imagine that they are thinking something new and daring: it combines the advantage of security and the delight of adventure. T S Eliot by Patrick Heron
12. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 01.04.1954 Sin Practice ill informed by theory; the it worked for me error Aggregation, deconstruction & linear approaches to complexity Certification & accreditation pyramid selling schemes Use of manufacturing metaphors & techniques in a service environment Waiting for requirements rather than articulating needs & opportunities Focus on qualities in people rather than on linkages between them Idealised models: simplistic not simple
14. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Jun 2016 Basic heuristics For action Finely grained objects Distributed cognition Disintermediation To avoid Retrospective coherence Premature convergence Pattern entrainment At its simplest What can I change? Where can I monitor the effect of change? Where can I amplify success or dampen failure?